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[NL2-NL10] NL25 MSS AKo fold preflop?

    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($26.29)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($42.20)
      UTG+1 ($29.83)
      UTG+2 ($24.65)
      Hero ($10)
      MP2 ($25)
      CO ($10.93)
      BTN ($24.15)

      Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:club:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $2.75, fold

      BB wins $2.10

      BB plays 15/4/1 over 350 hands

      sick spot imo.
      we have only 40% EQ vs QQ+, AK and we need ~45% cause I see hardly FEQ.
      Adding more pairs doesnt make it better we only can get some FEQ.

      Good fold?

      T.
  • 5 replies
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      dont forget than more than a 3 bet it is a resteal, so he can be restealing a bit loser, I think folding AKo in this spots very under played, you have position and he only 3bet you 2.5x, So a call is the least you can do :D .
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by thazar
      dont forget than more than a 3 bet it is a resteal, so he can be restealing a bit loser, I think folding AKo in this spots very under played, you have position and he only 3bet you 2.5x, So a call is the least you can do :D .
      Hi,

      Moderator? :f_biggrin:

      Well it is MP1 vs BB so what range do you think he is gonna resteal?
      His PFR is only 4% so I doubt he is 3betting OOP near 4%.

      T.
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,561
      lol, I must have been tired to see you in CO :f_biggrin:

      but anyway it is a <3x raise OOP so with AKo I'd definitely call and play cautiously post.
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Hi,

      lol

      I think his range is QQ+, AK 90% of the time.

      Well folding seems nitty but if we call IP. How do we proceed?
      - A or K high flop; doubt if this nit cbets 2nd pair with JJ-QQ(-KK). If he does we get 1 street of value.
      if he bets he prolly has TP/OP/trips
      - Other flops; call/float or raise AI if we have additional outs OESD/FD?
      ie calling behind vs OP or getting him off AK on the turn

      So postflop will be folding a lot and I think his range isnt exploitable postflop...

      T
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 66.754% 60.59% 06.88% 7228291 820669.50 { QQ+, AKs }
      Hand 1: 33.246% 26.72% 06.88% 3188156 820684.50 { AhKc }


      I dont call pre because AQ/AJ/KQ is not in his range and reluctancy of stacking off with his TT-QQ due Ahi/Khi boards
      + you miss 66% and can't float due his strong range

      So I would muck it

      Best regards,
      Gerv