[NL20-NL50] [SH] Flopping set fold turn raise?

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - $0.50 NL - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (SB): $104.67
      BB: $52.05
      UTG: $75.24 VP:15/PR:10 over 300 hands.
      CO: $51.74
      BTN: $148.26

      Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has 6:heart: 6:spade:

      UTG raises to $1.50, fold, fold, Hero calls $1.25, fold

      Flop: ($3.50, 2 players) Q:diamond: 6:club: J:spade:
      Hero checks, UTG bets $3.00, Hero raises to $8.00, UTG calls $5.00

      Turn: ($19.50, 2 players) 8:spade:
      Hero bets $14.00, UTG raises to $34.50, Hero calls $20.50

      River: ($88.50, 2 players) T:club:
      Hero checks, UTG bets $31.24, Hero calls $31.24

      When he calls my C/R on the flop his range is JJ+ I think. QJ shouldnt be in his tight range
      When he raises my turn bet after I C/R the flop I think he has JJ or QQ

      Easy B/Fold on the turn?
  • 7 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      His range can´t be too many 9Ts hands and I doubt he is opening utg 9To
      Not really sure he is raising that turn QQ/JJ, since you can have there sometimes 9T and I´m also not sure why he is shoving river with QQ/JJ
      Since I`m suspicious I´d also call down with 66. Too few hands beat you and he can take that line smt like KT, sometimes with QJ
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      KT,QJ isn't in his range.
      He is 15/10 so lets say he raises 7% from UTG: 77+,ATs,AQo+

      Which hands would call my flop raise and raise turn from the range above?
      Only JJ and QQ even though it is a bit weird since I can have 9T, I think that's all he can have.
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      His range can´t be too many 9Ts hands and I doubt he is opening utg 9To
      Not really sure he is raising that turn QQ/JJ, since you can have there sometimes 9T and I´m also not sure why he is shoving river with QQ/JJ
      Since I`m suspicious I´d also call down with 66. Too few hands beat you and he can take that line smt like KT, sometimes with QJ
      KTs and QJs?
      If he is open-raising BU: 25, CO:20, MP:15, UTG10, SB: 20 (something in between CO and BU).
      Then average would be: (25+20+15+10+20)/5=18, which is too much, so it's
      about, all position divided by 2, then it would be 9, which is close.
      Sometimes, these OP's play UTG: 7 and also MP:7.
      Sometimes, from all positions 10, so the average would also be 10.

      OK. Let's say UTG PFR is between 6-10.

      Let's first start with 10%:


      As you see, both KTs and QJs are a posible cards for him to open-raise.
      I think, that he will open small pairs more often than those,
      so it could change - and he wouln't have either of them.

      Second, 6%:


      I don't expect to see these hands here at all.

      If he has a flop raise continuation range of JJ+, then on the Turn we are:
      Board: Qd 6c Js 8s
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 35.606% 35.61% 00.00% 282 0.00 { JJ+ }
      Hand 1: 64.394% 64.39% 00.00% 510 0.00 { 6h6s }

      And on the River situation doesn't change - 66%.


      Now, I think, it's more realistic, that he will have SC hand more often than suited two gapper.
      Then flop continuation range is:
      JJ+, QJs

      Then situation is about the same.
      Turn equity - 67%, but River - 70%.

      KT also wouldn't change much, either.


      So, the question is - would he play this way with AA or KK?
      I think, he would rather just c/c AA and KK on the T and R.
      What about AK?
      I think it's a fold on the flop, as it is UTG vs. SB, then ranges are very strong most of the time.
      If that was BU (Villain) vs. SB, then I think it's cool to ck/r T, if Villain thinks that Hero is playing back Vs. his high flop c-bet.
      So - no AK.
      JJ and QQ remain as the only strong hands here.

      R is really confusing, though.

      Q: So, my main questoin is:
      Do you expect Villain to open random cards from UTG?
      I mean - Sometimes bet or fold pocket pairs and the same with KTs, QJs?


      To Dublimax:
      Can you, please, give some other stats like AGR/T AGR/R AGR/PFR UTG?
      Pop-up picture would be perfect.

      I mean - if he is very aggressive on the turn, he might also have AA or KK there.
      Some people think, these are nuts.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      KT,QJ isn't in his range.
      He is 15/10 so lets say he raises 7% from UTG: 77+,ATs,AQo+

      Which hands would call my flop raise and raise turn from the range above?
      Only JJ and QQ even though it is a bit weird since I can have 9T, I think that's all he can have.
      I think he would likely open suited broadway hands utg, but I agree if you don´t put any bluffs in his range, then your equity really isn´t the best against his value/semibluffing range

      board: QdJs6c8s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      66 26.22% 450 0
      QQ, JJ, QcJc, QdJd, AsKs, KsTs, T9s 73.78% 1,266 0

      But if you add his turn raising range also AA; KK then you´re favorite and shouldn´t fold

      board: QdJs6c8s
      Hand Equity Wins Ties
      66 59.45% 1,962 0
      QQ, JJ, QcJc, QdJd, AsKs, KsTs, T9s, AA, KK 40.55% 1,338 0

      So you have to be really sure he isn´t raising turn with overpairs, since if he does, you´re making very big mistake by folding there 66. That´s why I like calling him down.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      to anger question:

      Q: So, my main questoin is:
      Do you expect Villain to open random cards from UTG?
      I mean - Sometimes bet or fold pocket pairs and the same with KTs, QJs?

      I don´t expect him to open random cards, like 47s, but I think suited broadway is in his range, mostly he would open pp-s and maybe fold KJs rather than folding 22 and opening KJs. But 300 hands isn´t that much that you can say he is always folding there for example QJs
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      I have only 300 hands on Villain but it looks like he is playing all position the same and the blinds very tight.
      So his range from UTG is 10 which is : 66+, A8s+, KJs+, ATo+
      With a bit of variation he could have QJs indeed.

      His Aggression factor is F:1.6/T:1.6 (river only 30 hands so meaningless).

      The real question imo is whith which hands he would raise turn?
      I think he would Call with AA or KK as said anger.
      Would he raise with QJ?

      On turn vs JJ,QQ I am dead
      On turn vs JJ,QQ,QJs I have only 24% equity.


      [quote]Originally posted by Kaitz20
      So you have to be really sure he isn´t raising turn with overpairs, since if he does, you´re making very big mistake by folding there 66.[/QUOTE]

      In fact I think it all comes down to this. but again I doubt he is especially since we are deep
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If you´re sure he is not raising turn worse hands then you can fold. It is not definitely situation where you have to stack off.