[NL2-NL10] JJ nl100 mss

    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Full Tilt - $1 NL - Holdem - 8 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      UTG: $103.60
      UTG+1: $124.90
      MP: $113.20
      MP+1: $38.60
      Hero (CO): $38.90
      BTN: $100.00
      SB: $103.75
      BB: $137.55

      SB posts SB $0.50, BB posts BB $1.00

      Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero has J:spade: J:heart:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to $8.00, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $5.00

      Flop: ($17.50, 2 players) 8:club: 4:spade: 2:diamond:
      UTG+1 bets $9.00, Hero raises to $30.90 and is all-in, fold

      Villain is 16/12, open raise MP 14%, 70% fold to 3bet, wts 25/52, AF flop 2.6, donkbet flop 40%(40/103), donkbet/fold flop 20%(2/10). I don't like my flop play here, if villain is donkbeting that often he is probably bluffing. I think that I should call here, I'm also aware that I don't like to see few hands on the next street, but in order to get highest EV I should probably call. Am I right?
  • 7 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      Is your 3bet preflop for Value or as a Bluff? If deciding any of these 2, why do you think it is ?
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      I'm definately 3betting for value here, if I wouldn't I would just call, I don't see any point in 3bet/fold with card like JJ, because it is too strong. Also he has 70% ft3bet so I'm still keeping his worse range in play.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by Aimboy
      I'm definately 3betting for value here, if I wouldn't I would just call
      Ok so you are 3betting lineair which can be very exploitable


      I don't see any point in 3bet/fold with card like JJ, because it is too strong.
      AQs is also considered strong, would you 3bet/jam with it as well?
      What do you think villain is 4betting you? Therefore equity/pot odds?


      Also he has 70% ft3bet so I'm still keeping his worse range in play.
      That's a general ''averaged'' stat based on all positions, sample size would help but I think you are not understanding statistics well or at least scratching the surface



      What range will Fold, Call your 3bet and what range will 4bet against you?
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Originally posted by Aimboy
      I'm definately 3betting for value here, if I wouldn't I would just call
      Ok so you are 3betting lineair which can be very exploitable
      I'm also 3betting as a bluff, but with different hand range. I don't think my 3bets are exploitable.


      I don't see any point in 3bet/fold with card like JJ, because it is too strong.
      AQs is also considered strong, would you 3bet/jam with it as well?
      What do you think villain is 4betting you? Therefore equity/pot odds?
      Probably TT+, AK. To call I need 40% equity, I have 43% against this range. With AQs I have only 34%, so it's not that strong :) I'm probably calling with AQs here or eventually bet/folding, but I would rather call.

      Also he has 70% ft3bet so I'm still keeping his worse range in play.
      That's a general ''averaged'' stat based on all positions, sample size would help but I think you are not understanding statistics well or at least scratching the surface

      Ok, he is raising 12%, 70% folding, so it means he still plays with 4% of his range, so it's something like that:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 51,402% 50,258% 2,289% 47,453% 99+, AQs+, AKo
      Player 2: 48,598% 47,453% 2,289% 50,258% JJ


      What range will Fold, Call your 3bet and what range will 4bet against you?
      It is hard to say, if he is 4betting here with KK+, but let's say he is not trapping, he will probably 4bet with QQ+ AK, and he would call with 99-JJ, AQs, he will fold rest of his hands. That's how I see it.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Again you are taking the 70% for granted and leaving logic behind.

      Anyways I quote this from you:
      It is hard to say, if he is 4betting here with KK+, but let's say he is not trapping, he will probably 4bet with QQ+ AK, and he would call with 99-JJ, AQs, he will fold rest of his hands. That's how I see it.
      So having you said that you theoretically :
      1) Have to fold on his 4bet (QQ+,AK) due pot odds
      2) Against 99-JJ,AQ - it is pretty hard to get extra value besides this 8bb 3bet because 99-TT will fold common sensely like what happened in your sample hand. If you see a Q-A board, you are reluctant to put your stack in.
      3) You fold all the hands you have crushed
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Are you suggesting I shouldn't 3bet preflop? I think that would be very problematic hand to play on flop with overcards, how would I play on flop like this one, without overcards (raise F, call F? Tbh I would probably call)? Can you tell me your line in this spot?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      I think it ain't that difficult playing JJ IP. People in general think their hand is trash when an overcard is on the Flop but if you can handread well you know for sure if you are beat or simply have the best hand

      I see MSS more as BSS because you simply cant solve it preflop+flop as a SS player. If you tend to disagree I kindly ask you then to post on the german/other forums

      On this kind of board in both 2bet/3bet pots, I just flat

      Best regards,
      Gerv