[NL20-NL50] NL 25 AA deep river call?

    • MatejM47
      MatejM47
      Black
      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,193
      Poker Stars $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players - View hand 1152401
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $25.00
      CO: $65.38
      BTN: $25.37
      Hero (SB): $46.67
      BB: $27.83

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with A :diamond: A :club:
      1 fold, CO raises to $1.01, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.38, 1 fold, CO calls $2.37

      Flop: ($7.01) 4 :diamond: 5 :heart: 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.83, CO calls $4.83

      Turn: ($16.67) 5 :club: (2 players)
      Hero bets $11.27, CO calls $11.27

      River: ($39.21) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $22.52, Hero calls $22.52

      Well i think flop and turn is as standard as it gets, but then probably the worse card in the deck hits the river. The problem is that his range on the river is pretty much TT-QQ that calls twice here that deep and his pretty much a standard reg that plays more or less strait forward and i doubt his capable of turning something like TT or JJ here into a bluff and is more then happy to check back. So im expecting to see QQ here more often then not.

      But then again if im folding AA here im pretty much folding my whole range and given the overlay it would be a disaster to fold the best hand here. I was pretty much planning to fold if he would of shipped but then he bets 1/2 pot i don't think i can fold.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
      I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
      As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
      I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
      As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river

      I don't think Villain could have those hands with 4x or 5x either.
      It depends on a players "3-bet calling range".
      I think that he should always call a 3bet preflop with 44 and 55, as we are deep.
      Then other 4x and 5x hands would be 65s, 54s, 43s, A4s, A5s, which, I think, people doesn't call too often even if they are deep.

      If thats true, then we have 2 combos (total) of 44 and 55, QQ=6 combos, KK=6 combos on the turn.
      (44 and 55)/(44 and 55 and QQ and KK)=2/(2+6+6)=14%, that he has quads.

      If we add only Axs
      A4s and A5s = 4 combos total
      Then (4+2)/(4+2+2+6+6)=30% of quads and boats.

      If we also add 65s, 54s, 43s, then:
      65s=2 combos, 54s=1 combo, 43s=2 combos.
      Let's put it in our equation:
      (2+1+2+4+2)/(2+1+2+4+2+2+6+6)=47% of hands that crash us.

      (KK or QQ can also catch some outs, thats why on PokerStove you will see a little bit different result.)

      So, I mean, we probably should at least call T, if we bet. (?)


      I like the line, that we should check to iduce bluffs or allow weaker hands to bet for value.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Since you are both deep and your 3-bet size was not that large (Side Note: I'd prefer a larger 3-bet OOP this deep to something like 4-4.5x) he can have any PP in his preflop range.

      Why do you give him only TT-QQ to get to the river with? Surely 99 is not much different than TT on that board vs a normal 3-bet range so I think most villains will call at least 2 streets with ALL pps above 66.

      So his range on the river could be something like:

      66-JJ = 36 combos
      KK = 6 combos but lets say he only calls half of them pre and half he 4bets, so 3

      QQ, 44, 55 = 5 combos

      So it's about ~39 combos we beat and 5 that we lose to. Even if you include some suited aces with a 4-5 in there or some connectors it wont get larger than perhaps 25-30% of his entire range.

      Furthermore if you believe this player to be rather straightforward and not turn pairs into a bluff on the river I think we should value bet small and fold to a raise (as per your read). I think if you check and you don't include many flush draws in his range it would be very close to a check/fold in my book.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Anger86
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      I personally don´t like betting turn, since your 3b range really isn´t 5x hands you can´t really do much if he decides to bluff on the turn unless you decide to b/c turn with aces.
      I would c/c turn and c/c river to try pot small and let him try to bluff with worse hands
      As played: I think c/c is fine, he sometimes have there flushdraws that have to bet to win on the river

      I don't think Villain could have those hands with 4x or 5x either.
      It depends on a players "3-bet calling range".
      I think that he should always call a 3bet preflop with 44 and 55, as we are deep.
      Then other 4x and 5x hands would be 65s, 54s, 43s, A4s, A5s, which, I think, people doesn't call too often even if they are deep.

      If thats true, then we have 2 combos (total) of 44 and 55, QQ=6 combos, KK=6 combos on the turn.
      (44 and 55)/(44 and 55 and QQ and KK)=2/(2+6+6)=14%, that he has quads.

      If we add only Axs
      A4s and A5s = 4 combos total
      Then (4+2)/(4+2+2+6+6)=30% of quads and boats.

      If we also add 65s, 54s, 43s, then:
      65s=2 combos, 54s=1 combo, 43s=2 combos.
      Let's put it in our equation:
      (2+1+2+4+2)/(2+1+2+4+2+2+6+6)=47% of hands that crash us.

      (KK or QQ can also catch some outs, thats why on PokerStove you will see a little bit different result.)

      So, I mean, we probably should at least call T, if we bet. (?)


      I like the line, that we should check to iduce bluffs or allow weaker hands to bet for value.
      To b/c turn we have to assume he is turning his floats and middle pairs into bluffs and raise turn with worse hands than boats. Most likely I think it should go call even with boat, since raise seems too strong and you may fold your overpair. We´re not very often beat on the river, but problem is also that he doesn´t really valuebet smt like TT, so his line are either boat, sometimes KK or float/missed draws. With aces we can likely c/c, weaker hands you may consider c/f