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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50 - Rivered set

    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($52.85)
      BB ($50)
      UTG ($28.80)
      UTG+1 ($120)
      CO ($51.50)
      BTN ($93.70)

      Dealt to Hero 6:club: 6:diamond:

      UTG raises to $1.75, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

      FLOP ($5.25) Q:heart: 7:spade: 5:club:

      Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

      TURN ($5.25) Q:heart: 7:spade: 5:club: J:heart:

      Hero bets $3.10, BB calls $3.10, UTG calls $3.10

      RIVER ($14.55) Q:heart: 7:spade: 5:club: J:heart: 6:heart:

      Hero bets $8, BB raises to $22, UTG folds, Hero folds

      BB wins $29.10

      My biggest leak atm is that my W$SD stat is a bit too low atm coz whenever I encounter a play that doesn't make sense, I go for the bluffcatch usually and end up seeing a weird monster ... So I've been trying to evaluate my river decision extra hard recently ...

      Which has led me to a lot of spots where I'm not sure whether I made a good fold or a weak one ... like this ...

      On the turn I just decide to attack the dead money since it looks like UTG gave up on the pot, though this might be a bit of a bad card to do it on coz now all sorts of draws possibly emerged ...

      Anyways, that's not what I wanted to talk/ask about ... the river ...

      River I hit & get raised ... what does villain c flop, just call turn and raise river?

      Imo only things that make sense here ... is a backdoor FD he picked up@T which he hit ... or like 89 that picked up a double gutter and also hit ...

      Also T9/KT have OESD that missed ... and villain has 8.3AF !!! over 204 hand sample ... but only 33% aggro frequency @River.

      Getting 3:1, I guess I should make the call?

      EDIT: Damn yeah, this should be easy call now that I stoved his possible holdings ... :f_cry:

      EDIT02: Though UTG is still in the hand, I doubt he's bluffraising me on the river with a busted OESD three way
  • 5 replies
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 8,028
      Y, I am afraid I cant fold this, although i dont think the fold is bad.

      I think stabbing the turn is not good. No Jx is folding and loads of draws possible also, as you said.

      I think on the river our best line may be to check/call, since we are rarely good against a river raising range, but will be ok from time to time vs a betting range.

      edit: the fold vs raise on the river is good imo - 6 :heart: completes too many of their mutual draws. Not sure whether ch/f or ch/c is best.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Yes, though I'm never considering c/c nor c/f there coz there are also many marginal hands that just check behind and make me lose value against ...

      So my options are b/f or b/c ...
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      Hey,
      Looks interesting hand. But i am not so sure. Is it best idea to bet on the turn? Cause if u dont hit u are most likely just ch/folding the river. And even when u hit then i think ch/call looks pretty interesting. Cause the player can see that u are stealing on the turn and will bet river with very wide range. Missed draws, two pair, one pair... Air ??? So i am not really sure now.
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Yes, already wrote that the turn bet obv isn't very good in that spot, lets not focus on that :D

      River play is the key question.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Against unknown really hard to say. Usually players don´t raise that river with missed draws and also with two pair hands, so then it should be b/f. But since you lead out turn with no equity I think b/c river is better, since sometimes you´re ahead and you can make better decisions in the future.