[NL2-NL10] NL10FR - AK fold preflop (continued)

    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      BB is 29/2/10.0 WTS 6 over 65 hands, very fishy. UTG is a regular (1700 hands) 17/13/1.6 WTS 30, but very unpredictable, sometimes slowplays, sometimes aggressive, sometimes makes no sense at all. Against any one of them I would go AI, but multiway pot with AK does not seem a good idea to me lately :)

      please evaluate:

      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      iPoker
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      UTG ($12.41)
      UTG+1 ($12.54)
      MP1 ($9.85)
      Hero ($14.32)
      MP3 ($5.13)
      CO ($9.51)
      BTN ($12.28)
      SB ($9.78)
      BB ($4.03)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) Hero is MP2 A:heart: K:diamond:
      1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.30, 4 folds, BB goes all-in $4.03, UTG+1 goes all-in $12.54, Hero folds

      Flop: K:spade: 5:diamond: 7:heart: ($18.42, 2 players, 2 all-in)

      Turn: 10:heart: ($18.42, 2 players, 2 all-in)

      River: 10:club: ($18.42, 2 players, 2 all-in)

      Final Pot: $17.30
      UTG+1 shows
      A:spade: K:heart:
      BB shows
      J:diamond: J:club:

      UTG+1 wins $17.30 (net +$4.76)

      Hero lost $1.30
      BB lost $4.03
  • 20 replies
    • amplifyd
      amplifyd
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Hi,

      Yes I would fold here too when facing two all ins when you got AK. Don't like to 3bet a regular with AKo when a little deep - would prefer to call and play him postflop - esp given your reads. Regs just aren't spewy enough in general preflop - but postflop he is more likely to be I find.

      Hope it helps
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SilverSag,

      Actually when we decide to 3bet there it ain't a case to fold our hand. Why do you 3bet at all then? The shorty just made us even easier decision for the reason that he put dead money into the pot, therefore I'd go broke here. Otherwise I'd just Call and play against him postflop if he is more kinda tighter guy, according his PFR and often might be even better.

      Best regards.
    • MiiWiin
      MiiWiin
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 01.03.2007 Posts: 64,649
      We have to calculate whtih Ranges and 2 Pots to look if we can call or not.

      Range UTG raise/5-bet-shove: JJ+/AK
      BB: Maybe 99+/AQ+


      We have to pay 11,26$ preflop for the call


      Pot 1:

      UTG, BB, Hero

      Potsize: 4,03$ * 3 = 12,09$


      Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
      Spieler 1: 23,637% 14,863% 18,955% 66,182% AhKd
      Spieler 2: 42,778% 35,592% 15,779% 48,629% JJ+, AKs, AKo
      Spieler 3: 33,585% 30,084% 8,408% 61,508% 99+, AQs+, AQo+

      0,236 * 12,03$ = 2,84$


      Pot 2:

      UTG, Hero

      Potsize: (12,54 - 4,03) = 8,51$ * 2= 17,02$


      Equity Gewonnen UnentschiedenVerloren Hand
      Spieler 1: 39,785% 23,656% 32,258% 44,085% AhKd
      Spieler 2: 60,215% 44,085% 32,258% 23,656% JJ+, AKs, AKo

      0,398 * 17,02$ = 6,77$



      Our winnings: 2,84$ + 6,77$ = 9,61$


      9,61$ << 11,26$


      So we have to fold here.
    • Duudalinja
      Duudalinja
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      I'd like to add my 2 cents aswell. In fact I even think we can narrow regs range down - exclude JJ and maybe even some AKo as if we look at that hand from his perspective - he oR from UTG and you still 3bet him, shorty guy shoved, but he has no idea what are you going to do so he can't really call but shoving JJ/AK may be to spewy given your pretty strong move. So that just makes me think we can't call it as played even if we're looking pretty optimistic in this spot.
    • mordath
      mordath
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.11.2009 Posts: 396
      Interesting discussion on this hand. So from what I gather it seems pretty marginal/close. If OR was 100bb deep it's an easier case for calling?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by mordath
      Interesting discussion on this hand. So from what I gather it seems pretty marginal/close. If OR was 100bb deep it's an easier case for calling?
      Yes, I'd say so actually for me it's close, we had a conversation with Kaitz and we agreed that it's fine to go broke there. But also we had a conversation with MiiWiin, and as he explains that it's rather safer to fold, since against his range what he put out we get -EV.

      But overall the question is with what does BB push? For example he could easily be there some standard fish who can even ship there lets say for example JTo and we might get even our equity near to 31%? And lets say we even might able to widen up UTG range, lets say we also add AQ, then we are getting profitable Call. In such situations more often it's of course safer to fold and avoid the variance but also if for example we knew very good those kind of opponents then why not?

      And as Duudalinja mentioned, that he would exclude JJ and AKo here then I'd say I would exclude for some regs also KK, AA, since if I was the REG and thinking player I would just flat with them and let the 3better shove, or what do you think? Much better to get value.

