# Low Limit Draws...

• Bronze
Joined: 15.04.2010
........I have been having a torrid time with flush and straight draws recently.

Typical Hand.

Full Tilt Poker \$20,000 Rush Guar (Rebuy) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t140/t280 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1198002
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t29410 M = 45.60
SB: t27818 M = 43.13
Hero (BB): t13472 M = 20.89
UTG: t21895 M = 33.95
UTG+1: t34198 M = 53.02
UTG+2: t38411 M = 59.55
MP1: t16225 M = 25.16
MP2: t15270 M = 23.67
CO: t87144 M = 135.11

Pre Flop: (t645) Hero is BB with 8 Q
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t280, 5 folds, SB calls t140, Hero checks

Flop: (t1065) 8 K Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t1065, UTG+1 calls t1065, SB folds

Turn: (t3195) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets t3195, UTG+1 calls t3195

River: (t9585) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets t9585

The Mathematics

I think I have this right.

Chance of making Straight Draw 5:1; Chance of Making Flush Draw 4:1; Chance of making Gutshot 11:1

Pot Odds on Turn 2:1
Bet of 1065 to win 2030

Pot Odds on River 2:1
Bet of 3195 to win 6380

As I understand it if the pot odds are worse than the chance of making your hand then calling is an unprofitable play in the long run.

Now I appreciate that I am a bit frustrated because the last 7 times I have been in this situation, some fucker has made a stupid play and got lucky on the river... 2 were gutshots straights FFS!!!!!

But my question is...........

As these players are not going to fold whatever the bet size (I am guessing they haven't a clue about pot-odds) is it +ev to overbet the pot and really take them to the cleaners when they miss?

Cheers

Jass
• 2 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 15.04.2010
Tried out raising big........

Full Tilt Poker \$7,500 KO Guarantee No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t40/t80 Blinds - 8 players - View hand 1200840
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t3630 45.38 BBs
MP1: t2057 25.71 BBs
MP2: t6165 77.06 BBs
CO: t2445 30.56 BBs
BTN: t6765 84.56 BBs
SB: t4425 55.31 BBs
BB: t8223 102.79 BBs
Hero (UTG): t5223 65.29 BBs

Pre Flop: (t120) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to t240, 2 folds, MP2 calls t240, 2 folds, SB calls t200, BB calls t160

Flop: (t960) 9 J 4 (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t1520, MP2 raises to t5925 all in, SB folds, BB folds, Hero calls t3463 all in

Turn: (t10926) 5 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t10926) Q (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t10926
MP2 shows 7 T (a flush, Queen high)
Hero shows A A
MP2 wins t10926

Flush and gutshot straight draw I appreciate..

But the pot odds are still awful....

FFS

I actually think it is just a bad run - in the same session I had A7 fl A all in v 77 - no flush draw, no straight draw and the 7 came on the turn - 1 fucking out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
• Bronze
Joined: 15.04.2010
They just will not fold........

Full Tilt Poker \$6,000 Guarantee (1r+1a) No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds + t25 - 9 players - View hand 1201003
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: t4792 M = 8.19
UTG+2: t3295 M = 5.63
MP1: t1780 M = 3.04
MP2: t12588 M = 21.52
CO: t4609 M = 7.88
BTN: t7427 M = 12.70
Hero (SB): t17362 M = 29.68
BB: t7608 M = 13.01
UTG: t16030 M = 27.40

Pre Flop: (t585) Hero is SB with A A
UTG raises to t480, 3 folds, MP2 calls t480, 2 folds, Hero raises to t1680, 1 fold, UTG calls t1200, MP2 calls t1200

Flop: (t5505) 8 2 6 (3 players)
Hero bets t5505, UTG folds, MP2 calls t5505

Turn: (t16515) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t10152 all in, MP2 calls t5378 all in

River: (t27271) Q (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t27271
MP2 shows 6 A (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows A A (two pair, Aces and Eights)
MP2 wins t27271

nor can I win