For the sake of argument - Moving UP to recoup losses

    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
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      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      I'm not saying that one should recoup losses by moving up in stakes. But something I learned from my father in law got me thinking...

      He was telling me about a system that can beat roulette long term. Supposedly (and I hope I haven't misunderstood it)...

      1) You play a colour, that's it.
      2) You lay $1 on, say, red
      3) If you hit, you pocket the profit, go back to step 2
      4) If you miss, you double and lay $2 on the same colour (red)
      5) If you hit, you pocket the profit, go back to step 2
      6) If you miss, you double and lay $4 on the same colour etc etc

      Apparently, if a casino sniffs this out you will get booted. And I've been told online casinos sniff this out too.

      So... In relation to the accepted theory that moving up in stakes to recoup losses is a bad idea, this way of beating roulette REQUIRES you to move up after a loss in order to make a profit long term. In a way, it seems like a counterexample to the accepted poker wisdom of moving DOWN when you lose.

      If we were to use roulette as an example of moving DOWN to recoup a loss, everytime you lose the $1 on step 2, you are trying to recoup it by playing 50 cents the next time. That makes no sense because you would have to hit twice in a row to make a profit, whereas by moving UP you only need to hit once no matter how much you've lost previous.

      Now, obviously there are other factors to consider...

      1) They are different types of games.
      2) In poker, skills plays a factor.

      But in poker, variance (luck) is the one constant, just like roulette.

      Again, I obviously don't advocate moving up to recoup a loss to a bad beat, but theoretically it does make some sense. Especially if your losses are because of bad beats and not a lack of skill.

      I just thought this was interesting to think about.
  • 47 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
    • ExMagnusxL
      ExMagnusxL
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      Joined: 03.04.2010 Posts: 58
      Originally posted by hackbinder

      2) In poker, skills plays a factor.
      This is the big problem, in roulette every spin has the same probabilities so yes this method makes sense in that game. But not for poker because moving up in bets lowers your edge against the field lowering your probability of winning to, eventually, negative infinity.

      Originally posted by hackbinder

      But in poker, variance (luck) is the one constant, just like roulette.
      LOL!


      I know you are just theorizing but this doesn't make sense even in theory, the only logical argument that can be made is against this.
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
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      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,295
      Read the posted wiki article.

      Martingale is simply a way of manipulating variance so that you are /likely/ to win in the short term. Eventually you will hit a run of stone cold losses and go broke.

      You can't take a system full of -EV actions and make it +EV over the long run.

      It is true you could 'martingale' poker stakes. It is also true that this would mean you were likely to spin up in the short term. However, when you finally hit that 5+bi downswing, its going to hurt like hell.
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      martingale makes no sense in roulette to be honest.. and casinos love people stupid enough to think they can beat the game by playing martingale..

      and it makes no sense for poker either.. unless your bankroll is endless and you can move endlessly up the stakes...
    • EagleStar88
      EagleStar88
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      Joined: 06.10.2008 Posts: 7,359
      Hi hackbinder,

      The whole idea of BRM is to protect your remaining roll and build back up whilst minimalising risk. I would never advocate moving up chasing your losses, this is how small losses turn into big and even bigger losses. It's pure gambling.

      Re the roulette, yes that is a recognised system that I read about once. Whilst this isn't a roulette forum, I would just point out that the law of probability means you will often have losing runs (i.e. same colour) 20+ times in a row, a lot more sometimes. You do realise how much you would have to bet during these runs just to win $1 profit back?

      Spin 1 = -$1 (total -$1)
      Spin 2 = -$2 (total -$3)
      Spin 3 = -$4 (-$7)
      Spin 4 = -$8 (-$15)
      Spin 5 = -$16 (-$31)
      ........
      Spin 18 = -$131,072 (-$262,143)
      Spin 19 = -$262,144 (-$524,287)
      Spin 20 = -$524,288 (-$1,048,575)
      Need I go on? All to win just $1 :rolleyes:

      PokerStrategy's educational material can help give you the edge in poker, but no-one can help you on the roulette wheel imo.

      Best regards,


      Bart

      Edit: Wow, beaten by so many replies whilst writing that lol :D
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      PokerStrategy's educational material can help give you the edge in poker, but no-one can help you on the roulette wheel imo.


      It's a known fact that most roulette wheels are not 100% random... due to some weight on the wheel and other uncontrollable effects one can study a roulette table to find out it's favorable numbers..
      If you get enough free time to just observe a single roulette table for a year or two.. you can actually play roulette in a +ev way..
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      You do realise how much you would have to bet during these runs just to win $1 profit back?


