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[NL2-NL10] NL2 - Set of Queens vs ???

    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Known players:

      0.01/0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant 0.90 by

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K:club: , Q:club:
      2 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, BU calls $0.02, SB folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.07) A:spade: , Q:heart: , Q:spade: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.08, MP2 calls $0.08, BU folds.

      Turn: ($0.23) 6:spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.17, MP2 calls $0.17.

      River: ($0.57) 8:diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.34, MP2 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.57

      Pre Flop I'm big blind so after considering raising with what I think is a pretty decent hand I decide to check. I don't mind playing KQs in a multi-way pot.

      On the flop I hit my set, but note that its very draw heavy. In a three-way pot there is could to be someone who has a flush draw. With this in mind I bet the pot size hoping to induce a fold from a drawing hand (maybe the bet size was always going to be low here due to the implied odds).

      On the turn another spade comes out, this completes any potential flush draw. However, I'm not convinced Villan has a flush, so bet 2/3'ds of the pot size and get a call. This suggests to me that Villan either has a nut flush and doesn't want to scare me off, or some other far weaker cards, either the draw or a pair of some kind.

      If Villan had re-raised on the turn I probably would have had to fold my hand - Correct play?

      On the river I bet again, the card was a blank, so I put myself ahead of his likely range (unless he was slow-playing the flush). Opponent folds.

      Correct to bet on the river? Would I only get called by opponents with the flush? A check could have induced a bluff bet, but this is micro's?
  • 3 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030

      Little side note - set is a combo when you hold pocket pair in your hands and hit third card on the board and three of a kind is other cases, like this.

      About the hand.
      I think we can raise this preflop, KQs should play fine in this spot and they can call with worse. Ofc checking is not a mistake, but I see losing some value that way.

      Postflop is fine, we can still bet turn and river against Ax. Making it a bit less on a river is fine to give him great odds for a call. If he raises turn - folding seems like best option, yes. And it's hard to say if we could induce some bluff here by checking river, he may just valuebet his flushes and check back anything else, so I'll better b/f myself.

      Good luck!
    • Philfox1985
      Joined: 18.12.2010 Posts: 934
      Thanks, point noted on the terminology I will try to get it right next time.

      Another quick question, if he min-raises on the turn are we ok to call? I calculate there are 10 outs to make a full-house and he would probably be willing to stack off, or at least bet more on the river with a flush (therefore making decent implied odds?)
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      If he minraises we need at least 0.17/(0.23+0.68) = 0.19 = 19% equity

      So, our clear outs to FH/quads: Q, three 6, three K. Possibly Aces are outs aswell, because I doubt he'd raise turn with Ax, so you're right - we have 10 outs and that's roughly 20% of equity, so we're getting correct odds, but there's still a few problems about it - we're OOP, so extracting more value on can fail, double paired board may easily scare him off, so best case would be if Kx hits. So yea, we can call a minraise and see river, but we won't get paid off too often I assume. Altho if we add slight chance he's bluffing or semi-bluffing, calling makes even more sense, but that's already villain dependent.