[NL2-NL10] NL10 Rush - flopped set

    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      This is a hand from NL10 Rush, UTG+1 is playing 16/8/2.3 with no 3-bets so far over 273 hands. MP1 is playing 20/20/0.5 after 20 hands. The rest of the table was playing pretty tight.

      I call here IP because I think UTG+1 is almost always calling the tiny 3-bet and hardly ever coming over the top. I think a squeeze is unlikely given the other players at the table and I'm getting good IP odds against MP1's strong range.

      I call on the flop because I'm happy to go to the turn 3 ways. The C/R on the flop by UTG+1 represents a pretty narrow range three ways and I think shows a huge amount of strength. I don't like folding a set but maybe this is a fold given the hands he's repping here are probably only JJ, 66 and, occassionally AK of spades, KK and AA?


      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      MP2 ($7.65)
      Hero (MP3) ($10.82)
      CO ($3.76)
      Button ($5.40)
      SB ($10.86)
      BB ($10.15)
      UTG ($3.75)
      UTG+1 ($18.87)
      MP1 ($10.08)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3:spade: , 3:club:
      1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.20, MP1 raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.30

      Flop: ($1.65) J:spade: , 6:spade: , 3:diamond: (3 players)
      UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets $1, Hero calls $1, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, MP1 calls $2.50, Hero raises to $10.32 (All-In), UTG+1 raises to $17.14, MP1 calls $6.08 (All-In)

      Turn: ($31.87) 6:heart: (3 players, 2 all-in)

      River: ($31.87) J:diamond: (3 players, 2 all-in)

      Total pot: $31.87 | Rake: $2
  • 6 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello JonikoP,

      I don't think that we can get away from here, he sometimes may pick such a line also with overpairs, never know him and what we can likely include into his range and against it we have pretty good equity. Therefore I am also going broke. Take into account also that there is a lot of dead money and likely the other guy is also coming with us. Just curious, what did they both have then?

      Best regards.
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Thanks Veriz,

      UTG+1 showed up with 66 and MP1 had AA.

      I think the decision is close on the flop because his c/r line on this board is extremely strong three ways and he his stats suggest he's not very aggressive generally.

      If I'm ever folding a set on a dry board, this is probably it.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by JonikoP
      Thanks Veriz,

      UTG+1 showed up with 66 and MP1 had AA.

      I think the decision is close on the flop because his c/r line on this board is extremely strong three ways and he his stats suggest he's not very aggressive generally.

      If I'm ever folding a set on a dry board, this is probably it.
      And then cry when seeing him playing his overpair this way? :f_biggrin: Nah, I don't think that I would fold it in this situation without any good note or good reason.
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Given the action pre-flop how many overpairs do you think are in his range?

      I think he almost never has AA or KK here. Min-raise calling OOP in a 3-way pot this is just too unlikely with these hands so I'm taking them out of his range without some specific read.

      That leaves, perhaps, QQ and AJ but I think it is unlikely that a passive player c/rs with either of these hands in this spot.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by JonikoP
      Given the action pre-flop how many overpairs do you think are in his range?

      I think he almost never has AA or KK here. Min-raise calling OOP in a 3-way pot this is just too unlikely with these hands so I'm taking them out of his range without some specific read.

      That leaves, perhaps, QQ and AJ but I think it is unlikely that a passive player c/rs with either of these hands in this spot.
      If you are saying that you want to fold it on flop, then rather don't Call at all and don't play such small PPs for set.
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Thanks man,

      I did stack off but just wanted to test it out.

      Cheers!