4/8 Live - Beatable?

    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Hey everyone,

      Everywhere you look on the net people seem to think that Live Fixed Limit is unbeatable due to the rake. Last night I decided to give live play a try. I have been playing NL2 online but I am afraid to play that game in the Casinos as I need to save money right now and am afraid to lose a stack. I left the casino up $59.50 using what I remembered of Limit strategy (despite my nervousness causing me to play dumb a few times).

      Here are my observations:

      -I believe the girl said the rake was 5% up to $5. They also take a $1 on occasion for a Bad Beat jackpot. (I can't remember the stipulation for taking the $1, maybe a large pot?)

      -The NL games at the other casino downtown are full of young players, which scares me. Most of the FL people at this Casino are older and don't play seriously (they play poorly).

      -There is little raising on each street. You can raise up to 5x per street but only once - on a Kill Pot - Did I see the Bet ever reach $24 (3x), and I think the opponent folded. Otherwise the bet never went higher than 2x per street.

      -I was on a good run of cards and people were starting to adapt to my raises by folding after limping, which is really foolish. With my AA I had two opponents Post Flop I think (hard to see around the dealer, and not perfectly attentive due to first time jitters). Since they appear to respect my raises I should be able to "protect my good hands" with just a raise pre-flop. The table is really lose and the one lady there would win with great hands like a Set or Straight and not raise to get any value out of those hands. The quality of play is very poor (Like $0.02/$0.04 on Pokerstars).

      Do you guys/gals think this game is beatable, and what kind of win-rate could one expect if one was really good? How much could one tip per hour or per large win and still show a profit?

      Thanks
  • 8 replies
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      play nl live. ppl r so bad (probally worse than nl2). I honestly think a 30-40b/100 wr is possible.
    • MathhNes
      MathhNes
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.08.2009 Posts: 953
      Originally posted by i5bet72o
      play nl live. ppl r so bad (probally worse than nl2). I honestly think a 30-40b/100 wr is possible.
      100% agree

      The only problem is the 20hands/hr ratio live. Online i get like 4-500 hands / hr so 20x more hands = less winrate needed, less short term variance.

      So to compensate i just play much higher with a 15 BI BRM or so.
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      no need to assume that the young people at the NL tables are good. every young person i've seen at 200nl live has been pretty bad (lol sample size tho)
    • i5bet72o
      i5bet72o
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,615
      Originally posted by MathhNes
      Originally posted by i5bet72o
      play nl live. ppl r so bad (probally worse than nl2). I honestly think a 30-40b/100 wr is possible.
      100% agree

      The only problem is the 20hands/hr ratio live. Online i get like 4-500 hands / hr so 20x more hands = less winrate needed, less short term variance.

      So to compensate i just play much higher with a 15 BI BRM or so.
      try to go to a casino with automatic shufflers.
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      the fact that people are so bad lowers the variance a bit so i think 15BI is fine, people just sit there slowplaying the nuts at each other and bet tiny anyway so you hardly ever get stacked.

      Here's a hand from last time I went (one of the best tables i've been at)

      I had T9 and raised it up after heaps of limpers, got 2 callers
      Flop 678 with 2 hearts, I bet about 2/3 pot and everyone folds so I showed my straight. Guy next to me looks shocked and goes "why would you BET that?" like I was an idiot.

      I think the low hands/hour and the fact that you have to leave the house keeps out a lot of internet (good) players.
    • Dawnfall26
      Dawnfall26
      Black
      Joined: 30.07.2008 Posts: 3,116
      Hi!

      I have played some FL 8/16 in vegas and people are so terribly bad. 5 people/flop is pretty much an average despite preflop action. Also people calling you down with 2 pair is not an exception as well.

      I would say these limits are beatable pretty much the same as online microstakes.
    • Navrark
      Navrark
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 313
      Thanks for the replies.

      I still am really nervous about NL live though. I played before when I lived in a different city and there was an aggressive player who I found difficult to deal with. They are much more intimidating in person compared to the donks they appear to be online.

      One thing I found about FL was how easy it can be to count the pot size playing live. In NL it is very difficult.

      Are you guys able to count the pot size exactly? Or do you just estimate? Obviously the dealer just piles the chips together for speed so there is no real way to count unless you just gain that ability with experience.

      I know NL is the way to go but still can anyone tell me if I should be able to beat the rake at this live 4/8 game?

      Thx
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Yes, you should be able to beat the rake/tips in almost any low stakes live LHE game. The soft play should give you a better win rate than you get in online games with a proportionally smaller rake. However, even when the games are soft, your hourly rate tends to be low because there are so few hands/hour. An expert might win 6 big bets/100, but only get 25 hands/hour for a win rate of 1.5 big bets/hour, or $12/hour in that $4-$8 game. Many players are surprised to hear that after a good day where they win a few big pots and make 30 big bets in a few hours, but outplaying your opponents while winning does not mean that win rate is sustainable.