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Someone tell me WHAT THE CHANCES of this happening is? Any math smart ppl?

    • BrokesoBroke
      BrokesoBroke
      Black
      Joined: 23.10.2007 Posts: 889
      I was dealt KK in the CO, BU 3bets me, I 4bet, he shoves 100bb, opens AA. I lost the hand. THE NEXT HAND, I'm in the HJ dealt KK again, I open, the next BU 3bets me, I 4bet, he shoves, opens AA... And wins...

      Now I thought to myself, what are the chances of this happening on the same table?

      The following day which is today... obviously on another table... I'm dealt AA... I open UTG, I get 3b by a 50bb stack, I 4b, he shoves... He opens up KK... I won that hand... THE NEXT HAND, I'm dealt AA again, UTG opens, I 3bet to 10bb, BU shoves for 87bb, and UTG shoves on top of that for 100bb... I snap call, and UTG had KK... Rivered a K...

      But what are the chances of this happening to the same player two hands in a row having either KK twice or AA twice and at the same time another player has AA or KK????
  • 12 replies
    • variancekiller
      variancekiller
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2010 Posts: 896
      Originally posted by BrokesoBroke
      I was dealt KK in the CO, BU 3bets me, I 4bet, he shoves 100bb, opens AA. I lost the hand. THE NEXT HAND, I'm in the HJ dealt KK again, I open, the next BU 3bets me, I 4bet, he shoves, opens AA... And wins...

      Now I thought to myself, what are the chances of this happening on the same table?

      The following day which is today... obviously on another table... I'm dealt AA... I open UTG, I get 3b by a 50bb stack, I 4b, he shoves... He opens up KK... I won that hand... THE NEXT HAND, I'm dealt AA again, UTG opens, I 3bet to 10bb, BU shoves for 87bb, and UTG shoves on top of that for 100bb... I snap call, and UTG had KK... Rivered a K...

      But what are the chances of this happening to the same player two hands in a row having either KK twice or AA twice and at the same time another player has AA or KK????
      odds are slim!
    • ExMagnusxL
      ExMagnusxL
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2010 Posts: 59
      6 combos for any specific pocket pair total possible starting hand combos is 1326

      Ratio 6:1326 = 1:221

      Any two random hands both having a specifc pocket pair:

      1*1:221*221 = 1:48841

      Happened to me today as well AA twice in BU then CO made a grand total of $0.15 at NL2. :s_cool:
    • BrokesoBroke
      BrokesoBroke
      Black
      Joined: 23.10.2007 Posts: 889
      Did your opponents have KK? What are the odds of that happening two times in a row when you hold AA? Or the other way around, you having KK two hands in a row running into AA?
    • IIJonasII
      IIJonasII
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2009 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by ExMagnusxL

      1*1:221*221 = 1:48841

      Op has kk so its 1 to 221 rest of the table has AA so its 1 to 221*5 and then all ^2 (2 times) and its 8,70*10^7 just guess dont think its right :)
    • scriptacle
      scriptacle
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2011 Posts: 37
      I lost AA to KK on 2 different tables vs the same opp at the same time. He floped K on both tables almost at once, I was going to have heart attack. Happened a third time on a different table, all yesterday.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,190
      Hey lucky man :f_cool:

      Probability of being dealt a particular pocket pair (KK):

      0.45%

      (6 ways you can make a pair with 2 cards/all possible combinations of 2 cards (52x51/2 -> divided by 2 so you don't count a same hand twice: 3s4c is the same as 4c3s)

      At a table with N players, the probability that other player has another particular PP (AA):

      (N-1)x0.48% (= 3.92% for N=9)

      (6 / (50x49/2) <-you are discounting the cards you have been dealt )

      Then, for FR (9 players) the probability that other player is holding AA while you are holding KK (or viceversa):

      0.45%x3.92% = 0.017%

      Now, if you look at the event as a succession you could say:

      probability of this happening in hand 1: 0.017%
      probability of this happening in hand 1 and 2: 0.017%x0.017% = 2.9^(-6)%, or around 3 in 100,000,000

      (People out there, please correct me if I am wrong)

      The odds of winning the euromillion are 1 in 76,275,360. I think you just had it even better! However, I don't envy you... :f_biggrin:

      S.

      Edit: (by the way, how many hands have you played so far?)
    • r4t4n123
      r4t4n123
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2010 Posts: 12
      @topic creator

      your answer would be 1:48841*1:48841 = 1 : 23 854 823 538
      But the thing is there are more than 1000s of billion hand played in the world.
      So it is possible. :s_cool:
    • r4t4n123
      r4t4n123
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2010 Posts: 12
      oops i did the maths wrong it is 1 : 2 385 443 281
      1 in 2 billion
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,190
      I have just noticed that you are looking at the same player every time. In that case,

      Player A holding AA while you hold KK: 0.45%x0.48% = 0.002%

      Chances of this happening twice in a row: (0.002%)^2 = 4^-8 %, i.e.,

      4 in 10,000,000,000 (4 in 10 billions)

      (r4t4n123, I think the small difference comes from my calculation of the probability of the other player having AA once you were dealt KK -> 2 cards are not in the deck anymore)

      S.

      edit: to wrap it up. If my calculations are correct, then

      You being dealt KK and someone else AA twice in a row:
      3 in 100,000,000

      You beind dealt KK and the same player having AA twice in a row:
      4 in 10,000,000,000

      -
    • IIJonasII
      IIJonasII
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2009 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by argentina71
      I have just noticed that you are looking at the same player every time.
      You noticed wrong BU cannot but same in both hands.
    • MrPavlos
      MrPavlos
      Global
      Joined: 12.02.2009 Posts: 553
      i still think its 50:50
    • Alleen86
      Alleen86
      Silver
      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 5,334
      Once I get AA at the same table tree times in a row.. :D What are chances for that??

      Unfortunatelly, I just collected blinds in all tree hands.. :s_confused: