# [NL2-NL10] Jj Nl10 Fr

• Bronze
Joined: 06.06.2009
2/3 pot and play bet/call or bet/push on the turn a better line??

villain = 48(VPIP)/0(PFR)/36(AFq)/77(hands)

River - I am getting approximately 2:1, if I am a 2:1 'dog' I have to be good here at least 33% of the time for this to be a break even or better call on the river right?

(1/(1+2) = 1/3 = 33%)

The above is a concept I have recently become aware of after reading some of the poker blueprint (by tri 'slowhabit' nguyen) which I bought recently. What I am struggling to understand is how we estimate how often we are ahead during a hand?

Presumably we can do this after the hand using something like pokerstove or the equilator, but in the heat of the moment are we just guessing?

Pacific Poker - \$0.10 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

Hero (LP): \$10.00
CO: \$10.20
BTN: \$5.13
SB: \$2.16
BB: \$5.50
UTG: \$6.39
UTG+1: \$11.03
MP: \$10.28
MP+1: \$11.16

SB posts SB \$0.05, BB posts BB \$0.10

Pre Flop: (\$0.15) Hero has J J

fold, fold, MP calls \$0.10, fold, Hero raises to \$0.50, CO calls \$0.50, fold, fold, fold, MP calls \$0.40

Flop: (\$1.65, 3 players) 5 A J
MP checks, Hero bets \$1.13, fold, MP calls \$1.13

Turn: (\$3.91, 2 players) 6
MP checks, Hero bets \$2.00, MP calls \$2.00

River: (\$7.91, 2 players) T
MP bets \$6.65, Hero calls \$6.37

Hero shows J J (Flush, Ace High) (PreFlop 88%, Flop 98%, Turn 100%)
MP shows 3 J (One Pair, Jacks) (PreFlop 12%, Flop 2%, Turn 0%)
Hero wins \$19.62