[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH TT against squeeze

    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 4,956
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($2.38)
      BB ($13.95)
      UTG ($4.85)
      UTG+1 ($11.76)
      Hero ($10)
      BTN ($24.32)

      Dealt to Hero T:heart: T:spade:

      fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, BTN raises to $1.10, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2.70, BTN raises to $5.90, Hero raises to $10 (AI), BTN calls $4.10

      UTG+1 20/20 11 hands

      BTN 20/17/3.1 3bet 14.1, 269 hands

      I thought this player has position and feels weakness so he might squeeze with weak hands there. Even his squeeze is not high. So I decided to 4bet.

      But the problem is that I have to go allin if I 4bet. But for allin my hand is not so good. Against QQ+, AK I have 36 %. The fold equity should be something like 100-36 = 64% because I have invested almost nothing before 4bet - only 3bb. So, more than half of his hands he should fold. So probably not the best spot to 4bet.

      But what to do then - callin OOP sucks, I don't have good odds. Fold?
      Also - as the UTG+1 raisese, he could have stronger range so the BTN should 3bet with strong hands more often so I guess this is easy fold now.

      While writing I answered my question, but now will not delete so much text :)
  • 3 replies
    • JonikoP
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      To break down the 4-bet mathmatically:

      We bet $2.70 to win $1.85 so it has to work 2.70/(2.70+1.85) = 59% of the time to show a proft in a vacuum.

      Say he's squeezing with his whole 3-betting range (14%) and continuing with QQ+, AK (2.56%). His continuing range as a percentage of his 3-betting range is 2.56/14 = 18.3% so the 4-bet is profitable if these assumptions about his range are correct. (They are probably not given that he's squeezed an EP raiser).

      And the 6-bet shove:

      I haven't checked the equity but using your numbers Ts have 36% equity against QQ+, AK. For these numbers, I am also assuming he never folds after 5 betting (which is probably correct):

      We are betting 7.30 to win 12.70 (not accounting for rake). So our required equity to make the shove breakeven is 7.30/12.70+7.30 = 36% (but has a -ve expectation when we factor in rake).
    • SPeedFANat1c
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 4,956
      Good explaination :) so my move was not that terrible as I thought. It is around break even. And also I make my image more loose so the next time when I will have AA, he might go allin with JJ if he takes a note.

      Edit - but yeah, I will not have AA there, because I 3bet it against EP raiser :)
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello SPeedFANat1c,

      It once again depends on the opponent and of course sometimes even on our image. For example how often have you played back against him? Has he done such squeezes earlier? What's his squeezing %? How often does he 3bet from blinds? There are just so many factors.

      But as given those kind of stats and his 3bet is actually very high and I often expect him doing such a squeeze as well with very weak hands then I don't mind there even going broke, unless he really has low squeeze %, which sometimes some people are that kind of type. They don't abuse the squeeze spot very often. Overall, I often times play back as well against those opponents and likely start from TT+ doing that kind of thing.

      Plus when I see him being like a super maniac, I even sometimes trap those kind of opponents even with KK/AA. Yes, I call there. :) Just to make them stop squeezing against us. I have made so many people get tilted with it. I had once a session where I was running like a god and got so many KK/AA type of hands and I had a squeezer, a big squeezer and I made him go all-in like 3 times and I always won. :) And guess how tilted he was from that? He was very pissed. Every time he started even loosing up his range because of that and was easy money for me. Although I wouldn't recommend doing that against unknown.

      Just gave an overview where sometimes you could consider even Calling with AA and trapping. :) Plus such moves as well sometimes help to avoid people squeezing you next time. They just tighten up seeing you a lot doing such moves.

      Best regards.