[NL2-NL10] Nl10 Sh Qt

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($13.53)
      Hero ($10.85)
      CO ($2)
      BTN ($19.01)

      Dealt to Hero Q:diamond: T:spade:

      fold, BTN raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.20, BTN calls $0.90, fold

      FLOP ($2.70) K:heart: 8:spade: T:club:

      Hero bets $1.30, BTN calls $1.30

      TURN ($5.30) K:heart: 8:spade: T:club: 8:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      RIVER ($5.30) K:heart: 8:spade: T:club: 8:heart: 2:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      BTN 21/17/2.6 fold to cbet 57, WTSD 26, W$SD 57, steal from BTN 43, hands 506

      SB 43/5/2.6 37 hands

      Preflop BTN has a wide range, and fish SB has big stack so I try to squeeze. The bad thing is that BTN has low fold to cbet, so maybe I should just fold this hand preflop.

      On flop now as he has that low fold to cbet I bet to get value. But question is if my second pair is enough. But at least I have some information from his actions.

      On turn and river I cannot bet anymore, too big pot for this hand.
  • 9 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      Preflop: What's his fold to 3bet? But it's doable. If it's some higher one, if rather Calls a lot 3bets then I'd rather skip with this hand.

      As played
      Postflop: I'd still Bet against him, our hand has some kind of showdown value and I don't want to Call his bet either, rather betting is stronger. He might still Call us with any kind of GS or something similar.

      Best regards.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Fold to 3bet is 78. Is it enough?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Fold to 3bet is 78. Is it enough?
      Rather a fold, the easier example is how to understand either we are far ahead of his stealing range or not and do we win money in long run is to play around with the equilator.

      For example, he steals with ~40%

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 56,265% 54,508% 3,513% 41,979% 33+, A2s+, K2s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T8s+, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J9o+
      Player 2: 43,735% 41,979% 3,513% 54,508% QTo

      Therefore I'd rather not 3bet here, unless he is folding enough of the times. Just play around and take an overview with what it is more profitable to 3bet and with what not.

      Of course or squeeze is much stronger than a normal raise against him. But you have to take into consideration also that he might think that the SB might be loose enough to play against you and he is Calling with that idea to have position on you both.

      For conclusion I'd say such a move is definitely doable and it can be profitable also, but the problem lays postflop and how easily can he fold the hand and do we need to 2nd barrel there a lot and stuff. For example against this opponent we might even sometimes have to 2nd barrel and what would cost more than a half a stack and that's too risky unless you feel very comfortable playing him postflop.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Then what equity against his steal range would we need with our hand? Even if we have 50% that does not mean that he is calling with range that we beat. He still calls with range that beats our QT. So we can only win from fold equity.

      Or we could think that his real fold to 3bet is like 70 instead of 78 because he has position on both of us.

      So if we don't count SB then we invest 1.1$ to win a 1.8$ pot. So we need 0.61 fold equity from BTN. So we win in the long run from fold equity, don't we? And if SB calls, we outplay him post flop - we have initiative and position.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Then what equity against his steal range would we need with our hand? Even if we have 50% that does not mean that he is calling with range that we beat. He still calls with range that beats our QT. So we can only win from fold equity.

      And that's exactly the reason why I'd 3bet against him with better than. As you say that we win only from fold equity then go for it and 3bet with any2, why are you picking QTo? It doesn't make sense, to 3bet with anything against his range that's the point, in case he Calls we have to have at least some equity against his range and the higher the better. Just set for example 27o and then QTo, which do you think wins more money in the long run? As you said we are winning from fold equity.

      Or we could think that his real fold to 3bet is like 70 instead of 78 because he has position on both of us.

      Yeah, could be. It a lot depends on your previous actions. Have you been 3betting him early on, what were your previous actions, or maybe you somehow tilted him and also does he play a lot of postflop games with the loose fish? There are a lot of factors and we could even consider the fold to 3bet being lower easily if some of those factors are true what I asked for.

      So if we don't count SB then we invest 1.1$ to win a 1.8$ pot. So we need 0.61 fold equity from BTN. So we win in the long run from fold equity, don't we? And if SB calls, we outplay him post flop - we have initiative and position.

      Yeah the equity calculation is totally correct and that's what I also mentioned that it's profitable to 3bet there but the question more likely is on the opponents play and table dynamics. And of course against SB it would be much easier to play but I am more likely talking about the BU guy. Can we easily overplay him and such stuff and would be crappy if he Called, since then would also SB call and in 3-way pot we don't have that much postflop equity, kinda have to give it up without a hit.

      Hopefully it helped, if you have anything more to discuss, just ask. I am happy to discuss over such situations. Maybe we even will come to better conclusion.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Hopefully it helped, if you have anything more to discuss, just ask. I am happy to discuss over such situations. Maybe we even will come to better conclusion.


      Ok :)

      in case he Calls we have to have at least some equity against his range and the higher the better.


      So I now think I can find the range with which I can squeeze this way:

      If he steals 40%, and folds to 3bet 70% of the time, so it means he plays 30% of the hands which he steals. So his calling range should be 40*0.3 = 12.

      So if we want to have an edge agaisnt his calling range, we lets say should squeeze with 11% range, which is 66+, A8s+, KTs+, ATo+, KQo

      Am I right?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Yeah, I'd rather say so against that kind of opponent for as I see such a fold to 3bet is pretty small, more often he does Call us there, that's the problem. Just ain't worth to fight with such guys, if we were against some bigger fold to 3bet we could also add fold equity into it and make the range even looser.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,071
      Thanks, now I will be better at squeezing. Earlier I was seeing from videos squeezes with not that strong hands, but didn't know how to choose which hands can I squeeze so I was like guessing :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c
      Thanks, now I will be better at squeezing. Earlier I was seeing from videos squeezes with not that strong hands, but didn't know how to choose which hands can I squeeze so I was like guessing :)
      Yeah there are videos which teach like to squeeze any2 but from my perspective why not to choose a better hand which we also may hit good and even extract value postflop not only base on fold equity preflop. Widening your range does not give you bigger winrate it just lets you get more situations where you might get a bigger winrate if you play them correctly and according to the opponent.