Last 1300 STT-s, 74 BI below ev

    • Luupainaja
      Luupainaja
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2010 Posts: 1,148
      I've recently posted some graphs about my records running below ev. Seems that i was far off. I looked my overall winnings in HM and here's the graph for last 1364 games. They're all 12$ STT-s at FTP. Its 74 BI below ev.

      It makes me wonder that maybe i make some bad mistakes that ev line doesnt cover. Is that possible? Any thoughts about this?

  • 6 replies
    • MiddleMan
      MiddleMan
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      Joined: 20.03.2008 Posts: 99
      Hmmmm... thats just sick.... I am running ~40 BI under EV adjusted, but this is sick...
      Just a sick downswing i guess...
      Damn.... looking at that makes me want to puke... Life of sng grinder :s_frown:
    • Luupainaja
      Luupainaja
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2010 Posts: 1,148
      Yeah, its sick. Actually i didn't realize until now how badly i really run. But it's good for the mindset not to realize this i guess. The good news is that if i can cope with this i can be confident that i've a healthy poker mindset.

      My main question right now is, is it possible that i make some bad mistakes that ev line doesnt cover?
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
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      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      the EV line isnt all-inclusive of all luck factors. but just because you are running under ev doesnt mean you are making mistakes. it sucks, but it happens, you will come out of it, then it will happen again. pretty much every high stakes reg i know has had 100+ BI downers. No one can tell you if your game is good or bad just by looking at your ev graph. and you need a much larger sample to get an approximation of your long term real roi on the limit.
    • variancekiller
      variancekiller
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      Joined: 20.09.2010 Posts: 896
      I have been told in a cardrunners video that 500 games will give you a fair enough look at your overall %ROI.

      I suppose that's just a donk saying it than ;)
    • lessthanthreee
      lessthanthreee
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      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 16,300
      Originally posted by yvonnejansen
      I suppose that's just a donk saying it than ;)
      this
    • alberts1955
      alberts1955
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      Joined: 13.04.2010 Posts: 251
      u need like 5k games to see ur true lifetime ROI% on limit, or even more than 5k
      big downer u got there luupainaja :/