[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max Rush, Rivered set - good enough?

    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      The opponent is kinda calling station, 37/24/0.9 during 76 hands.

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (Button) ($13.13)
      SB ($14.35)
      BB ($44.47)
      UTG ($3.59)
      MP ($38.44)
      CO ($9.95)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
      1 fold, MP bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

      Flop: ($1) 9, A, 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1) 2 (3 players)
      SB checks, MP checks, Hero checks

      River: ($1) 8 (3 players)
      SB bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, SB raises to $6.55, Hero ???

      So my set here looks really sexy as there are basically no completed draws possible, but an aggression from this guy looks suspiciously. Of course I need to raise his river bet for value, but his raise is clearly for value also. What do I beat here? All kinds of two pair (A8, A9, 98), lower stupidly slowplayed sets (22, 33). I am beat only by AA (would be hard to believe that though), 99 and 54. Shove or smooth call? I have 48,8% equity against this range according to Pokerstove, so I guess a shove would be justified here?
  • 7 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Bliausmas,

      If I had 99 in this situation then I would likely consider shoving but this time I think I'd rather make the crying Call and to be ahead and not see 45 or anything like that, he could be slowplaying. I just don't see what he would raise that big, seems like he feels so secure about his hand. Therefore I'd rather just Call. Just curious what did he have then?

      Best regards.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Hi veriz, thanks for your answer. He had 54o here. I actually felt I'm beat when I shoved, but everyone's clever when it's too late I guess :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Hi veriz, thanks for your answer. He had 54o here. I actually felt I'm beat when I shoved, but everyone's clever when it's too late I guess :)
      Yep, next time you will know. :) Just for the given reason that fish never start to raise like that with worse, often times they just do have here the nuts. At least you learned something, that's why downswing or anything like that are good for. :)
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Yeah, I had a severe downswing (~-25BI) some days ago, full of sick coolers. Of course there were a lot of situations where I just didn't have another choice but to go broke (i.e. middle set vs. top set, or flopped J high flush vs. flopped K high flush), but I realize now that I could actually minimize my losses in a lot of situations. Also I should listen to my "sixth sense" more in this type of situations :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Yeah, I had a severe downswing (~-25BI) some days ago, full of sick coolers. Of course there were a lot of situations where I just didn't have another choice but to go broke (i.e. middle set vs. top set, or flopped J high flush vs. flopped K high flush), but I realize now that I could actually minimize my losses in a lot of situations. Also I should listen to my "sixth sense" more in this type of situations :)
      That's a lot of BIs. :( And that hurts really to our BR. But keep in mind if you don't have good BR for the level then just move down. It's always better to do that rather than losing your whole BR.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      It hurts even more for a mindset, at least for me :) But there are no problems with my BRM so far, I've busted some times before (but who didn't :f_biggrin: ), and now I use very conservative BRM, so even after this bad downswing (probably the worst in my "career") I still had ~70BI left for this level. Now I always move up a limit only when I beat the current one. I "beat the limit" when I have +25BI net profit in a single limit starting with NL2, and +5BI for every level up (i.e. +35BI for NL10). I do that independently from my BR size though, so it might be -EV sometimes (I guess you won't find a lot of players who still play NL10 while having like 40BI for NL25), but as far as I'm not beating any limit perfectly, I don't want to take too much risk.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      It hurts even more for a mindset, at least for me :) But there are no problems with my BRM so far, I've busted some times before (but who didn't :f_biggrin: ), and now I use very conservative BRM, so even after this bad downswing (probably the worst in my "career") I still had ~70BI left for this level. Now I always move up a limit only when I beat the current one. I "beat the limit" when I have +25BI net profit in a single limit starting with NL2, and +5BI for every level up (i.e. +35BI for NL10). I do that independently from my BR size though, so it might be -EV sometimes (I guess you won't find a lot of players who still play NL10 while having like 40BI for NL25), but as far as I'm not beating any limit perfectly, I don't want to take too much risk.
      I actually like the way you take it. It's always better to play more conservative BRM than some aggressive one. You will just feel a lot safer to play at NL25 when you having bigger BR. Keep going the great work!