[NL20-NL50] check shove

    • bonecore
      Joined: 02.11.2009 Posts: 1,057
      (i played really aggressive that session and he called one of my raises with A5s defending the blind... he is also passive postflop... he checked behind a straight draw on river because 3 flush cards)

      shorthanded i was UG with QK ... raised and got a minreraise by button .... so i called

      flop came 10 J 8
      i checked , he bet and i shoved (he had 90 BB) , he called (AJ)

      pokerstrategy equilator says:
      on flop-->river
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 44.545 % 44.545 % 0.000 % 55.455 % KdQh
      Player 2: 55.455 % 55.455 % 0.000 % 44.545 % AcJc

      i know i made a bad checkshove because i can NOT fold much hands that reraise
      but if i knew he had AJ i would do the same .

      my question is: do you think it is a coin flip against AJ ?
      and if you knew he had AJ would you do the same play?
  • 2 replies
    • DoigteurFou
      Joined: 16.08.2007 Posts: 1,529
      If I knew he had a jack, I would do the same. We have 6+8 = 14 outs against a jack (maybe a few discounted that would give him two pairs) which gives you around 40% equity. With fold equity added it is clrearly +EV imo.4

      With your "chove" we have no information about the sacks sizes. A shove as a too big overbet is almost allways bad!
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      c/rai on that spot is too big. He is not folding better hands, expect AK/AQ and you´re very often bad shape against TT+

      board: JhTs5c
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KQ 36.39% 171,752 2,304
      TT-AA, AJ 63.61% 301,144 2,304

      even if you add AQ, Ak in his c-bet range it doesn´t change much

      board: JhTs5c
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      KQ 32.53% 275,336 5,760
      TT-AA, AJ-AK 67.47% 574,264 5,760

      so you´re always getting all-in as 35% equity, sometimes crushed by sets and sometimes flipping with AJ.
      I think best play would be c/c flop and then evaluate on the turn. If you see in his bet size it is weak, then you can c/rai and expect to get folds, if not then best just to fold yourself