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[NL2-NL10] Jj Nl10 Fr

    • muel294
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      2/3 pot and play bet/call or bet/push on the turn a better line??

      villain = 48(VPIP)/0(PFR)/36(AFq)/77(hands)

      River - I am getting approximately 2:1, if I am a 2:1 'dog' I have to be good here at least 33% of the time for this to be a break even or better call on the river right?

      (1/(1+2) = 1/3 = 33%)

      The above is a concept I have recently become aware of after reading some of the poker blueprint (by tri 'slowhabit' nguyen) which I bought recently. What I am struggling to understand is how we estimate how often we are ahead during a hand?

      Presumably we can do this after the hand using something like pokerstove or the equilator, but in the heat of the moment are we just guessing?

      Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (LP): $10.00
      CO: $10.20
      BTN: $5.13
      SB: $2.16
      BB: $5.50
      UTG: $6.39
      UTG+1: $11.03
      MP: $10.28
      MP+1: $11.16

      SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J:club: J:diamond:

      fold, fold, MP calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.50, CO calls $0.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) 5:club: A:club: J:heart:
      MP checks, Hero bets $1.13, fold, MP calls $1.13

      Turn: ($3.91, 2 players) 6:club:
      MP checks, Hero bets $2.00, MP calls $2.00

      River: ($7.91, 2 players) T:club:
      MP bets $6.65, Hero calls $6.37

      Hero shows J:club: J:diamond: (Flush, Ace High) (PreFlop 88%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
      MP shows 3:spade: J:spade: (One Pair, Jacks) (PreFlop 12%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
      Hero wins $19.62
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello musabasjoo,

      Yes, on river we need to be ahead like 31,35% to make a break-even Call. But overall, I'd rather bet bigger on flop, ~$1,30 and bigger on turn as played, ~$3,20 or something similar. When he has the ace there he will very likely pay us off and also might Call us with K:club: . Also we would have an easy shove on river. As played on river, it's kinda close, although sometimes I see him shoving there also with weaker hands as weaker flush which he got pissed because 4th :club: came, as well Aces, maybe 2pair and etcs, therefore Calling should be doable. Just bet bigger on every street and would be much easier decision. For example sometimes if we were against very passive opponent, I'd rather even fold it there.

      Best regards.