[NL2-NL10] NL5 AK turned to bluff

    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      13/7/3bet:3/14k hands AF:2 WTSD:25 WSD:53

      I'm sure he has no set because he wouldn't just call the flop cbet.
      So actually then there are only overcards in his range, which I actually beat.
      Turn J i think helped him, because KJ/AJ are in his calling range, but I think he won't go with these hands to showdown. As he has only WTSD:25.

      So I've continued in my line and went allin (next hard point for him, we were both very deep, I think he won't call even with KQ as we played and he's actually "thinking" reg.)

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      SB:
      $13.86
      BB:
      $4.00
      UTG1 (Hero):
      $13.75
      UTG2:
      $1.62
      MP1:
      $12.51
      MP2:
      $6.93
      MP3:
      $4.72
      CO:
      $5.18
      BU:
      $5.32


      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with K, A.
      Hero raises to $0.20, UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.20, 6 folds, 5 folds, 4 folds, 3 folds, 2 folds, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.47) 7, T, 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.36, MP1 calls $0.36.

      Turn: ($1.19) J (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.80, MP1 raises to $2.30, Hero raises to $13.19, MP1 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.49.
  • 3 replies
    • partane
      partane
      Silver
      Joined: 15.11.2009 Posts: 3,500
      OMG!!! :f_o:

      Preflop wp

      Flop check, opponent has too ofter made hand or draw which he raises or calls. Simply you don't have enough folding equity to C-bet.

      Turn check, he probably has hand there. Opponent is very tight and he is not bluffing or floating ever. All draws in his range have been fulfilled. 3-bet is very poor play, it is definitely -EV to shove more than 250bb stack for a bluff. You can't be sure your opponent in NL5 is able to fold even bottom flush there. He probably does not have straights or worse in he's range because he raises turn, maybe KQ could be raise/fold.
    • KillerFishes
      KillerFishes
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Originally posted by partane
      OMG!!! :f_o:

      Preflop wp

      Flop check, opponent has too ofter made hand or draw which he raises or calls. Simply you don't have enough folding equity to C-bet.

      Turn check, he probably has hand there. Opponent is very tight and he is not bluffing or floating ever. All draws in his range have been fulfilled. 3-bet is very poor play, it is definitely -EV to shove more than 250bb stack for a bluff. You can't be sure your opponent in NL5 is able to fold even bottom flush there. He probably does not have straights or worse in he's range because he raises turn, maybe KQ could be raise/fold.

      ye it can looks really weird I know:D I'm not sure if it's good move actually :) However, did you check his stats properly? There's no way he has bottom flush and there is no way he will go to showdown with pair, two pairs on this flop (and it's not even in his range)...
      sets aren't actually available as he will very often raise them on flop and not on the turn.

      If he has sets anyway, he will have to just fold them, because there is possibility of straight and flush so he can try raise/fold as he did.
      He will do that even with KQ as you said.
      And definitely he can try it with AJ,KJ, because I am betting pretty small so he can think that I have just drawing hand and I'm playing it agressively.

      Ofc I won't do this move against any random player but I have a lot of hands on this guy and I know he knows me as a "reg" ... So that's why I think this move is +EV. He will continue only with flush and fold everything else.

      And for the flush:

      He will 3bet me with AK maybe AQ (I won't count it now, let's take the more pesimistic way) ...
      So he can have flush only with AT,AJ,AQ,KQ,KT,KJ,QT,QJ as the T is on flop he can continue only with
      AJ,AQ,KQ,KJ,QJ as I hold AK and on the turn is J it's even less probably that he has these hands :) And sometimes I will maybe even hand QJ make fold.. but I don't think I can count with that ^^

      Actually that's why I think he won't have the flush so often ^^ However, I think you're right it's still not enough to make it profitable :)

      Have a nice day
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello KillerFishes,

      I don't like the 2nd barrel the turn, I'd rather just give it up there. And as played even worse shove, being so deep I would like never risk with such a move against that kind of opponent, the AF of 2 ain't that big. Only reasonable hand we could make him fold is like FD with the Ace or whatsoever which wanted to build up the pot or something similar. Other made hands I don't really think that he is capable folding, sets/straights, those opponents on those limits are just too bad.

      Best regards.