Swingy swingy(updated)

    • Yoshimitsu77
      Yoshimitsu77
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2010 Posts: 337
      Grinding $2.25 turbo SnG's.
      Are these swings standard over my sample size?
      The downswings are always slow and make me not want to play, and the upswings are short and sharp.



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  • 3 replies
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Are these 9-player or 18-player SNGs? If 9-player, then those swings are unusually large, but not shockingly so. This is why you need a substantial bankroll. Even players with a solid win rate over tens of thousands of tournaments will periodically drop 40 buy-ins.

      You should not try to adjust your play to a low-variance style. That doesn't exist. Many people think they are avoiding variance when they are actually just delaying it. If you decide not to call all-in with 2000 chips, this does not mean you get to finish the tournament with 2000 chips (except in a Fifty50 SNG).

      You might want to pay attention to your downswings for two reasons. One is that they can indicate that your win rate is not as high as you would like it to be. If your win rate is lower, you will see larger downswings and longer break-even stretches. In addition, downswings may indicate that you tend to tilt and play worse when you start losing. If you identify tilt as a problem, then you should take steps to fix it, such as taking a break when you identify warning signs.
    • Yoshimitsu77
      Yoshimitsu77
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2010 Posts: 337
      these are 9 man SnG's.
      I honestly don't think the swings are from tilt. I can remember the 2 biggest swings, the upswings felt like I can shove any hand and win (i didnt do this) running super hot with loads of cards.
      Then the downswing I just lost every hand I played and my roll was running away.
      Hopefully it's just sicko varience.
      I will post another graph once ive done 2k games to re-evaluate.

      cheers pzhon
    • Yoshimitsu77
      Yoshimitsu77
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.09.2010 Posts: 337
      Ive now done 2.3k games and the swings have continued.
      I have been making $$ from rakeback so my bankroll still goes up and I started adding a few $6.50 turbos seeing as my roll is big enough and the games are not much tougher.
      The vertical spike was from a $26 matrix that I destroyed from a Step 1 ticket i got from FTPA points.

      One possible weakness in my game could be heads up play, my first places are really bad, but the sample is super small.
      1st-6.7% 2nd-19% 3rd-17.2% (300 game sample)




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