[NL2-NL10] NL10 AQs FD on paired board

    • Oly0909
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 843
      Known players:

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Elephant.Base 0.96 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:heart: , Q:heart:
      UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $0,40, 2 folds, CO calls $0,40, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0,95) J:heart: , 5:heart: , 5:club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0,65, CO raises to $1,50, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2,25

      1. Since it's paired board I decided to fold here. Is it OK?
      2. What should I do if it's not paired board?
  • 3 replies
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030

      How often does he raises cbets?

      Usually I'd say we can fold as we're OOP and he's nit, but... I think I'd call there, because with his raise he's repping so narrow range as I usually expect him to 3bet QQ+ and I doubt he would raise JJ/55 like this as usually they tend to slowplay it on such a board plus he should have idea that you will fold most of your weak hands against his raise if he has nuts/close to it, so I think he's bluffing more often than not and I'd call and assume we could be good even with Q or A on board unless he goes crazy or something.

      Good luck!
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Oly0909,

      1. Since it's paired board I decided to fold here. Is it OK?

      I'd even do the CBet a bit smaller ~$0,55 should do it. But as played when we get raised just fold it, to avoid further mistakes, of course we have fantastic implied odds and also our equity against him is pretty decent. But for the given reason that sometimes we also have to discounts few outs I wouldn't be so sure. Also if we take a look at his WTS that indicates he is going to showdown not that often, more often with made hand, and he will often raising with pretty strong hand, at least made ones, unless we have some other reads.

      For example we had some reads on him that his Raise CBet is kinda bigger then we also could consider Calling there but without any good reason I'd rather just give it up to avoid further mistakes. :) Also We will be OOP. :( That's even worse.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 42,347% 42,253% 0,186% 57,560% AhQh
      Player 2: 57,653% 57,560% 0,186% 42,253% QQ+, AJs, A5s, KJs, AJo, A5o, KJo

      2. What should I do if it's not paired board?

      We could take the implied odds and Call and reevaluate further street but I wouldn't get crazy with my TP on further streets if I do hit rather hoping for flush.

      Best regards.
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      Fold is pretty much better for sure if we're in doubt he's going to bluff, but what I've noticed is some regs just want to make some moves time to time as, you know, that's what all 'cool' players do and they choose some flops which seems we could have missed, but they just forget to think about range what they are repping by that raise. I really doubt 14/11 would slowplay QQ+ preflop, of course we can't really say never ever, but I'd say that's unlikely just because that's not how nits deal with it, so with his raise on flop I tend to say he has some piece of a board, but I think we should be ahead. In this particular case the fact we're OOP just pretty much sucks, so we could fold just avoid ugly turn spots, but if I'd be IP I'd call most of the time. Ofc particular reads how he players his monsters/draws/etc. helps to understand how often he's raising flop and with what kind of hand he has and whether he's capable of turning hands like AJ/KJ into a bluff.