Does this mean i am luckbox?

    • rankler88
      rankler88
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      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 43


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      I have recently purchased HEM and am currently grinding the $1.20 9man games.

      This is my graph for my current limit and i am wondering if it is usual to be running so high above the red line?

      Also if i am running good will this mean that i will be in line for a downswing so that i run at closer to the red line?

      Any feedback would be good thanks.
  • 12 replies
    • h0m1e
      h0m1e
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      Joined: 28.03.2010 Posts: 223
      yep,huge luckbox
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Don't worry about EV line. If you flop a set, end up all-in with some idiot who called your shove with 83s flush draw, and your set holds up a few times - are you a luckbox? No, but looking just at EV line you might think so :)
    • Leito99
      Leito99
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      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      yes you are lucky but also you are probably beating the limit anyway

      a downswing is likelier but since you're winning at this level it will probably be a breakeven strech or something

      if i was you i would move up
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Don't worry about EV line. If you flop a set, end up all-in with some idiot who called your shove with 83s flush draw, and your set holds up a few times - are you a luckbox? No, but looking just at EV line you might think so :)
      your misunderstanding the ev line yes?

      ---

      looks like you have >5% luck adjusted roi so your game game might need some fixing and plugging some leaks..

      5% roi isn't bad at all tho.. and congratz on the good run..

      and no your not a luckbox although you run like a luckbox atm.. =)
    • rankler88
      rankler88
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      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 43
      My bankroll is currently at $110.00 the next level up is $3.40 i would only have 33 buyins. I do feel that i am beating this limit but i am going to wait till i have 50 buyins before i jump up.

      I was really shocked when i purchased HEM and seen my graph as i dont feel that i suckout.But i suppose i only remember the bad beats. :f_p:

      Hopefully i will coninue to run good ;) through to the next level thanx 4 the input.

      P.s My roi is 12.5% and adjusted $ev:5.2% is this about right?
    • rankler88
      rankler88
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      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 43
      Thnx Hlynkinn yeah u were bang on with the roi im still studying and trying to find leaks. HEM is awesome.Trying to get to grips with it.It has allready highlighted a few issues with my game so onwards and upwards 4 me (fingers crossed) cheers for clearing up my queries guys!
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Originally posted by Hlynkinn
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Don't worry about EV line. If you flop a set, end up all-in with some idiot who called your shove with 83s flush draw, and your set holds up a few times - are you a luckbox? No, but looking just at EV line you might think so :)
      your misunderstanding the ev line yes?
      Please explain then...
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Originally posted by Hlynkinn
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Don't worry about EV line. If you flop a set, end up all-in with some idiot who called your shove with 83s flush draw, and your set holds up a few times - are you a luckbox? No, but looking just at EV line you might think so :)
      your misunderstanding the ev line yes?
      Please explain then...
      It only adjust the All in luck of your green line.. as in if you go all in on the river there is no all in luck to adjust.. so both lines go up.. if you win a hand without a showdown there is no all in luck involved so both lines go up...

      What it does adjust is the luck involved when you get all in.. Like if you push AA and get called by 22 and you loos.. then green line will go down and red line up..

      the red line is only to do those adjustments both on your all ins and the all ins of other players that collide affecting your tournament equity.

      EV line doesn't adjust based on edges or something like that and isn't supposed to...

      and yeah if your sets always hold up your a luckbox.. you gotta lose those 5 percent 5 percent of the time :)
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Well yes, I know what is EV and how it is calculated :)
      But I mean, do you say that EV line directly reflects your luck? If yes, then I completely disagree. You can get a bunch of sick coolers and EV line will only show that you're OK. You can shove your remaining 20% of starting stack on the turn, be outdrawn by 1-outer, and your EV line will show that you're a little bit unlucky here. Bad beats (or suckouts in your favor) don't reflect your good or bad luck at all, it's impossible to calculate and tell if you're a luckbox or a victim.
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Well yes, I know what is EV and how it is calculated :)
      But I mean, do you say that EV line directly reflects your luck? If yes, then I completely disagree. You can get a bunch of sick coolers and EV line will only show that you're OK. You can shove your remaining 20% of starting stack on the turn, be outdrawn by 1-outer, and your EV line will show that you're a little bit unlucky here. Bad beats (or suckouts in your favor) don't reflect your good or bad luck at all, it's impossible to calculate and tell if you're a luckbox or a victim.
      the all in luck adjuster is said to adjust up to 50% of the luck in turbo sng's... So there still is luck involved but the red line gives you a way better image of your skill level than the green line.. Although of course there is still a bunch of luck involved in the red line..
    • rankler88
      rankler88
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      Joined: 02.09.2010 Posts: 43
      Originally posted by Hlynkinn
      So there still is luck involved but the red line gives you a way better image of your skill level than the green line
      Gutted about seeing this i was thinking i was a poker god for a few weeks :f_biggrin: oh well back to earth i come!! (i will switch the red line off though when i show my clueless mates how im crushing my level :s_biggrin: :s_biggrin: )

      Can you tell me where i can find out some solid information about the ev line etc etc and also is there any basic way of utilising HEM so i can find leaks??( or am i being thick :) )

      thnx guys
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      You can search around the forums there has been some discussions going on about the EV line.. And google is your friend :)

      I don't think you'll ever get a big enough sample size while at the micros to really review your stats in hem with the intension of finding and fixing leaks. Your time will be way more efficiently spent watching videos and posting in the hand evaluations forum.

      You can still be pretty proud of your results 5% luck adjusted roi over 500 games gives you a nice statistical proof that your at least beating the $2's