[NL2-NL10] NL10 6max Rush, A high FD + 2 overs

    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Villains stats: 20/14/3.0 during 169 hands.

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (CO) ($10.35)
      Button ($25.73)
      SB ($8.14)
      BB ($4)
      UTG ($23.13)
      MP ($23.54)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A
      1 fold, MP bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.85) 7, 10, 9 (2 players)
      MP bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, MP raises to $23.19 (All-In), Hero ???

      This is pretty nasty spot for me. Of course I'm not folding the flop but I absolutely don't know what would be the most +EV decision here. If I call and make my flush the action is gonna be dead and my nut flush doesn't pay off. If I don't hit then even worse - I might need to call huge bet on the turn to take small enough pot or give up on the river.
      So I decide to raise for some value expecting some value from his call, but goddammit - I knew he's going to shove here anything that is not bluff (overpairs, sets, straights, maybe even flushes). Of course he does and what now?
  • 3 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello Bliausmas,

      That's kinda problematic actually and raising on flop is also depending on the opponent. How often does he fold to CBet raises, how often does he go to the showdown? Overall I guess if he is some kind of passive guy we could consider here raising, although sometimes I even see just Calling be better and taking the odds. If he even has some kind of hand like overpair, he still could have any kind of in it which is going to Call us even if we hit.

      For small example sets, overpairs equity:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 60,247% 59,757% 0,980% 39,263% 99+, 77
      Player 2: 39,753% 39,263% 0,980% 59,757% AsQd

      So therefore if he shoves, we rather have to fold, we don't get proper equity against him to make the Call profitable. And for break-even we need like 41+% equity.

      Best regards.
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Yeah, now I see I get a bad equity even against only sets and overpairs, and if including straights and flushes, it would be easy fold. Gambling is no good again :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Yeah, now I see I get a bad equity even against only sets and overpairs, and if including straights and flushes, it would be easy fold. Gambling is no good again :)
      Yep, rather don't gamble and try to play for the best equity. Even though you sometimes get beaten. But when you play correctly all the time then just in long run you should earn profit. :) Of course there are situations where you like add equity+fold equity and such stuff into the pot and you make the shove or something similar. But those are just other spots not where you have to Call it.