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[NL20-NL50] 25nl AJ

    • YUKNOW
      YUKNOW
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.12.2009 Posts: 403
      Villain is 18/15 AF 1.7, Agg% 39, 3bet: 7.2 over 434 hands, im guessing a reg (first day i play in the room). Also my image was pretty bad at the time :f_p:

      Should I have raised the turn? :f_confused:

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($46.63)
      BB ($28.04)
      UTG ($25)
      CO ($6.45)
      Hero ($25)

      Dealt to Hero A:diamond: J:diamond:

      UTG raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.85) 6:club: 7:diamond: J:club:

      UTG bets $1.23, Hero calls $1.23

      TURN ($4.31) 6:club: 7:diamond: J:club: 9:diamond:

      UTG bets $2.87, Hero calls $2.87

      RIVER ($10.05) 6:club: 7:diamond: J:club: 9:diamond: 8:club:

      UTG bets $6.70, Hero calls $6.70
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      His river bet looks like Tx or a flush.

      The question is if we can expect a player like this to bluff much on this river. Given we called 2 streets on this board I don't expect many 25nl villains to bet this river as a bluff.

      So I think we have to fold as I can't see a worse hand valuebetting and can't see many bluffs (especially since he opens UTG).

      If you expect him to have AQ/AK and expect him to bluff always than calling is fine but that is a bit far fetched in my opinion.
    • ReyPeon
      ReyPeon
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2009 Posts: 1,122
      Is it possible to minraise turn and see if we can get a free showdown?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by ReyPeon
      Is it possible to minraise turn and see if we can get a free showdown?
      nl everything is possible :D
      I´d likely would raise/call turn, since it looks very strong, so overpairs might easily fold and if he would put me on move, he can shove his fd himself. I´d make it 6.5$ to have more fold equity against overpairs and if he calls then I´d take my free showdown
      Don´t expect overpairs to bet river, also don´t expect random hands to bluff river, so I think you´re mostly beat and I´d fold to river barrel