[NL2-NL10] JJ waiting for blinds to come to me.

    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Sorry for not using the hand converter. Nothing was running at the time, and I don't remember all of the details exactly.

      Hand 1:

      I just doubled up, and I've hit a enough playable hands to be labeled as a TAG.
      The guy before me sits in MP+2 and I'm pretty sure he is a SSS.
      I hold JJ and he makes a standard raise after 2 limpers. There are now 9.5 bbs in the pot, 6 from his raise and 3.5 from limpers and blinds.
      I have 28 bbs.

      What I reasoned was that this is a push or fold scenario. After a flat call, he will always cbet and I am 9:1 to hit a Jack. Also, a Q, K, or A will hit the flop about half the time I think. So I cannot flatcall.

      A fold means I invest nothing in the pot.

      A push means that I risk 28 bbs to win 9.5 bbs, however I know he is a SSS and his stack to amount raised ratio means he will call with any holding he raised with (unless his raise was tilty, but he had been playing pretty solid on about 4 tables). So there is no fold equity.

      I know my chances after a push are about 50.2%, however Titan takes a rake of the pot, and I'm not sure how the limpers affect my play.

      I folded.

      Hand 2:

      I just doubled up with JJ vs AQ in UTG+1 position.

      I am now in UTG position with the same hand, JJ, with $3.00, or 30 bbs.

      After a raise, if I am reraised, I think I have to fold based on how tight the table is.

      I didn't think that raising to 4 bbs with a marginal holding UTG was good, so I folded. I was prepared to fold after a reraise behind me, and thanks to that, I was also ready to simply fold preflop. I did not consider the factor of possible flatcalls behind me. Ever since joining the table, all UTG raises were either reraised or folded to all around.

      This may have been a bad play, because this was the last of my 12 tables to finish up after my first upswing in a very long time.

      I folded.

      Thoughts?
  • 7 replies
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 24.12.2007, 00:22
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 24.12.2007 00:22.
      Hand 1:

      you explained it yourself very well... I call it safety gambling, because even if you get the worst of it your move still isn`t wrong in terms of EV... so why not to gamble? (the reason why not to gamble is increased variance) :) Besides, some things could happen (tilt, disconnect, misclick :D :D :D ) But I guess its very individual decision... If you don`t feel like gambling on your stack - fold... totally ok.
      I am pretty much sure that limpers and blinds will cover the rake...

      Hand 2:

      Well, i don`t think it is correct to make a decision based on table image... according to SSS you are allowed to push... in contrast with previous example, where you didn`t invest anything, here you invested 4BB... so I think fold here has -EV.
    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Originally posted by xylere
      Hand 2:

      Well, i don`t think it is correct to make a decision based on table image... according to SSS you are allowed to push... in contrast with previous example, where you didn`t invest anything, here you invested 4BB... so I think fold here has -EV.
      I guess my wordy sentences and redundant statements might have confused you.

      I open-folded hand 2. But you're saying that I should push a reraise if I decided to invest 4 bb?
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 24.12.2007, 00:36
      • This post has been edited 5 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 24.12.2007 00:57.
      In the first hand both moves (fold and call) have zero EV.

      While in the second one fold has -4BB EV and push is zero EV at least, since I believe we can assume somewhat the same range 99+, AQs+, AQo+... You can say that it is too loose, but I believe on avergae it is actually too tight... (considering the limit). Therefore, I assume we will win slightly more than in 50% of the time...

      You should fold it when you have statistics on reraiser... and if his calling range is tigher then the one I assumed.
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Update: with 30BB its ok to fold (though i still think that mathematically correct play is push, unless you have statistical proof that it isn`t))


      Btw, those two hands you were thinking to post in BSS forum? It is still SS) besides, there is a middle stack in between that is also should be played differently) But with a stack less than 30BB we are still making push or fold decisions pre-flop (after re-raise)
    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Puschkin told me to post in BSS and you said you wouldn't mind if I posted here.

      I decided on posting here, and BSS players can take a look if they want. This really is kinda middle ground, but I think the types of decisions are more geared towards SSS.

      Thanks!
    • xylere
      xylere
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2007 Posts: 2,939
      • 24.12.2007, 01:13
      • This post has been edited 1 time(s), it was last edited by xylere: 24.12.2007 01:13.
      well, 30BB stack is still a short stack. the middle stack is from 40 to 60BB. And if you had such a stack you would likely call pr-flop re-raise and make decision on flop. Playing short stack is about making pre-flop decisions that likely commit you on flop... while playing middle stack is about making flop decisions, that likely commit you on turn. (c) Ed miller

      So the conclusion is if re-raiser is loose (more than 7% PFR) you should push, otherwise fold is ok. Against unknown fold is also correct decision (at least secured)
    • mashmash
      mashmash
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2007 Posts: 29
      Good assessment and explanation xylere. I agree that the hand range estimate is probably too tight even. At that level I don't think you should be folding down JJ in any position with a small stack unless you are against the tightest of shortstackers who open in early position, even so, you should usually play it, it is a premium hand. Your thinking is reasonable though and when unsure about a situation i think it is always best to fold and look for a better spot. Xylere is definitely right though in saying you should not be making these decisions based on table image
    • mikeymoo
      mikeymoo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2007 Posts: 80
      Okay. Thanks.

      For the record, this was definitely a "last-table-don't-wanna-lose-my-upswing" play.

      I know what to do in the future now. (Not be a chicken ;) )