Big Draw

    • Depor07
      Depor07
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 28
      Playing Six Max NL5 an had an interesting hand

      MP2 $4.50
      MP3 $5.61
      Co $5.00
      BU $4.32
      SB $3.20
      Hero $5.50 8 :heart: 6 :heart:

      MP2 Fold, MP3 call 5c, Co Fold, BU Fold, SB raise 17c, Hero call 12c
      MP3 raise 55, SB call 38, Hero call 38
      Pot $1.65

      Flop 4 :club: 8 :spade: ,5 :club:

      SB Check, Hero Check, MP3 bet 85c, SB call, Hero Call
      Pot $4.20

      Turn 3 :diamond:

      SB Check, Hero Check, MP3 All in $4.21, SB call $1.80, Hero call $4.10

      River 10 :diamond:

      MP3 K :heart: K :club: $4.71
      SB 10 :spade: 10 :heart: $15.51

      Looks like a really badly played hand, but with 14 good outs on the river and 2.5 to 1?
      The cold call a raise and reraise, well I figure they both have big cards and Im getting away from it easily if I miss. Top pair on the flop, maybe its a bit speculative but AK, AQ are not out of the question for opponents hand ranges, and with the inside straight draw, pots offering 4/1, against tight hand ranges then I have nine clean outs, 9/46 19.5%. Enough Implied odds there to make this call profitable. Maybe Im up against a big AK :club: , so maybe only 6 outs, but in that case Im ahead of one player at least.
      Then river with the open end straight draw and any 6 or 8 hits me as well. 14 Outs, by this time I have them both on big pokets so Im effectively 14/42, pot offers 2.5/1, I need 2/1 so easy call. Once they both move in the way the hand has played out Im reducing the ranges to big pairs only so Im upping my outs.

      Played 100 times I win $10.11 33 times $330.63
      I lose $4.10 67 times $274.70
      Net Profit $55.93

      But of course over the whole hand I lose $5.50 67 times $368
      Net loss of $37.37

      But anyway enough of my rambling, what do you think?
  • 10 replies
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      hmmmm

      that is what I see:

      you got only 22% equity on the flop so I fold here and there


      http://www.PokerStrategy.com
      Operation canceled... 3,979,547 games processed in 2 seconds.

      Board: 8s 5c 4c
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 38.586 % 37.575 % 2.229 % 60.196 % 44+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c
      Player 2: 22.730 % 21.450 % 2.767 % 75.783 % 8h6h
      Player 3: 38.685 % 37.670 % 2.237 % 60.093 % 44+, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c


      ----------------------------------------
    • JonikoP
      JonikoP
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 600
      Erm, fold preflop?
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by JonikoP
      Erm, fold preflop?
      also :D
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.06.2010 Posts: 7,291
      How is a pair with a gutterball a big draw? If you had 8c6c then ok, its a big draw.
      I like your call preflop, 86s is my favourite hand. :D
    • Depor07
      Depor07
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 28
      So your saying bad play all round. :f_biggrin:
      Yeh Im folding preflop alot of the time, but a 3-bet pot is where Im likely to get someones whole stack and thats what Im playing for. Suited connectors and small pockets, but I need to let them go when the action gets to hot and heavy.
      I got really trapped in there, pot kept on offering ok odds, but never good enough.
      Anyway cheers for the feedback.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Hey, I like the preflop call. When he is limping raising you kind of know what he has, and you get the whole stack if you hit good. Also SB squeezing and then flatting is good. On the flop you will be sandwiched in the action which is good too, because you will be last to act after MP3 Cbet.

