[NL20-NL50] [FR] NL50, AKo(mp2) - vs pot size river bet

    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

      MP1 ($50.75)
      Hero (MP2) ($96.05)
      CO ($51.35)
      Button ($56.95)
      SB ($49.50)
      BB ($50.70)
      UTG ($51)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A:heart: , K:spade:
      UTG bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 4 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 6:spade: , 8:diamond: , 5:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.30, UTG calls $2.30

      Turn: ($8.35) 7:diamond: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      River: ($8.35) A:club: (2 players)
      UTG bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

      Total pot: $23.35 | Rake: $1.10

      Hi!

      Villain is a nit reg playing 12/10/2.9 but his river AF being 6.0 with 44% AFq. He cbets 65% and I have 2.5k hands on him.

      When checked to me on flop I decide to take a stab, cuz checking on drawy boards like these usually means opponent is giving up the hand. To my surprise he calls and turn is a really ugly card that completes many draw. I was sure if he had anykind of draw he would cb that flop not like he is leveling with me or smth.

      When checked to on turn I think I am either dead or prolly have sd value so I take the free card.

      River hits and he insta pots it. It was so strange and my call was based mostly on size and timing tells + very high river AF.

      What do you think?

      Thanks!
  • 7 replies
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      firstly on the turn i dont think u have any SD value if u dont improve.
      His c/c range on the flop looks alot like 77, or a FD (perhaps also 44). I think u should just fold the river b/c i think there are just way too many combination of hands that have u beat.
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      How do you determine nit ch flop range? I mean you say hand like 77 is not cb the flop, I have to disagree. I am sure he is betting with a oesd + pair. 44 I am not sure, but would he bet so big so fast with an idiot end st8??

      Plus I think it is unrealistic to think he wouldn`t play A :diamond: T+ this way. Problem is if he makes flush on turn. Does he bet it out or go for a c/r? If going for a c/r than I understand his line. Otherwise I believe it cannot be other than a bluff especially with his river AF.
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      Nh, make note ;) .
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      Originally posted by Gregor86
      How do you determine nit ch flop range? I mean you say hand like 77 is not cb the flop, I have to disagree. I am sure he is betting with a oesd + pair. 44 I am not sure, but would he bet so big so fast with an idiot end st8??

      Plus I think it is unrealistic to think he wouldn`t play A :diamond: T+ this way. Problem is if he makes flush on turn. Does he bet it out or go for a c/r? If going for a c/r than I understand his line. Otherwise I believe it cannot be other than a bluff especially with his river AF.
      If villian is a nit reg y do u think he will c/c flop with a A high+backdoor FD?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If he went pot control with overpair or one pair hand I think he would mostly c/f turn if you bet 5$, so although you have showdown value I´d still turn my hand into bluff and bet turn to make better hands fold
      River is strange: not sure what hands he´d expect you to call and I think he would mostly check his showdown hands. So you can call, although on that board I think fold is better. 12/10 usually doesn´t bluff there after c/c flop
    • TetraQuark
      TetraQuark
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Ok not that result is important but he had A :diamond: Q :spade: So this is quite interesting to note down and abuse in future, right?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Gregor86
      Ok not that result is important but he had A :diamond: Q :spade: So this is quite interesting to note down and abuse in future, right?
      yep, didn´t expect that big valuebetwith Ax hand