[ICM] calculating 1/2/3 place probabilities

    • Avatars91
      Joined: 18.12.2009 Posts: 2,689
      How do you calculate the probability of a player obtaining 1/2/3 places in a FR SNG? (I didn't understand the system in the ICM article)

      All tickets are put in a drum and we draw for first place. So with a quarter of all chips, you will be first 25% of the time. After this draw, all of the tickets belonging to the winner are removed and we draw for second place. This is repeated for third place. If this procedure is repeated many times, we can get the probability of each player obtaining a particular place by keeping track of how many times they win it
  • 1 reply
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Did you watch my video on the ICM? If not, take a look.

      Suppose the players left are A, B, C, and D. If player A places second, the winner could be player B, player C, or player D. The chance to place second to player B is assumed to be the probability that B wins times the chance to win a tournament just between A, C, and D.

      Probability(BA) = stack(B)/(total chips) x stack(A)/(stack(A)+stack(C)+stack(D)).

      To get the chance that A is second, you add the probability of BA, CA, and DA. This is not something you should expect to do at the table. What you can do is use an ICM calculator like my program ICM Explorer to learn to predict the level of risk aversion in common situations, and use that knowledge at the table.