      Overall, I came also to conclusion that it's definitely safer to fold there and avoid the variance. But you can take your calculations and try yourself, maybe you even come to better conclusion. :)
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: See, before guided by PS Strategy arcticles I would drop AK and QQ in situations like these without much thinking, but...

      then I read MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ and now these hands give me headache :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      But it's nice to read this... you guys go on, it's an interesting read...

      The way I understand it so far is:

      You look at the stats, rub your nose a bit, look at the ceiling, decide if your bankroll allows you to take a $10 hit... then randomly choose Fold or AI button and close your eyes. Later, if it doesnt work out you can find someone else to blame :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      Btw according to EquiLab even 72o has better chance of winning against AA than AKo, so maybe its better just to call the oR ... :f_eek:
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: See, before guided by PS Strategy arcticles I would drop AK and QQ in situations like these without much thinking, but...

      then I read MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ and now these hands give me headache :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      But it's nice to read this... you guys go on, it's an interesting read...

      The way I understand it so far is:

      You look at the stats, rub your nose a bit, look at the ceiling, decide if your bankroll allows you to take a $10 hit... then randomly choose Fold or AI button and close your eyes. Later, if it doesnt work out you can find someone else to blame :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      Btw according to EquiLab even 72o has better chance of winning against AA than AKo, so maybe its better just to call the oR ... :f_eek:
      Overall, I'd say just fold it there as you put the opponent on so tight range. But yes, 27o has better equity because AA blocks 2pair type of chances of AK, that's the reason. And yes, as I already said that it's better to in this situation just to Call against UTG than raise.
    • Jeffers16
      Jeffers16
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 304
      Interesting read! Working on AK, QQ pf play, at the moment I think its a big leak of mine.

      Was just wondering where you found 'MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ' SilverSag? Is it gold?

      Thanks
    • Oly0909
      Oly0909
      Silver
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 843
      Originally posted by Jeffers16
      Interesting read! Working on AK, QQ pf play, at the moment I think its a big leak of mine.

      Was just wondering where you found 'MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ' SilverSag? Is it gold?

      Thanks
      Follow this link: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/weekly-no-limit/#bronze
      And then scroll down to Columns..
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Comments on play
      - What do we want to accomplish with our 3bet?
      1) We are planning to play for stacks.
      2) We are just wanting him to fold his hand.
      3) We don't want to play in multiway pot.
      - If we get shoved from such a shorty, what's your plan?
      1) UTG Calls, I put him on range like (KK,AA), tries to trap. Since he saw us 3betting and now tries to make us shove.
      2) UTG Pushes, we could easily put him on a weaker hand, which just tries to make us fold and doesn't want to give us a free flop.
      3) Just fold the hand, and don't get yourself into trouble, rarely big EV in long run.

      Range for BB?
      - fish, could indicate that he may ship with everything, for example previous actions of him would be useful, did he shove early this way?
      - small PFR which could mean a very strong hand if he is more tighter guy.
      - 40BB stack, easy broke against him if we would be HU.
      -

      UTG range?
      - Various situation could be considered, while he is a reg and thinking player, he could easily try to trap us with KK, AA. (We could exclude them)
      - I wouldn't say that we can exclude JJ, AKo here since he is a reg or anything like that, as Duudalinja said.
      - WTS? 30%? That could easily mean that he is shipping here a bit loser, I wouldn't exclude JJ, AKo.
      - Yes, it's often times a very strong range, also for the given reason that we are 125BB deep.

      Now lets take a look into both pots and their ranges:

      Pot 1:
      Which includes UTG, BB, Hero

      Potsize: 4,03$ * 3 = 12,09$

      - Since I don't always put such a shove from a fish on nuts, I made a bit wider range for him. For example he has been shipping a lot and we could put him on such range.
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 44,028% 43,647% 0,878% 55,476% QQ-TT, AKs, AKo
      Player 2: 33,603% 32,228% 2,866% 64,906% AhKd
      Player 3: 22,370% 20,729% 3,396% 75,874% 22+, ATs+, KQs, JTs, ATo+, KQo, JTo

      Therefoer we earn from both opponents: 0,336 * 12,09 = $4,06 (Pot_1 winnings)

      Pot 2:
      Which includes UTG, Hero

      Potsize: (12,54 - 4,03) = 8,51$ * 2= 17,02$

      - If we take into account that he is trapping against us with KK, AA and we also add AQ hands into it while he just wants to get maximum fold equity with shoving.
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 54,737% 38,684% 32,105% 29,211% QQ-TT, AKs, AKo
      Player 2: 45,263% 29,211% 32,105% 38,684% AhKd

      Therefore we earn from him: 0,453 * 17,02 = $7,71 (Pot_2 winnings)

      # Our winnings total = Pot_1 + Pot_2 = 4,06 + 7,71 = 11,77

      And here I get the conclusion 11,77 >> 11,26

      And if we add the MiiWiin EV we rather get in average small loss.

