[NL2-NL10] 10NL FR llimped/called 66 vs. nit

    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Good moooorniiiing

      I think I am starting to get the hang of calculating moves with Equilator. Can you check if my analysis here is ok please? (also the play, of course, which I still don't know if to feel embarrased about or proud... :f_confused: )

      Villain is supernit, superaggro. We have history. He always raises the hell out of me, because let's face it: I am a loose fish. He is 14/8/5 over 240 hands (most of the 14 VPIP, 8 PRF is vs. me) - cbets 100% (9/9), check raises, high 3bet on flop, etc. I show you the hand and afterwards how I used Equilab on this:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):
      $10.55
      CO:
      $11.01
      BU:
      $12.11
      SB:
      $10.00
      BB:
      $4.00
      MP1:
      $17.84
      MP2:
      $12.27


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 6, 6.
      MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, CO folds, BU raises to $0.60, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.45) 4, 3, 5 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $1.00, Hero raises to $3.00, BU raises to $11.51, Hero calls $6.95.

      Turn: ($22.91) 4 (2 players)


      River: ($22.91) 2 (2 players)


      Final Pot: $22.91.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows a straight, six high(6 6).
      BU shows a straight, five high(A A).

      Hero wins with a straight, six high(6 6).

      So, the stats I am looking at in this hand are:
      - PFR with previous callers: 13% (6/48)
      - CBet on flop: 100% (9/9)
      - Fold to raise 50% (3/6)

      (Any others I should look at?)

      I limp/call there because he is superaggressive after the flop, it think he will pay me very well if I flop a set (I always calculate implied odds for set 10:1 roughly, to take into account rake, and to be on the up side of pay outs). So implied odds there are ok.

      I know the sample of situations is small (any ideas on how to approximate ranges?). I will go towards the side of caution, so I am going to reduce the range of PFR w/prev. callers to about 8%, which leaves me with 77+ ATs+ AJo+.

      Flop: Vs. that range, I am a little better than a coinflip with that flop (58% vs 42%, i.e., 1.4 : 1 in my favour). When he Cbets, because he cbets all hands (particulary vs. loose fish like me), I keep the range as it is.

      Now I check raise. (Is it correct to look at this like: 'I am risking $3 to win $2.45, i.e., I am getting 1 : 1.2 ?' )
      After I check raise him, he pushes. I am assigning him a pushing range of 99+, and ATs+ where the suited connects with the suit on the board. Vs. 99+ I am 39% to 61% underdog, or 1:1.6 against. The pot odds in this case are 1:2.3. When I add the flush draws (I am taking AdTd+) I get 40% to 60%, 1:1.5.

      (Usually I prefer to have more room between pot odds and my odds of making it, but I am starting to think that vs. this kind of player it is very difficult to get it any better)

      What do you think?

      Thanks a lot,

      S.
  • 7 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello MisClick,

      First of all, the odds and stuff thing should be somewhat fine. Although I wouldn't really concentrate on that in this situation. Rather I'd concentrate what we want to achieve with the Check/Raise there? Only reasonable line would be to Check/Raise there is that if we knew that he is going to fold his overpairs and while he ain't gonna do it, then I don't like it at all. We will often times just be behind and in long run losing money against him. Therefore I'd rather even prefer donking here, which makes almost the same fold equity as you did.

      And one thing also to mention out is that you might even want to isolate the limper preflop and raise it up, although just Calling ain't wrong.

      Best regards.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Great, thank you veriz :)

      So I suppose it was a fishy play :f_biggrin:

      The part I am finding tricky to think about (and that I am working on) is 'what do I want to accomplish with the check-raise'. My thoughts at the moment were: I am pushing him out of hands that I am beating but which I don't want to keep here because my pocket pair is not great vs. his range to see turn and river. If an overcard comes I will have to fold it and he is aggro. 66 it's like towards the bottom half. Also, he can fold some pocket pairs like 77,88 (not sure if he's folding 99 here...he might). Do you think he puts me all in with QQ+ + any A-face flush draw? So if I re-raise I might win the pot now and there (and I don't want to drag this along the streets with him being so aggro), if he pushes all in I have outs? I find it really tricky how to think about these situations, because by the time I can narrow his range, the pot is giving me good odds because of the money I payed already in order to find out :f_eek: (and money went into the pot is not mine anymore)

      ?(
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Those players on those limits pretty often go broke with QQ+ here unless you have some other reads like WTS and etc stats.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Oh, I forgot about the play where I donk. I quite like that one. Now, what do I do in that case if he re-raises me? And if he insta-shoves? (He has no respect for me ;( )

      (Hey, I just noticed your coaching blog. Can I just join in or is it only for live coaching feedback?)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by MisClick
      Oh, I forgot about the play where I donk. I quite like that one. Now, what do I do in that case if he re-raises me? And if he insta-shoves? (He has no respect for me ;( )
      If you feel like he is going to raise you a lot there, you can easily just Check/Call and play with the odds. :) And if you don't hit then you still can fold it.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Oups, I edited my previous post too late.
      So it goes here. I just noticed you have a coaching blog, can I just join in or is it only live coaching related?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by MisClick
      Oups, I edited my previous post too late.
      So it goes here. I just noticed you have a coaching blog, can I just join in or is it only live coaching related?
      Everyone can join in there. :) Ye it's on every Tuesday with hasenbraten.