[NL2-NL10] NL10 QJ 2 pair against shove

    • nktns
      nktns
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 452
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($6.16)
      BB ($10.77)
      UTG ($16.53)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      CO ($11.30)
      Hero ($11.38)

      Dealt to Hero Q:club: J:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

      FLOP ($0.90) 6:diamond: J:heart: Q:diamond:

      SB checks, BB bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.70, SB calls $0.70, BB raises to $10.47 (AI), Hero raises to $11.08 (AI), SB folds

      TURN ($22.54) 6:diamond: J:heart: Q:diamond: 4:diamond:

      RIVER ($22.54) 6:diamond: J:heart: Q:diamond: 4:diamond: 4:heart:

      vpip: 21, pfr: 5, af: 15.0, 3bet: 5% (39), 114 hands

      With 5% 3bet i think he will squeeze QQ/JJ here right? So it comes down to 66 that beats me so cant really fold right?
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello nktns,

      First of all, I'd even raise bigger there, ~$1,20 and when he decides to jam in there. It's kinda ugly, just I have seen so many times when people do such minbets on flop and then when we raise them they shove with pretty strong hand. Although I don't really think that we can get away from here.

      I'd put him on such a range:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 39,751% 39,596% 0,311% 60,093% JJ, 66, AQs, KdJd, AQo
      Player 2: 60,249% 60,093% 0,311% 39,596% QcJs

      Since the stats indicate that he may as well Call with AQo here and I wouldn't even be surprised when he would also shove it. And of course we could even widen up the range there because of his AF. Where we could put flushdraws as well into his hand. So therefore I'd say it ain't wrong. And of course take a note on him.

      Best regards.