[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL50, AKo, what is his T raising range?

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $50.00
      SB:
      $50.25
      BB:
      $81.95
      MP2:
      $177.15
      MP3 (Hero):
      $59.10
      CO:
      $30.90


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3.75) K, 5, T (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.75, CO calls $2.75.

      Turn: ($9.25) 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $6.00, CO raises to $12.00


      Villain's stats:
      Hands: 55
      VPIP: 38
      PFR: 11
      AGR: 1.1
      Fold to cbet: 71% (7)


      I expect him to 3bet Ak, QQ+ preflop.


      As always it is hard to say exactly, what is the Villain's range here,
      when raising the turn.
      Lets try to break it down.


      Flop calling range:
      I think it might be :
      Sets: 55, TT, (sometimes raise)
      Two pair: KT (sometimes raise)
      Top pairs:KQ-KJ, K9-K2
      Middle pairs: JJ, AT, QT, JT, T9, maybe 99-77
      Draws: flush draws, maybe gutshots like 78s, 67s
      And he folds out all other hands.


      On the turn calling range:
      Top pairs:KQ-KJ, K8-K2
      Middle pairs: JJ, AT, QT, JT, - here he could fold out hands like 88-77
      Draws: maybe flush draws and fold out 67s

      On the turn raising range:
      Straights: QJ, 78s
      Sets: 55, TT, 99
      Two pairs: KT, K9, T9s


      Against turn raising range I'm:

      1,892 games 0.001 secs 1,892,000 games/sec

      Board: Ks 5c Ts 9h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 89.059% 89.06% 00.00% 1685 0.00 { TT-99, 55, KTs-K9s, QJs, T9s, 87s, KTo-K9o, QJo }
      Hand 1: 10.941% 10.94% 00.00% 207 0.00 { AhKd }


      Q: Would you change anything (ranges) on each street?
      Is that overall correct?
      I mean, he is very passive. So, he would probably raise if he had two pair and better?
  • 6 replies
    • StaticMoth
      StaticMoth
      Silver
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      5 hands is no sample to get any accurate reads/stats on him ...

      But if he was to be rly passive over a large sample of hands, minr is usually the nuts from such players - since there is a FD+OESD on the flop and he didnt raisee there, we can discount sets and rly passive players don't have the balls to raise 2 pair on an board where it isn't the nuts in general ...

      So I'd expect to see QJ there often enough ..

      Though since we don't have a decent sample on him, calling & evaluating the river seems most reasonable line.
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Oooops sorry, I meant 55 hands. I'll edit this now.
    • armo
      armo
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.03.2008 Posts: 451
      Originally posted by Anger86
      I expect him to 3bet Ak, QQ+ preflop.
      Just a small note - that still does not mean there is no QQ+/AK in his handrange - less likely still does not mean he cant have those
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      1.1 is not that passive, but I agree his turn raising range is very often two pair+, but you also have to consider he is 60bb fish who sometimes may try to bluff you out some random hands and as strong hand as AK I don´t really like b/f turn. So I´d b/c turn and likely would call him, thinking he may also make that move with 78ss or random floats.

      if you´re very sure he is not bluffing there then b/f turn, but that means also b/f aces and your hand range won´t really get too much better. So you have to call him down at one point and AK seems perfectly fine spot for that
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      1.1 is not that passive, but I agree his turn raising range is very often two pair+, but you also have to consider he is 60bb fish who sometimes may try to bluff you out some random hands and as strong hand as AK I don´t really like b/f turn. So I´d b/c turn and likely would call him, thinking he may also make that move with 78ss or random floats.

      if you´re very sure he is not bluffing there then b/f turn, but that means also b/f aces and your hand range won´t really get too much better. So you have to call him down at one point and AK seems perfectly fine spot for that

      What to do if this player has 100 BB's?
      As I understand, then it is even more of a clear fold.


      Let's take another opponent type - TAG (100 BB's):
      Hands: 1 000
      VPIP: 18
      PFR: 16
      WTSD: 22
      W$SD: 52
      AGR: 3.5


      Let's imagine, first, that we didn't have an aggressive history after 50 played hands.
      I'll assume that he will 3-bet QQ+, AK 50% of the time and will call those 50% of time to induce a squeeze from other aggressive players.


      Pre-flop calling range:
      AA, KK, - 3 combos from 6 total (because we have AK, there are three K and three A left)
      QQ - 3 combos from 6 total
      AK - 4 combos from 9 total (because we have AK, there are three K and three A left)
      Pairs: 22-TT
      Suited cards: AQs-ATs (what do you think about A9s-A2s?), ATs, KTs, KQs, KJs, QJs-65s
      Off-suit broadways: AQo, KQo


      Well, now I have to figure out, what might be his Flop calling and raising ranges.
      How would he play each hand?
      Sets: I think he would mostly raise Flop with those, because he doesn't want to see a spade as it might kill the action.
      Lets say: there are 9 set combos total and he will raise 6 of them and calls 3 of them, then raises my turn bet with the called ones.
      Two pair: KTs - I think he would raise that on the flop mostly,
      Big pairs: Slowplayed AA and AK is a raise IMO
      Monster Draws: Raise flop with monsterdraws almost always.
      Strong draws: As OP is TAG then, I think, he would most likely play lines like:
      1) Raise flop as a semibluff;
      2) Call flop with intention to raise turn as a semibluff (but second one I would expect, if we had some aggressive history - where I possibly 2nd barrel a lot or smthg).
      Middle pairs: QQ, JJ, ATs - plays passively most of the time (like bluffcatchers, but nothing more, I think).


      Then Vs. Turn raise, when we didn't have an aggressive history I'm: Between 22% and about 32% equity, if he raises with flush draws:

      Board: Ks 5c Ts 9h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 76.515% 76.52% 00.00% 303 0.00 { KcKs, TcTd, 5h5s, AsQs, AsJs, QJs, 8s7s }
      Hand 1: 23.485% 23.48% 00.00% 93 0.00 { AhKd }



      Question then is:
      What range should he be bluffing with, so I could proffitably call?

      I think his range could change,
      if I was playing very aggressive and double barreling a lot,
      because my 2ndB range obviously is weak then. That way he gets a lot of FE.
      Let's add some AsXs, spade connectors and 76s to his range:

      Board: Ks 5c Ts 9h
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 43.079% 43.08% 00.00% 417 0.00 { KcKs, TcTd, 5h5s, AsQs, AsJs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, QJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, 76s }
      Hand 1: 56.921% 56.92% 00.00% 551 0.00 { AhKd }


      Now we only split. I dont expect to see a lot of bluffs also and this is the weakest range I could find.

      Conclusion: If we have a very aggressive metagame, I'm still pretty much beat in this spot and in best scenario I'm probably getting 0EV, when calling.
      As folding is also 0EV, then folding in this spot could better, because of variance and the fact, that people in these stakes might not be adjusting at all to my 2nd barrels.


      Thank you for taking another look. Hope to hear from ya soon.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Even if he is full stack, if your table image is quite bad then he may try to bluff you still a lot of hands that has some equity against your hand, like AQ or valueraise turn for value KQ/KJ. So you really have to be sure he is raising turn only with two pair+ and I think nl 50 you see players also make moves on the turn although likely 38/11 doesn´t think about that.

      As folding is also 0EV, then folding in this spot could better, because of variance and the fact, that people in these stakes might not be adjusting at all to my 2nd barrels
      - fold is fine, but if your table image is bad you should expect that they would play back to you at some point and AK is not really the worst hand that you can hold there. So likely I´d still b/c turn and evaluate river