After playing about 22000 hands I felt a bit unlucky about loosing some buy-ins after pushing allin. In many cases it was a recurring pattern, finding myself at one table with a maniacish player, waiting for an ok to good hand, getting allin with him, being moderate to big favourite and then losing. I play microstakes, so it is not uncommon to meet such players there and I thought they would be easy money, but actually it was me boosting their bankroll.

I wanted to know how exactly unlucky I was and this is what I've find out. In hand history I've found my allin hands (130 of them) and based on equity given by Holdem Manager I ran simulations to see how many hands I could had won if I had been a bit more lucky.

Below is probability (based on 100000 simulated outcomes) of winning various number of my all-in games. In reality I had won 76.

To see what is the probability of having better results than mine I computed a distribution function based on the above distribution.

So I'am a member of elite 1% population (actually 99.5% players would run better than me). I'am honestly moved to be in a such distinctive group.

What else to say? There is actually no guarantee to have any better results in the future. Randomness is just random after all

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