Theoretical question on SSS.

    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      In a theoretical situation where :

      A player calls our preflop raise ( make it 6BB for easier count ), and the pots gets to our stack size ( ~13BB ), so we cbet allin ( 13-14BB ), first in.

      Lets suppose he calls, if he has a pair or better ( even a better draw ), and folds if he has none of these.

      I tried to figure out, but out of my math range i guess :D

      So he's risking 6 to gain 19-20, i know this is not true, because sometime we hold higher pocket, hit our higher card on the flop, etc etc.

      I would like to know if its +EV for him, or for us. Preflop call, is i know most cases -EV for him or range is like 70% favorite on a random hand.
      But on overall ...
      He's range should contain all pocket pairs ( as i suppose he calls the flop push with those ), plus well maybe could set up 2-3 ranges for the other hands.
  • 7 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Well, I am not an EV specialist, but from what I know It is almost imposible to calculate average EV in such situations... you have to make very general assumtions, while the real EV will depend on three variables:

      - your opponent
      - your equity
      - your fold equity...

      maybe something esle that I missed

      But obviously this move is +EV...

      If you want to calcualte EV, I think you have to do something like this:

      Pot: 13BB
      Stack: 13BB

      - assume he folds to our push 40% of the time -> we win 0.4*(13BB)= 5.2BB
      - assume we have on average 33% equity against his range, so if he calls in remaining 60% of the time we win 0.33*(26BB)= 8.58BB and loose 0.67*(13BB)= 8.71 BB. Our EV = 5.2BB + 0.6*(8.6BB - 8.7BB) ~ 5.2 BB

      I think its correct, but I am not totally sure. But you can have a picture at least...
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      I think you are kinda EV specialist :D
      I try to figure something out myself given your instructions.
      Fold equity for easier assumption is 0. He calls when he has something, and folds otherwise, like you calculated.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Why do you need this? I mean, you won`t be able to calculate anything usefull) Still, too many assumptions to make... even if you figure out how often he will catch the piece of the flop, you will still have to assume the average equity) and the last one is very abstract... So if you understand the general idea, than its ok...
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      Im just curious, as it seems to me they play this against me quite often. Generally i got the picture. Just i thought some1 smarter than me, can make 2-4 hand ranges against our hand ranges with this criterias. Seems like too complicated. For example a person with 15%VPIP playing against us with this strategy, or a 20%VPIP person, and like a 30%.
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      Originally posted by Utahmar
      Just i thought some1 smarter than me, can make 2-4 hand ranges against our hand ranges with this criterias. Seems like too complicated.
      Well, you can`t really calculate the average equity, because it will differ from flop to flop) The best you can do is to assume average flop (like Ace rag rainbow), but even though, your calculations won`t be much usefull)
      Its way more interesting to calcualte EV in particular hand, where you have information available and can make more or less accurate assumtions based on your opponent's statistics... This way you can try to figure out which postflop line has more EV in particular hand, for instance...
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      I thought, maybe we can do it like this: (i am not sure :) )

      Assumptions:

      - we raise from MP with a range 99+, AQs+, AQo+
      - player in BU will call with a range 22-99, AQs-ATs, KJs+, AQo-ATo, KJo+
      - blinds are raked

      - he folds in 60% of the time to our cbet
      - he calls the rest 40%
      - flop play is constant, meaning only 1 scenario -> we push - he calls (40%) or folds (60%)
      - our equity against his range 67% (the real one)

      Pot on flop: 13BB
      Stack: 13BB

      EV = 0.6*(13BB) + 0.4*(0.67*(26BB) - 0.33*(13BB))= 7.8 + 5.2 = 13BB
    • Utahmar
      Utahmar
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 2,414
      I thought something like this, yes, thanks.
      Its clearly +.
      Could you check my DB ? Im not unpatient, just didnt have other contact for you to ask.

      I did some analize, but only on today hands .
      I think my play from blinds are very bad. I lost a lot of money here.
      From 868 hands i played.
      When i filter to VPIP hands i earned +4.53$. ( Even tho I lost 4 allins, and won only 1 ). I was at least 50 50 in all situations or better. Still i won some.
      BUT
      I lost 31.25$ from the blinds ( either folded before, or on the flop ).