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[NL2-NL10] nl10 77 set played very badly

    • ockerdoc
      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 145
      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
      The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

      UTG: $11.00
      UTG+1: $9.72
      MP1: $13.25
      MP2: $2.45
      CO: $8.38
      Hero (BTN): $14.13
      SB: $10.04
      BB: $16.81

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 7:club: 7:spade:
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10, SB calls $0.05, BB checks

      Flop: ($0.50) 8:diamond: J:heart: 7:heart: (5 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB folds, UTG raises to $10.90, MP2 folds, Hero calls $9.40

      Turn: ($22.55) Q:spade: (2 players)

      River: ($22.55) A:heart: (2 players)

      Man i played this so bad i can't quite believe it.....villains stats were like 15/4/0/0 43 hands.....i didn't even look at her stats i just snap called didn't even take a good look at the board ....what a muppet!! looking at it now its obvious she's holding the nuts and i shoulda folded to her shove.....very bad session indeed!!! just hope i learn from it..
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello ockerdoc,

      Actually the sample size ain't that huge either. Also for knowing more about his hand you also have to know his WTS and W$SD but overall I think that we don't have that many stats on him. But for given as played, we likely have to raise on flop since we have to also protect our hand from any kind of draw but when he decides to ship it it's kinda close, he could still be holding T9 there or even better set. Therefore if he is more kinda passive guy then I'd rather fold it as the stats show at the moment. Since more often I think he would just Call if he had there TP or something similar.

      But overall if you like the variance and rather go for it then it ain't that big mistake to Call it there.

      For example against 2pairs, sets and straight our equity:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 50,083% 49,437% 1,293% 49,270% JJ, 88, J8s-J7s, T9s, 87s, J8o-J7o, T9o, 87o
      Player 2: 49,917% 49,270% 1,293% 49,437% 77

      But we might as well add sometimes even TPs when he is more kinda looser going to showdowns and also might add few draws which may put us even into favorite. And sometimes maybe even badly played overpairs, I wouldn't be surprised. :)

      Best regards.