So much for variance!

    • lfcday
      lfcday
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      Joined: 01.10.2009 Posts: 38
      Hi everyone,

      People on this site are always going on about variance so I just thought I'd share with everyone that I've just been playing rush poker on full tilt and been dealt j :spade: 5 :heart: eight times in a row! So much for variance eh!
  • 52 replies
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
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      Joined: 06.12.2010 Posts: 527
      If true then that's pretty crazy. Same suits + any proof?
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      The probability of getting dealt the same cards (like as mentioned :spade: J :heart: 5) 8 times in a row is 1/7207832214414719611776. I guess there is bigger probability for Earth to stop existing at this moment than get dealt the same cards 8 times in a row :D
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
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      Joined: 05.10.2008 Posts: 2,688
      Thats actually a nice example of variance.
    • Alficor1
      Alficor1
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      Originally posted by lfcday
      Hi everyone,

      People on this site are always going on about variance so I just thought I'd share with everyone that I've just been playing rush poker on full tilt and been dealt j :spade: 5 :heart: eight times in a row! So much for variance eh!
      But how much did you lose?
    • lfcday
      lfcday
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      Joined: 01.10.2009 Posts: 38
      What file is the hand histories put in on your hard drive and I will post them on here? And I lost one small blind lol 2 cents
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
      Thats actually a nice example of variance.
      exactly :)

      @Bliausmas: how is it possible to determine a probability of something happening that has never happenned before :D ? Or should I say something that you do not know if it is even possible... (It's still possible to determine the probability of someone being dealt the same cards in a row a million times, even though that probably never happenned...)
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
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      Not sure what you mean by that schnitzel...

      Surely he just multiplied the probability of getting Js 5h (1/number of unique hands) together 8 times.
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      I guess there is bigger probability for Earth to stop existing at this moment than get dealt the same cards 8 times in a row :D
      Was referring to this part, the probability of getting the same hand 8 times in a row is just a matter of simple maths :) .

      And it was a philosophical question of course...
    • Andyuk18
      Andyuk18
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      I see. :)
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Originally posted by Schnitzelfisch
      @Bliausmas: how is it possible to determine a probability of something happening that has never happenned before :D ? Or should I say something that you do not know if it is even possible... (It's still possible to determine the probability of someone being dealt the same cards in a row a million times, even though that probably never happenned...)
      Well hipothetically speaking Earth should stop existing when all the atoms and atom particles in it stops moving. That would happen if the temperature would reach sub-zero. But of course I didn't mean to say smth serious in the first post, just took an example that would look cool :D
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
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      This thread turned into something brutal =)
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Yeah :) But it still would be nice to see some proofs about this "8 in a row" thingy..
    • JuiceQuadre
      JuiceQuadre
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      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Yeah :) But it still would be nice to see some proofs about this "8 in a row" thingy..
      i wouldnt really care about the proof from this specific player. This happening is possible. One day it has to happen to some player. =)
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
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      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      i got dealt AA 72 times in a row. but my dog ate the hand histories so cant show it
    • aielex
      aielex
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      Joined: 04.02.2011 Posts: 31
      This 8 in a row thing is surely exaggerated.
      It definetly wasn't the same suit
      You see odds of getting exacly the same cards in a row is
      1/x = (1/52*1/51)^8 => x=2446741'892'176'363'060'535'033'856 ( thats 2 octillion or 2 billion billion billion)
      And odds of getting J8 off different suits
      1/x = (4/52*4/51)^8 => x=569'676'489'610'309'493 (569 million billion and its a prime :o)

      I can believe that more but i still think you just exaggerated.
      And got it like 4 times or something like that:)
      odds for that are only 1 in a 754 million
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Originally posted by JuiceQuadre
      Originally posted by Bliausmas
      Yeah :) But it still would be nice to see some proofs about this "8 in a row" thingy..
      i wouldnt really care about the proof from this specific player. This happening is possible. One day it has to happen to some player. =)
      It is possible, but c'mon, the possibility is one of billion gazillions :) I don't think there were played enough hands in poker history (both online and live) that we could say "yup, it's variance". We would need 7207832214414719611776 hands sample for that. Well ok, 100 times smaller sample would still be pretty much fine - does somebody have it? :D
    • Bliausmas
      Bliausmas
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      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 741
      Originally posted by aielex
      This 8 in a row thing is surely exaggerated.
      It definetly wasn't the same suit
      You see odds of getting exacly the same cards in a row is
      1/x = (1/52*1/51)^8 => x=2446741'892'176'363'060'535'033'856 ( thats 2 octillion or 2 billion billion billion)
      And odds of getting J8 off different suits
      1/x = (4/52*4/51)^8 => x=569'676'489'610'309'493 (569 million billion and its a prime :o)

      I can believe that more but i still think you just exaggerated.
      And got it like 4 times or something like that:)
      odds for that are only 1 in a 754 million
      The first answer is a possibility of getting dealt two exact cards, in the same order (like everytime :spade: J first, :heart: 5 second), 9 times in a row. To find a possibility of 8 times in a row it's enough to use a power of 7 (I mean ^7), because the first time of these 8 we can get any 2 cards, and we need to get the same cards for 7 times again then.
      And another answer is a possibility of getting J8o 9 times in a row, but again in the same order (like everytime J first, 8 second).

      I wouldn't like to be a math nazi :D but I believe the numbers you meant to find are:
      1. (2/52*1/51)^7
      2. (8/52*4/51)^7
    • aielex
      aielex
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      Joined: 04.02.2011 Posts: 31
      Originally posted by Bliausmas


      I wouldn't like to be a math nazi :D but I believe the numbers you meant to find are:
      1. (2/52*1/51)^7
      2. (8/52*4/51)^7
      Wow your right :P im so stupid :f_mad:
      So its
      http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2Fx+%3D+%282%2F52*1%2F51%29^7&asynchronous=false&equal=Submit
      http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=1%2Fx++%3D%28+8%2F52*4%2F51%29^7
    • joecar
      joecar
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      Joined: 09.04.2008 Posts: 347