      CONCLUSION

      We could also take it this way as I mentioned. :) But overall I'd say it's rather safer to fold if we 3bet. But more often don't 3bet at all against UTG raise and also while he is a regular, just Call and play postflop against him. My plan usually would be if I want to 3bet then I am also going to play for stacks against him. If we just want to get fold equity then we could even 3bet there with a lot wider range, doesn't matter what we holding and played just for fold to 3bet.
    • Jeffers16
      Jeffers16
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 304
      Originally posted by Oly0909
      Originally posted by Jeffers16
      Interesting read! Working on AK, QQ pf play, at the moment I think its a big leak of mine.

      Was just wondering where you found 'MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ' SilverSag? Is it gold?

      Thanks
      Follow this link: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/weekly-no-limit/#bronze
      And then scroll down to Columns..
      Nice, will definitely read. Thanks
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Originally posted by veriz
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: See, before guided by PS Strategy arcticles I would drop AK and QQ in situations like these without much thinking, but...

      then I read MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ and now these hands give me headache :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      But it's nice to read this... you guys go on, it's an interesting read...

      The way I understand it so far is:

      You look at the stats, rub your nose a bit, look at the ceiling, decide if your bankroll allows you to take a $10 hit... then randomly choose Fold or AI button and close your eyes. Later, if it doesnt work out you can find someone else to blame :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin: :f_biggrin:

      Btw according to EquiLab even 72o has better chance of winning against AA than AKo, so maybe its better just to call the oR ... :f_eek:
      Overall, I'd say just fold it there as you put the opponent on so tight range. But yes, 27o has better equity because AA blocks 2pair type of chances of AK, that's the reason. And yes, as I already said that it's better to in this situation just to Call against UTG than raise.
      See, the thing is that I actually did not put him on a very tight range. I was ready to shove against him alone. The thing that put me on brakes was another opponent. I thought that it will reduce my odds of winning, but from your calculations I actually realise that it's opposite - my chances are better...

      However, tbh I still do not completely grasp the concept... :f_eek: Are my odds better, because he is shortstack? What if he would be same size as us two?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Are my odds better, because he is shortstack?

      Yeah, the odds are better but not the equity. And not for the reason that he is short-stack but since he is capable of shoving there with a lot worse sometimes.

      What if he would be same size as us two?

      Then we had an easy fold. :) But overall, I guess it's also rather better if we don't take the flip and just fold it.
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Thank you, guys! This was very, very interesting made think a lot and probably learn something too :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SilverSag
      Thank you, guys! This was very, very interesting made think a lot and probably learn something too :)
      Definitely! How dangerous is to play for stacks with AK preflop. :) Rather play it passively. Good luck on the tables!
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      Can we continue this a bit? Plzzzzz? :f_cool: After all this I filtered out all my hands where I had AKo and AKs as hole cards (no QQ) and this very interesting graph came out.



      Uploaded with ImageShack.us

      First, few comments about the graph. This is from a sample of 107K hands of NL10 I played. It is all played in FR (average ~9 players/hand) and these are ALL my NL10 games. These are played according to PS BSS (I played SSS a bit before, but those are taken out). I have tried to follow PS Strategy and I have not read any other strategies.

      Points of interest in the graph:

      A. Moved from Everest to Titan (as you can see, no change there)
      B. Read MiiWiin's article about playing AK and QQ (here you can see what effect a single article can have on winrate :f_biggrin: )
      C. Not sure what happened there... Downswing? Lack of confidence? Fancy plays?

      As you can see, before I read the article, I was basically braking even with AK. My nonSD graph is perfectly smooth, but... so is the SD, just different way :f_frown: I guess that shows how much I suck at postflop play.

      I also think that it clearly shows that I have a major leak here...

      Also other hole card data indicate that:

      QQ win% 77.14 winrate 1.56BB/100h
      JJ 72.08 1.67
      AKo 74.79 0.08(!)
      AKs 75.99 0.56

      My win percentage with Ak is on par with QQ and JJ, but winrate with those hands is significantly lower... :f_frown:
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      All in all I would like to sum up the lessons learned in this discussion.

      - I should go AI pf with AK much less than with QQ
      - I have better chances if I play it out, rather than going AI pf
      - it's still better to play it aggressively by 3betting, calling only when initial raise comes from very tight opponent in EP
      - if there is a heavy action before me (2 or more players, 3bet or even 4bet) it is safer not to get involved at all and fold

      My chances are better, if:
      - villain is lose
      - villain is shortstack
      - villain is LP/blinds
      - villain has high pf 3bet % (what is high here? more than 7-8%? more than 10%? )

      My chances are worse if:
      - villain is tight
      - villain is in EP
      - villain has deep stack
      - its a multiway pot

      Anyways, I think I will need to evaluate more hands with AK... :f_cool:
    • SilverSag
      SilverSag
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 512
      bump :evil:
    • 1
    • 2