[NL2-NL10] AQ nl100 mss

    • Aimboy
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      I guess that I have to paste mss hands here? You don't have seperate mss sub-forum?

      PokerStars - $1 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      MP+1: $104.40
      CO: $104.50
      BTN: $100.00
      SB: $66.50
      BB: $166.20
      Hero (UTG): $63.40
      UTG+1: $128.30
      MP: $119.05

      SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

      Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has A:heart: Q:spade:

      Hero raises to $3.50, fold, fold, MP+1 calls $3.50, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($8.50, 2 players) 8:diamond: 6:spade: 6:heart:
      Hero checks, MP+1 bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

      Turn: ($19.50, 2 players) Q:club:
      Hero checks, MP+1 bets $13.00, Hero calls $13.00

      River: ($45.50, 2 players) Q:heart:
      Hero bets $26.00

      15/8, 4.6 3bet, 15% coldcall (10/67), wts 25, w$sd 25, fold cb F 60, 40% raise cb F, float flop 100% (3/3) and AF 9/inf/inf, so he is very aggressive player, 150 hands

      I'm never cbetting this flop, all I can represent here is high pocket pair and my opponent would fold his worse hands eventually, but he will never fold a better hand and he would probably raise all his pocket pairs and then I would have to fold. I'm going to c/c here, because I have better hand most of the time and he is floating alomost all the time (3/3 float Flop). On turn I have a Q, and again, if my opponent has pocket pair 99-JJ, he would probably bet again, so I'm going to c/c here. On the river I don't see him betting with 99-JJ, but he would probably call, because he probably thinks that Qx is unlikely for me to have here. I'm also donkbetting any other card on the river.

      Waiting for your evaluation and sorry for my poor english :(
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Aimboy,

      My apologizes for the delay ; I had exams.

      About the description you gave me, I got some questions:
      1) How do we know for sure a 15/8 can handread?
      2) Are we bluffing one, two or three streets here for maxEV?
      3) AF 9/inf/inf is relative with 151 hands due (bet/raises)/call. Using AFq is far more better in correlation with other statistics

      From what I see, I agree betting the Flop is bad if you only are intending to bluff the Flop only.. My standard line is betting Flop & betting Turn.

      With check/calling, you are check/calling to the Queen (good card) and an Ace (Bad card to get value of the 3rd and final street with the biggest pot most of the time)

      Also consider 6 outs being 12/24% max equity if not significantly lower.

      Best regards,
    • mineriva
      Joined: 30.04.2008 Posts: 913

      Plz teach me..

      If i understand you correctly you want to cbet flop and if called cbet turn.

      I understand why we bet turn -> he luv to float so we know he often folds to turn cbet.

      My question is what about the 40% raise cbet on the flop. Is that not very high thus making the cbet not good idea?
    • kazediel
      Joined: 29.11.2009 Posts: 5,259
      Hi Aimboy

      What preflop range do you put the villain in?

      If you think his range is wide. Check/calling the flop gives you a negative freerroll. If he has a hand like broadways, AJ, AT, that cand c-b and catch and out, getting for freee part of their equity. If you make the Cbet you're going to be floated rather frequently, but that makes the spot perfect for 2 or even 3 barreling. Let's see a mathemathichal example:

      Guessing opponent folds 25%, Calls 60%, Raises 15%

      EVCbet flop=

      +0.25 x (P + (2/3 P)) (Size of the pot with our bet)
      + 0.15 x 0 (Since we fold vs a raise)
      + 0.6 x EVturn
      -2/3 P (Cost of our bet)

      = -0.25 P + 0.6 x EVturn

      Now, let's guess that in turn our barrel will make villain fold a 66% of the time


      2/3 x (P' + (2/3 P'))
      + 1/3 x 0 (Guessing 0 equity when he calls, which is not completely true)
      - 2/3 x P' (cost of the bet)

      EV turn= 4/9 P'


      EVflop= -0.25 + 0.6 EVturn
      EVturn= 4/9 x P' = 1.04 P; (P' = 7/3P)
      EVflop= -0.25 + 0.6 x (1.04 P) = 0.37 P

      So we're actually earning money By playing Bet/Bet even supposing that we never ever, are going to connect.

      On the other hand, if you think he has a tight range. What's the point on check/calling the flop? You're far behind from his range, even further from his betting range since he can still check some hands that have completely missed/have marginal SD value, so you have a check/FOLD