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[NL20-NL50] [50]FR A3s pair+fd oop

    • mrxLT
      Joined: 02.09.2008 Posts: 435
      $0.50 NL Holdem - 9 players

      SB: $50.00
      BB: $86.45
      UTG: $39.15
      UTG+1: $38.50
      Hero (MP): $55.85
      MP+1: $54.00-----8/5 (120 hands)
      LP: $51.55
      CO: $20.00
      BTN: $36.00

      SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has A:club: 3:club:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, MP+1 calls $2.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($4.75, 2 players) 6:club: 3:diamond: 7:club:
      Hero bets $3.50, MP+1 raises to $10.50, Hero calls $7.00

      Turn: ($25.75, 2 players) A:spade:
      Hero bets $12.00, MP+1 raises to $41.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $29.50

      River: ($108.75, 2 players) 6:spade:

      I might fold this hand pre. Blinds are thight regs, co seems like ssser and btn seems like fish.
      Easy cbet on this flop, but when villain raises it sucks. At first i was thinking pair+nutfd, bet-3bet-get it in!!! But do i have ant fold equity? What does he raising on this flop? Against sets i have 29%, against 76s - 47.5%, maybe sometimes he has JJ-KK, against those im flipping. Dominated flush draw? Against KcQc, QcJc, JcTc im good, but how often does he has those and if he has, does he raise flop? Tc9c and 9c8c he probably raising but he has decent aquity also.
      So maybe its the best to just bet/call flop, cf blank turn and donk whaen i hit? Toughts?
  • 2 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Given how tight this guy plays over the sample you show it's very unlikely for him to have connectors of any kinds (78, KQ, etc).

      I also don't see many of his type fast playing too many overpairs but let's say he does raise JJ-KK and sets then your equity is ~44.6%. So in the best case scenario we are still a slight dog/flipping.

      Theoretically, against this type of player, you do have implied odds so if I wanted to continue the hand I'd just call.

      As far as the turn play goes I'm assuming you are trying some sort of blocker bet? Calling $30 to win roughly $105 requires you to still have about 30% equity and with your 9 outs you have ~18% at best.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      120 hands is not that big sample that you can only give him sets if he is c/r that flop.
      I think that he might also be bluffing there smt like 44 or raise for value overpair, so you should always have there some fold equity if you 3-bet flop.
      Once you b/c I like c/rai to let him barrel his bluffs and flushdraws