Low Limit Draws...

    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      ........I have been having a torrid time with flush and straight draws recently.

      Typical Hand.

      Full Tilt Poker $20,000 Rush Guar (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t140/t280 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1198002
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: t29410 M = 45.60
      SB: t27818 M = 43.13
      Hero (BB): t13472 M = 20.89
      UTG: t21895 M = 33.95
      UTG+1: t34198 M = 53.02
      UTG+2: t38411 M = 59.55
      MP1: t16225 M = 25.16
      MP2: t15270 M = 23.67
      CO: t87144 M = 135.11

      Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is BB with 8 :spade: Q :spade:
      1 fold, UTG+1 calls t280, 5 folds, SB calls t140, Hero checks

      Flop: (t1065) 8 :diamond: K :club: Q :heart: (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets t1065, UTG+1 calls t1065, SB folds

      Turn: (t3195) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets t3195, UTG+1 calls t3195

      River: (t9585) A :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t9585

      The Mathematics

      I think I have this right.

      Chance of making Straight Draw 5:1; Chance of Making Flush Draw 4:1; Chance of making Gutshot 11:1

      Pot Odds on Turn 2:1
      Bet of 1065 to win 2030

      Pot Odds on River 2:1
      Bet of 3195 to win 6380

      As I understand it if the pot odds are worse than the chance of making your hand then calling is an unprofitable play in the long run.

      Now I appreciate that I am a bit frustrated because the last 7 times I have been in this situation, some fucker has made a stupid play and got lucky on the river... 2 were gutshots straights FFS!!!!!

      But my question is...........

      As these players are not going to fold whatever the bet size (I am guessing they haven't a clue about pot-odds) is it +ev to overbet the pot and really take them to the cleaners when they miss?

      Cheers

      Jass :D
  • 2 replies
    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      Tried out raising big........

      Full Tilt Poker $7,500 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1200840
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: t3630 45.38 BBs
      MP1: t2057 25.71 BBs
      MP2: t6165 77.06 BBs
      CO: t2445 30.56 BBs
      BTN: t6765 84.56 BBs
      SB: t4425 55.31 BBs
      BB: t8223 102.79 BBs
      Hero (UTG): t5223 65.29 BBs

      Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is UTG with A :spade: A :heart:
      Hero raises to t240, 2 folds, MP2 calls t240, 2 folds, SB calls t200, BB calls t160

      Flop: (t960) 9 :heart: J :heart: 4 :club: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t1520, MP2 raises to t5925 all in, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls t3463 all in

      Turn: (t10926) 5 :club: (2 players - 2 are all in)

      River: (t10926) Q :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

      Final Pot: t10926
      MP2 shows 7 :heart: T :heart: (a flush, Queen high)
      Hero shows A :spade: A :heart:
      MP2 wins t10926

      Flush and gutshot straight draw I appreciate..

      But the pot odds are still awful....

      FFS ?(


      I actually think it is just a bad run - in the same session I had A7 fl A all in v 77 - no flush draw, no straight draw and the 7 came on the turn - 1 fucking out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    • jass1960
      jass1960
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.04.2010 Posts: 709
      They just will not fold........

      Full Tilt Poker $6,000 Guarantee (1r+1a) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1201003
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: t4792 M = 8.19
      UTG+2: t3295 M = 5.63
      MP1: t1780 M = 3.04
      MP2: t12588 M = 21.52
      CO: t4609 M = 7.88
      BTN: t7427 M = 12.70
      Hero (SB): t17362 M = 29.68
      BB: t7608 M = 13.01
      UTG: t16030 M = 27.40

      Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is SB with A :club: A :spade:
      UTG raises to t480, 3 folds, MP2 calls t480, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1680, 1 fold, UTG calls t1200, MP2 calls t1200

      Flop: (t5505) 8 :diamond: 2 :heart: 6 :club: (3 players)
      Hero bets t5505, UTG folds, MP2 calls t5505

      Turn: (t16515) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets t10152 all in, MP2 calls t5378 all in

      River: (t27271) Q :heart: (2 players - 2 are all in)

      Final Pot: t27271
      MP2 shows 6 :heart: A :heart: (a flush, Ace high)
      Hero shows A :club: A :spade: (two pair, Aces and Eights)
      MP2 wins t27271

      nor can I win :D