      Martingale actually works if you have an endless bankroll..
      But casinos normally have a "max bet" just so that one dude with an endless bankroll can't win $1
    • Econom1sta
      Econom1sta
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      Joined: 27.01.2010 Posts: 130
      Well, I can say something about it. Thats what I do and trying to stop. Say I have $100 on my bankroll and I lose some of my money. Then I go up limits to recover what I lost, usually super turbo hu. Eventually I drop to $20 and play one $20 st hu. I win that one and keep playing 20$ sthu (2 tables simultaniously) until I get back to 100$ (sometimes even profit) and then continue playing my limits. I think I have recovered my bankroll like that about 5-6 times but the thing is if I haven't been doing it, there wouldn't be a reason to recover it :f_confused: . Went broke once. It's deffinitely not a thing to do, and it's very stressfull. I call it Reverse Banrkoll Managment. :f_p:
    • KingKarlito
      KingKarlito
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      Joined: 06.01.2011 Posts: 88
      When a roulette wheel is brand new it is perfectly balanced but as it wears with age the bearings will always favour a certain side of the wheel but this is very very slight, you would have to bet a massive number of times to take advantage of that!
      Playing games of chance like roulette are completely different to poker, each spin of the roulette wheel is completely independent of the last, so in no way changing the number/colour you bet on will have a difference, “IT’S RANDOM” for god’s sake!
      If you feel you can afford it within your poker bank roll why not try spinning it up, here you set aside say $5 (consider this $5 as gone at this point) play a $0.02/$0.05 cash table with the sole purpose of spinning it up to $10 as soon as you reach $10 get up and play a $0.05/$0.10 table, this time wait till you get to $25 and then play a $0.10/$0.25 cash table, and so on and so forth. This will not work all the time however it is good fun as you are playing solely to get your stack in the middle and double through similar to how you would play a sit n go only here you have a deep stack compared to the blinds. You will be 3 and 4 betting lightly and 5 betting all in with strong holdings.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Martingale is -EV. It would be zero EV if probability to win while betting on a color in roulette would be exactly 1/2, but unfortunately it is only 18/37. And casino is totally fine with that small edge as we all know ;)
    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
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      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      @Eaglestar

      I think you've misunderstood what I am saying.

      I am in no way saying that moving up is smart BRM.

      I am also not really talking about roulette. I'm using roulette to talk about a central idea in poker wisdom - BRM

      I am just playing devil's advocate because I thought it was an interesting idea to talk about in the forum. After all, the wisdom of BRM is only further enhanced through discussing counter examples in a, hopefully, intelligent way. It's a philosophical discussion about an unquestioned tenet of poker wisdom.

      Also, you are saying that its a lot of work for $1?

      Long term, it adds up. Just like the average Joe grinding 5/10 at 4 BB /100 hands!
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
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      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Anyone tried "who wants to be a millionare" style gambling games?

      It's a $2 max bet so no pros can really slam it but me and and few mates tried to make a bit one day. We got 3 guy trying to speed google hard and one guy clicking the buttons.

      It was pretty fun but i'm pretty sure unbeatable too
    • elhh82
      elhh82
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      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      assuming you have an unlimited bankroll and the casino will take unlimited bets, the Martingale system is the nuts, if you're willing to take huge risks to win a negligible amount.

      But then again, Infinity + 1 = Infinity, so you winnings will be so insignificant as compared to your bankroll.

      If you've got so much money, you'd probably have a fund manager that can earn you better profits for much less risk.
    • Hlynkinn
      Hlynkinn
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      Joined: 14.06.2008 Posts: 4,998
      playing martingale poker would be profitable if your bankroll were infinity.. and if there were endless amount of stakes up to NLinfinity
    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
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      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      It may very well be that the best practical application of all this to poker is to a variant of poker that is high variance, low skill...

      Super Turbo Single Table SNGs!

      These types of poker tourneys most closely match the conditions that make this roulette system work.

      Not to say these types of poker tourneys do not require skill, but the skill is all preflop, so the total amount of skill needed to be successful at it is less than regular poker games.
    • elhh82
      elhh82
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      Joined: 03.09.2008 Posts: 6,838
      Originally posted by hackbinder
      It may very well be that the best practical application of all this to poker is to a variant of poker that is high variance, low skill...

      Super Turbo Single Table SNGs!

      These types of poker tourneys most closely match the conditions that make this roulette system work.

      Not to say these types of poker tourneys do not require skill, but the skill is all preflop, so the total amount of skill needed to be successful at it is less than regular poker games.
      but this system doesn't even work for roulette.
    • hackbinder
      hackbinder
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      Joined: 15.05.2009 Posts: 618
      So does this mean I'm NOT going to win thread of the month?

      :f_p: :f_grin:
    • Termi8r
      Termi8r
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      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      I have found a fool prove method to win with roulette...

      ...




      ...





      ...





      ...






      ...







      ...






      ...






      ...




      STEP 1: Open a casino... :D
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Originally posted by hackbinder
      So does this mean I'm NOT going to win thread of the month?

      :f_p: :f_grin:
      What is the point of your topic anyway? You want to find a quick way to the top for a player with no skills or what? :f_biggrin: