[NL2-NL10] NL10 AQs

    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      villain unknown 24/14over 21 hands
      Preflop: is 3bet ok? flat call is another option i guess, but its way better to keep initiative i think.
      Flop: I make a cbet and he shoves over me. Is he ever doing this with a FD or OESD? (or both?) does he have a set (QQ unlikely, 99 or 55?)? how likely is it that he's holding some other pp like TT or JJ or even KK and AA? (if so, why does he not 4bet it preflop?) is he doing this with AQ or KQ or 9x as well?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($10)
      BB ($10.15)
      UTG ($3.61)
      UTG+1 ($12.45)
      CO ($5.50)
      BTN ($10.05)

      Dealt to Hero A:spade: Q:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, fold, BTN calls $0.70

      FLOP ($2.10) 9:heart: 5:spade: Q:heart:

      [color=red]Hero bets $1.70, BTN raises to $9.05 (AI), Hero ? [color]
  • 1 reply
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello purplefizz,

      Since we really don't know the opponent then often times it's hard to say what he is thinking. But I will just give a small overview of how I would take the shove from unknown.

      Is he ever doing this with a FD or OESD? (or both?)

      Yes, that could be. Sometimes they see like having a lot of fold equity and that's why they shove. Although it's hard to put him exactly on that hand range without any previous information.

      does he have a set (QQ unlikely, 99 or 55?)?

      That's very likely as well. But often times those players just like to slowplay sets, even when they have them here. But of course they are capable of shoving with sets as well.

      how likely is it that he's holding some other pp like TT or JJ or even KK and AA? (if so, why does he not 4bet it preflop?)

      I don't think that he would shove there with TT or JJ but rather with KK/AA. And he didn't 4bet just for the reason that he tried to trap you and his plan was to shove it when you hit something or continue aggression.

      is he doing this with AQ or KQ or 9x as well?

      One thing is rather unlikely is that he is doing that with just 9x, it could be like he has some hand like 5x which has also a flushdraw with it but it's very unlikely that he is doing this with just 9x. AQ/KQ are both very close as well, although it's doable.

      But overall about the play, since we decided to 3bet preflop and likely even hit our TP I guess it's kinda close. Often times such a shove just tries to gain maximum fold equity but of course it could be that he is as well already have us beat. Therefore if we see him being like more passive guy and rather shoving here with really good made hands then you can likely even find a fold. But if you have seen him doing any kind of ridiculous moves earlier then might be even considered Calling there. He might as well come out with FD or even TP or whatsoever.

      Just for example we need like 38% equity to make it profitable and if for example we put him on such a range:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 41,710% 32,155% 19,111% 48,734% AsQs
      Player 2: 58,290% 48,734% 19,111% 32,155% KK+, 99, 55, AQs, KQs, JhTh, AQo, KQo

      We can likely consider this as a Call. Although overall, it's very close. Often times I like to do such Calls vs known opponents and therefore I guess I'd just fold it without really good background on him.

      Best regards.