[NL2-NL10] NL5 QQ set vs tigh

    • B0st0n
      Joined: 31.03.2010 Posts: 8,323
      Full Tilt Poker $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

      BTN: $4.48
      SB: $5.00 - VPIP: 12, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.7, Hands: 841
      BB: $5.00
      Hero (UTG): 5.79
      UTG+1: $7.61
      UTG+2: $5.00
      MP1: $1.95 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 45
      MP2: $7.26
      CO: $1.88

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is UTG with Q :diamond: Q :spade:
      Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.20, 3 folds, SB raises to $0.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.60, MP1 calls $0.60

      I only call preflop, because I know his range is very very tight here, as we have some history and I assume he knows I am not raising from UTG light, I d say something AK, JJ+ (might be even tighter) and I have position on him postflop

      Flop: ($2.45) Q :heart: K :heart: 4 :heart: (3 players)
      SB bets $3.00 HERO ??

      I hit my set, but he overbets pot leavinf 1.20 behind , can I continue here or am I beat here most of the time and have to fold? Or should I fold those queens preflop to his 3bet?
  • 5 replies
    • theguy
      Joined: 16.07.2009 Posts: 215
      looks to me like an easy shove. He overbets because he's scared of a flush probably. the only hand that beats you here is KK. He would probably play pretty much the same way if he has AA or AK. I think that folding is definitely too weak.
    • Saren113
      Joined: 06.03.2009 Posts: 2,867
      AKs and KK is the only combos who got you beat.

      it's 3 possible combos, rest is either drawing hands or wose hand then your.

      I think he would bet that size with AK. I would go for it in this spot tbh.

      his c bet OOP it feels like hes defending against a one hand flush.
    • Andyuk18
      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      Tricky spot but you just got to call it!
    • dallievas
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      Tricky spot but you just got to call it!

      what tricky spot?
      us beat 4 combos in 3 bet pot (KK 3+ 1 AhKh) ,we beat 12 combos (4 AA,12 AK) ,so 25% vs 75% and you have 3.8:1 redraw to fh (less if he have KK).
      Board: Kh Qh 4h
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 26.760% 25.14% 01.62% 15678 1012.50 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
      Hand 1: 73.240% 71.62% 01.62% 44667 1012.50 { QQ }

      So what we do with 50% plus equity? Push Shove All in
      And if he have fd (Ah x) :
      Board: Kh Qh 4h
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 32.980% 32.98% 00.00% 5877 0.00 { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh }
      Hand 1: 67.020% 67.02% 00.00% 11943 0.00 { QQ }

      Is this the case of so called "either Or " thinking fallacy in my reply? :D

    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello B0st0n,

      As you Called preflop then you can't really fold it or anything like that to do here. Calling would be also pointless since the pot on turn would be big enough to even Call it when flush hits. Therefore just shove it on flop, there are still a lot worse hands which he may have and of course if he even has here flush or whatever, we still have outs for FH.

      Best regards.