      However, not sure flop play is ok. I like to analyse this kind of situation going from worse case scenario to a better case, and adding some odds/outs from there: There, with that action, I want to make a str8, but let's be kind of optimistic and happy with 2 pair too. When things seem tough (we know he has a big pair there most probably), I would count my odds with 1 card to come, because he is not going to give you a free card on turn (May be if an ace hit, but that is unlikely too. And he might well have AA there). Anyways, on flop the straight forward way, you have 2 (8's) + 2 (6's) + 4 (7's) = 8 outs, at best. At worst, some of those cards might not even be of any help if SB has a FD, for which he is getting good odds at every street. Also, even if you make your 2 pair on turn, you need to avoid being counterfeited on the river (K, T, 5, 4, but sometimes you make a boat). I know that bet seems weak, but I would think things in terms of needing to hit it on the turn first, or reconsider outs. I would count your odds here (without discount) as 4.75:1 against. Now: you might want to make it better as you might get a free card, or they might bet small, etc., at the same time that you discount some outs. I don't know how to quantify this, but being optimistic something like 3.5:1? Pot is giving you 3.35:1, so kind of borderline. It is true you get implied odds there, but I wouldn't be so sure that hitting your str8 would give you much action if players are reasonable, as it would be obvious that you need only a 6 to have a straight...Even 2 pair might not work as they will see any 5 gives a str8...

      From turn to river, you get 4 more outs (2's), so 12 (did I miss something here? How do you get 14 outs?) In this case, you get 2.83:1 against. Pot giving you 2.5:1, so not very good, and if you discount some outs, you are even worse...


      (And of course, I think the better way is to use Equilab there and look at your EV...But just trying to think about it in a more classic way :) )

      EDIT: mistake: I was counting 2 (6's) instead of 3 (duh) :) It would have ended up the same, but my idea was to put out all the outs and then discount. I think I still keep the odds I end up the same though
    • Depor07
      Depor07
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 28
      Yeh I over did my outs there, just trying to justify some bad moves. included the clubs which are no good. (In the end they were good, but I couldnt know that).
      Sometimes I just trap myself, trying to be tricky. :D
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Don't play suited connectors in 3bet pots anymore. I had the very same leak and it cost me huge money. The problem is that the pot is already big preflop and if you don't hit - it's a waste of money. If you hit and your opponent doesn't continue his aggression - you win a small pot that isn't worth the price paid preflop. If your opponent continues his aggression (what is ofc the most likely option) and you have monster - congrats, stack him off, but the huge majority of time you will have kinda hit the flop, just like in this example - top pair with gutterball. Or weak flush draw, ir smth similar. And then the pot is already big, your opponent is attacking, you are drawing, you miss your draws most of the time, and you know.. you're fucked up most of the time in these spots :)

      Btw it's ok to be tricky like this in highers limits, but in micros.. Value bet value bet value bet till death :) That's the profitable way to play there.
    • MisClick
      MisClick
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.05.2008 Posts: 1,186
      Originally posted by Depor07
      Yeh I over did my outs there, just trying to justify some bad moves. included the clubs which are no good. (In the end they were good, but I couldnt know that).
      Sometimes I just trap myself, trying to be tricky. :D
      Hi Depor, I just edited my post with this:

      I found my mistake, I was counting 2 (6's) instead of 4 (duh) :) It would have ended up the same, but my idea was to put out all the outs and then discount. So your outs counting is ok, sorry about that. I think I still keep the odds I end up the same though

      Regarding trickiness...I like thinking about tricky situations. For example, at the moment I have this big question mark all over my brain on how do you cope with odds and range adjusting once you get more information on a given street. It is definitely true, like Bliausmas says, that it won't make a difference if I sort it out at the micros. I don't know if it will even make a difference later but I like puzzles so...from time to time I like to think about them :D

      EDIT: What is going on with me? :f_confused: There is only 3 (6's) left. Duh. And another DUH!
    • thazar
      thazar
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.09.2009 Posts: 6,560
      Originally posted by Depor07
      Yeh I over did my outs there, just trying to justify some bad moves. included the clubs which are no good. (In the end they were good, but I couldnt know that).
      Sometimes I just trap myself, trying to be tricky. :D

      rather than just calculating your outs, try to put him on a range and calculate your equity against it.

      Regards