[NL20-NL50] nl50 Rush - KK 3b pot v aggro reg

    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($107)
      BB ($15.70)
      UTG ($207)
      UTG+1 ($26.20)
      CO ($50)
      BTN ($73.05)

      Dealt to Hero K:spade: K:diamond:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $6, fold, BTN calls $4.50

      FLOP ($12.50) T:spade: J:club: 8:spade:

      Hero bets $6, BTN raises to $18.75, Hero calls $12.75

      TURN ($50) T:spade: J:club: 8:spade: K:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $48.30 (AI), Hero calls $48.30

      RIVER ($146) T:spade: J:club: 8:spade: K:club: A:club:

      villains is a very good aggressive reg: 21/18/4 wts 21, fld vs 3b 61%, stl BU 42%, raise cb 27% (41) raise cb 3b pot 44% (9).

      What should our plan for this hand be on the flop and turn? Given villains stats, can we ever fold our overpair and what kind of board/action would we need?
      If I did not turn top set, would I still have a call of villains shove?

  • 3 replies
    • amplifyd
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      I think he often got you in bad shape on flop - most of his draws have got lots of outs if not combo draw and so if he raise on this flop I think it's often TT/JJ/JT/88 or FD+GS or FD+pair. Plus when You bet/call you are turning face up imo - I would rather decide on flop to just shove or fold (but actually I think I would fold)

      I don't think he turn up with pure bluff on this flop - since if he's thinking he knows its not a good flop to do so.
    • Tim64
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Y, I agree its an unpleasant spot to face a raise, but given his stats of raising flop cb (44% in 3b pot) and low fold vs 3b I guess his range can be pretty wide here (certainly wider than the nut range you give of {TT/JJ/JT/88 or FD+GS or FD+pair}).
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      with his size he is not really doing that mostly as bluff, but at the same times there are too many draws that you can´t really b/f your overpairs, so I´d prefer shoving before scare card would come and you have to c/f your hand