[NL2-NL10] Nl 10 QQ on dangerous board

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)      
      Position:
      Stack
      MP1:
      $6.77
      Hero:
      $10.57

      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.8 by www.pokerstrategy.cc.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q:spade: , Q:club:
      UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $0.20, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.35) 9:spade: , T:diamond: , 6:spade: (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $1, MP1 calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.35) Q:heart: (2 players)
      MP1 checks, Hero bets $2.50, MP1 calls $2.50.

      River: ($8.35) 8:heart: (2 players)
      MP1 bets $2.67 (All-In), Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $11.02

      Great. What can I beat now:( Maybe 3$ bet on the turn, but since he had left 5$ then I wanted to put him all-in on the river and for that I needed that he call my turn bet. If there were one card that complete´s gutshot then I might call, but here any 7 or J beats me.
  • 10 replies
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      IMO every street was well played but the river.

      You're pot committed there, if he has you beat, there's nothing you can do, you protected your hand the whole way, even if you call here and you're beaten you do not justify him and your play is still +EV. So a call would be the right move IMO.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Am I pot committed?

      I have still problem calculating the pot odds:) With MP1 push the pot is now 11,02$ and I have to call 2,67$ to win 11,02$. So how to I calculate then:
      a) pot odds are 11,02:2,67= 4,13:1 or
      b) pot odds are (11,02+2,67):2,67=5,13:1

      On the first scenario I´m sure that I don´t win more that than 25%, so that makes then folding easy. Not sure on the second scenario- I´m quite (more than 80%) certain against that opponent I had beaten, so why do I have to call and find out:)
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      a) pot odds are 11,02:2,67= 4,13:1

      is the right calculation, and still i agree with Faye. A busted FD is within his range, so i think you have to call these odds.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      With the odds you're getting (4.13-to-1, as helemaalnicks confirmed), you only need to be ahead 19.5% of the time (you're probably miscalculating it here, it's not 25%).

      But it's very difficult to know the exact percentage of the time you'll be ahead (if not impossible), but in this case I think it's an easy call. You protected your hand all the way. If he got his card on the river, even if you call here, it doesn't justify him, he still played it wrong (unless he was holding 87, J8 or KJ, but given the action I think they are all very unlikely, except for K:spade: J:spade:) because of the way you played previous streets, and with these odds you just can't risk folding to a bluff, that's a huge mistake and it's gonna cost you a lot of money.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      @Faye Could you show me how do you get 19,5%:)
      My calculation: 1:4,13=24,2%=25%

      MP 1 min-raise pre-flop: I can´t him always put him pockerpair, but anyway I have to think out what hand he could push. He check/called flop and turn, so he wouldn´t have two pair or set, because the board s too dangerous to slowplay. Only way if 8 could helped him is if he hold 88 or he was drawing to flush or straight. If there would be only gutshot straight draw out there I would call, but since I believe that he wouldn´t push with flush draw and it is not very likely that he holds 89, T8, Q8 I like my fold more than call.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      you can't put someone on 1 hand. Only way if 8 could helped him is if he hold 88 or he was drawing to flush or straight, you have to call because he could've been drawing to a spade flush, and you are ONLY beat by a j or an 7. If he holds a 9 or a j 80% of the time, and I think that is unrealistic. If you come across this situation 5 times, and he has a j or 7 5 times, then your fold is good here, therefor you have to call, because that is simply not realistic. Especially the 7...

      with the j or the 7 he was drawing for a gutshot. That makes this fold even worse, i think he doesn't have a jack or 7 more then 50 % of the time, which makes this a terrible fold.

      If there would be only gutshot straight draw out there


      lol, if this card helped him to a straight, it is a gutshot straight draw, or an open ended straight draw.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      @Faye Could you show me how do you get 19,5%smile
      My calculation: 1:4,13=24,2%=25%


      you made the wrong calculation:

      1:4.13, lets say you win 24.2% of the time. 1000 samples.

      242 * 413 = 99946
      758 * -100 =-75800

      This is because pot odds 1:4.13 means, that you have to win 1/5.13 to break even. 1/5.13 * 100 = 19.49% you have to win to break even. I think you win here once every 5 times at least, so...
    • mchaggis
      mchaggis
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.09.2006 Posts: 157
      1:4 = 1 to 4 so 1 of 5 = 1/5 = 20%
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      Originally posted by mchaggis
      1:4 = 1 to 4 so 1 of 5 = 1/5 = 20%
      no, 1:5 = 1/6 = 16.66%

      sample of 6, where you win 1, in a 1:5 pot odds battle:

      l = -1
      l = -1
      w = +5
      l = -1
      l = -1
      l = -1

      together, exactly break even, so for 1:5 pot odds, you have to win 1/6, and for 1:4 pot odds, you have to win 1/5.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      You are getting 11,02:2,67= 4,13:1 on the river. Thus, if you win 1 of (4,13+1) times, you are break even.

      The hand is nice played, but you have to call the river.