flopplay: playing a likely 15 outs aggressively?

    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XoSANAoe-A&feature=related

      please comment. i noticed that the commentator is very much against this play, however in my opinion if matusow had a slightly smaller stack, it would be an easy move to make because of the fold equity he has against middle pocket pairs, etc. as it stands, in my opinion the play is neither right nor wrong.. although assuming mike is a stronger player than these opponents, i would perhaps tend towards a different play in this specific situation.
  • 11 replies
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
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      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      I think it's terrible play. There is no use in goin all in on this flop.
    • mashmash
      mashmash
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      Joined: 30.08.2007 Posts: 29
      I think it is fine in tournament play to get it in there with 15 outs but it is completely situational when to do it. I think the play here is incorrect because the board is already paired making the flush less valuable. Unfortunately the other guy was never going to fold.
    • Unam
      Unam
      Moderator
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      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      I don't think his play is so bad, the timing was horrible, but no one could have known this.
    • gustamaneh
      gustamaneh
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      Joined: 04.09.2007 Posts: 84
      i think it was idiot
      even having a draw here, the pot was 900 and he went all in... why that? if the pot was at least bigger...
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      well it's definitely a move i would make if the pot was 1/3 of my stack at the time. as it stands, with the pot only 1/4 of stack it's a marginal move.

      he has excellent fold equity with his push, and is usually only very slightly behind if he's called. and the pot is not insignificant...

      i think all the critics do not realise that matusow couldn't see the opponents cards before he made that move ;) . after all, he is not juanda or negreanu!
    • gustamaneh
      gustamaneh
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      Joined: 04.09.2007 Posts: 84
      of course he coudlnt see
      but why all in, and not a 3/4 bet?
    • chenny8888
      chenny8888
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      Joined: 03.10.2007 Posts: 19,324
      because if he bets 3/4 and villain just calls, he will be way behind on the turn if the turn comes non-diamond. he will then still be putting in his money while he is more than a 77/23 dog just because of pot odds and the BIG pot at the turn.

      with the shove he is putting in his money when he is most likely only slightly behind, and is able to see both cards.

      he is also able to maximise fold equity.
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      This is just a Matusow blowup. I'd like to see that video again with Kaplan commentary ...

      He just didn't feel like making tough decisions playing a flush draw OOP, so he decided to just make 1.
    • debelinko
      debelinko
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      Joined: 11.04.2007 Posts: 182
      I played a similar hand lately: click here. What do you think about my play?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
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      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      That was well played. You didn't have a lot left, less than potsize and the flop is certainly contibettable.
      Just unlucky, but you had no choice.
      Furthermore, the board was unpaired.

      So you have 15,5 outs (9 flush, 6 overcard, a half backdoor straight), with a few discounted if he had JJ or AJ.
    • k1ngenx
      k1ngenx
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      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 40
      i guess matusows best play(if he wants to go with it) is obv a crai ai here.
      lots of fe left, and seems much stronger.