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[NL2-NL10] Nl 10 KQo against push

    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Known players: (for a description of vp$ip, pfr, ats, folded bb, af, wts, wsd or hands click here)        
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $10.39
      UTG:
      $2.43

      0.05/0.10 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: Texas Grabem 1.9 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q:diamond: , K:club:
      UTG calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 5 folds, UTG calls $0.40.

      Flop: ($1.15) T:diamond: , J:spade: , T:heart: (2 players)
      UTG bets $1.93 (All-In), Hero folds.

      Final Pot: $3.08

      UTG really knows how to defend his pair:D I would have bet/call flop, but even if I believe that 70% he has 22-88 I should fold it?
  • 4 replies
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      30% trips: 8 outs: 31.45%, 193 for 308 = 1:1.6, you need 38% to win.

      30% * 31.45% * 308 = 290598

      30% * 68.55% * -100 = -396904.5

      70% pair, 14 outs: 51.16%

      70% * 51.16 * 308 = 1103009.6

      70% * 48.84 * -193 = -659828.4

      = 336874.6.

      Only problem is, he could have AJ/KJ/QJ, but I actually think you can call here...
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Don´t believe that other 30% he has trips. Trips would check/call flop, check turn and then push the river against my straight:)
      He can have QJ, J9, 89 maybe KQ. Some draw or Jx.
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Don´t believe that other 30% he has trips. Trips would check/call flop, check turn and then push the river against my straight:)
      He can have QJ, J9, 89 maybe KQ. Some draw or Jx.
      Then you should call, because you have at least 11 outs, enough here.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      IF you don't mind the higher variance, you can call here with 2 overcards and an OESD.