[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL30 OK to go broke with a straight on a 3-heart flop?

    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      On the turn I make my straight and a third heart shows up. I raise for protection because my opponent might be on a draw. However he pushes and this makes me worry, because he's not very aggressive player. So he's move indicates great strength, but can I really fold here?

      OnGame - $0.30 NL (5 max) - Holdem - 3 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      BB: $32.44
      Hero (BTN): $52.68
      SB: $29.55

      SB posts SB $0.15, BB posts BB $0.30

      Pre Flop: ($0.45) Hero has Q:club: T:spade:

      Hero raises to $0.90, fold, BB calls $0.60

      Flop: ($1.95, 2 players) 5:diamond: K:heart: 9:heart:
      BB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($1.95, 2 players) J:heart:
      BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $6.45, BB raises to $31.54 and is all-in, Hero calls $25.09

      Turn: ($65.03, 2 players) J:heart:

      River: ($65.03, 2 players) 8:diamond:

      BB shows 6:heart: Q:heart: (Flush, King High) (PreFlop 33%, Flop 49%, Turn 100%)
      Hero shows Q:club: T:spade: (Straight, King High) (PreFlop 67%, Flop 51%, Turn 0%)
      BB wins $63.53
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      However he pushes and this makes me worry, because he's not very aggressive player.


      This line tells me that your assumption here is that your opponent does not bluff (much). That means that he is value betting so we have to look at his potential range for doing so.

      All flushes, and BvB there are quite a few of them (esp 3 handed) and straights.

      If you don't expect him to raise the NFD here (and depending on the player that won't be that many offsuite aces in his range) this should be an easy raise/fold.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Your arguments make sense so, feeling like a real fish, I rechecked the hand with HUD-display. It turns out that at the moment of the hand I only had 27 hands on him. So basically I can't be very sure about his aggression factor. The problem is that at Ongame NL30 there are tons of donks cruising around and I'm constantly facing big reraises and shoves either with air or marginal hands. So at those tables folding a nut straight isn't that easy, at least for me. I don't know if this information changes your opinion on the subject, but for me it's a pretty tough spot.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      In spots where you don't have much information you have to go with your assumptions.

      For example, in this case your assumption (based on your initial post) was that he is passive. Even though it's a smallish sample that's your assumption and it's best to stick to it.

      Our assumptions in what makes or breaks this game. The more information that we have the more educated our assumptions can be.

      Now, if at this limit you feel donks on average are very aggressive and show up with junk more than anything else, you can consider calling a lot more often (or lets say they shove 1p type hands) especially with very little information on the player. This is also an assumption we are making based on the hands we have played at Nl30 on ongame.

      EDIT: I recommend you filter your HEM or PT3 for hands where you called a shove (with a good hand for example) and see what the donks show up with. Then average out how often is junk, draws, weak made hands, etc. Then you can make a more educated assumption when you face unknown donks or ones with very little info on.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think general suggestion is: if you don´t want to play for stacks then don´t raise turn, especially that big.
      I think small raise to 4 or 4.5$ is fine to charge his two pair and flushdraws, but then you also should know what you would do if he shoves and at this case I think fold is better, since people do not tend to bet/shove A high flushdraws.
      Also you can consider just calling him down to get information what hands he is betting that turn and river and if feel weakness in his bet size you can always raise river for value