$3 SNG "downswing". Playing according to ICM trainer.

    • terpesheva
      terpesheva
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2009 Posts: 156
      Hello everyone!

      Played about 250 $3 turbos and at the moment my roll is 25-30BI down. Been like this for around 60 sngs now and I can't get it up =(.

      I try to play according to ICM trainer (usually score about 92% on it) but make mistakes some times, though not too many.

      Having reviewed my hands in SnG wizard, i think most of my moves are ICM correct.

      Should I adjust my ranges in any way since i'm playing a microlimit or should I stick to Nash? (i think ICM trainer teaches nash, doesnt it?)
      I'm not whining about losing too much, and I know about variance, but I'm really worried about my adjusted $EV graph on HEM that is sloping down =(

      What adjustments to ICM trainer strategy would you recommend?
      Thank you.
  • 13 replies
    • farbwenz
      farbwenz
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2010 Posts: 359
      in my opinion, bigstacks on these limits call u with almost any two (no mater how many BB left) so you should tighten against these when blinds are still quite low.

      On the other hand, u can push like crazy when blinds increase, you will get called with pocket pairs and many Ax but that can still be far off from the optimal calling range. When they start insulting you and call u a fish, then you know that you are on the right track^^ however, after pushing a few hands in a row they start to call u with any 2 , so you might have to tighten up again after some pushes.

      As for calling, most opponents push by far too tight, so you need to tighten up, too. especially the regulars have fairly tight calling and pushing ranges, and most of them don't adjust when you exploit that^^

      i don't use sng wizard, but i would recommend giving all opponents a "standard hand range" (e.g. 44+ A7+ KJ+ or something like that) for calling and see how your pushes develop then.

      but that's just my view, might be horribly bad and wrong^^
    • Janosikgdy
      Janosikgdy
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.05.2007 Posts: 4,472
      In sng downswing can go down even 50 bi, or breakeven over 1k games.

      i 40 down, and I am sure that I play enought to be winning at my limit.


      If you play like icm says keep it going and should be fine with time.
    • evertonroar
      evertonroar
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.06.2009 Posts: 737
      "What adjustments to ICM trainer strategy would you recommend?"

      I was adviced by a coach here to change the "edge" to zero (i think default is 3). I think the key is to understand why something is correct in ICM not just get the asnwers right (im still working on this). Many of the ICM questions are very straightforward and not knowing anythign about iCM you shoudl get 70-80%. have you tried making the setting harder? Another thing i found useful as playing around with the edge (ie what if i make the requried edge 10? is it still a push? why?)

      also remember at the $3 tables (especially party poker if you happen to be there) are not playing ICM. so they are pushing to tight and often calling to light. you need to make adjustments for this.

      you say you have reviewed in icm trainer? have you played around with the calling ranges of the apponents (increase / decrease aggressiveness) to match whcit you observed. so this to see if its still a push or fold.

      hope this helps a bit
    • rhezz
      rhezz
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.02.2010 Posts: 40
      I agree. At that limit no one has a clue about nash push/calling ranges.
      They push too tight (at least most of them) and if they see someone pushing more than once, they assume that they can call with ATC.

      I have seen midstacks calling with Q7o, where they should fold to an ATC push. When the blinds increase I think it is safe to assume a calling range of 30% for most vilains. They never fold weak aces, QT+, K7+, etc...

      Thus, you have to push tight and call even tighter.
    • terpesheva
      terpesheva
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2009 Posts: 156
      Thanks for your replies.

      I've narrowed the ranges and I seem to be getting ITM more often now.

      Do such adjustments mean that I reduce variance but also reduce my ROI in the long run?

      Cheers!
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      That you see someone call with Q7o does not mean all players are calling with anything better. There are many players who do not understand the risk aversion on the bubble. However, they also don't understand how widely you are pushing, and they also don't understand pot odds. The combination often means that they call tightly on average, and your can profitably push widely. If you tighten up in fear of spite calls rather than a read that your opponents are calling too widely, then you will cut your ROI.

      ITM percentage is not important at all.
    • terpesheva
      terpesheva
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2009 Posts: 156
      Thanks. So do you suggest I push per ICM trainer unless I'm sure that the opponent is a loose caller?

      What would be the best stat to use to determine opponents' calling range?
      I still have a week of HEM trial so better make use of it=) ))
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      You don't have to be certain, but you should only tighten up if you have a specific reason not to make the pushes which are normally profitable.

      For example, if you have pushed the last 2 hands, you might not want to push JTs even if JTs is normally just within your pushing range. Your image is looser, and on average people will call wider if you have been pushing, even though some opponents will be oblivious.

      I'm not sure which stat makes players the most likely to make spite calls. A high VPIP sometimes suggests that the player will not respect your range, and will make spite calls when you are pushing with a tight range. Perhaps a low fold-to-steal percentage also indicates that the player will overdefend the blinds against pushes and not just smaller raises.
    • monkee1980
      monkee1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.04.2008 Posts: 352
      My suggestion: STOP PLAYING TURBOS!!

      -I`m serious...

      (I`m only silver status as the acct. I play the most with is not
      connected/tracked to PS :( )) anyways...

      --but believe me...it will increase your winrate/ROI !!

      just try it and see what happens, works fine for me with 30player 5-10$ Bi SNGs

      btw I play without using a tool but I win many of the big/key pots due to the NOTES I make on players and their betting behaviour (and I can modulate my play/adapt more easily so that it is not as transparent and robotic as the usual ICM-type of play (know what I mean??)

      like Bruce Lee said: "Be water, my friend"


      uhm..yea..IMO...of course...
    • terpesheva
      terpesheva
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2009 Posts: 156
      phzon,
      thanks, I'm getting the idea now.
      So do loose pushes against loose callers actually reduce my ROI or do they just increase my variance to stupid levels?

      I've got another little question: how should I adjust my play when I'm on a 4man bubble with a mid stack, locked behind a big stack but with 2 small stacks to my right? I think this puts me into a hairy spot because small stacks keep attacking me for blinds while I cannot really do the same to the big stack due to his increased calling range.

      Monkee, thanks for the advice,
      Your suggestion makes sense if you can handle > 4 tables and still play excellent game with all the notes taking, etc. For me, 3 tables is the most I can handle for quality poker.
      With turbos I can have no problems playing 6-8 tables at my noob level and turbos are probably twice as fast as regular sng's, so quantity's gonna beat variance =) Plus, my 20% ROI for 4 tourneys might be the same as my 4% for 14=)

      I think that if you really like reading players, you'll be better off playing stud cause you get no stats there and reads really matter (I used to play stud before I stupidly cashed out so now I start on stupid microstakes again =(( ).
    • terpesheva
      terpesheva
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.02.2009 Posts: 156
      Nearly 400 sng's played and my EV line in HEM is around -5BI and its been there for about 300 tourneys.
      From the way HEM calculates luck adjusted winnings I see that it does not reflect my skill in the short run (say i push QQ on a bubble and get called by AA - thats my EV down) but is it normal to have EV line running down or around 0 for quite a while?

      Thanks!
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      If your opponents are calling wider than Nash, and you push wider than Nash, the extra pushes decrease your ROI.

      Style changes in SNGs have remarkably little effect on variance. You do not end the tournament with 2000 chips. You will have to gamble sooner or later. Focus on making winning plays, not variance.

      You have to learn to deal with many situations, including how to get proper value out of the second stack on the bubble. You might not realize how widely you can correctly push into the chip leader, particularly if your image is tight. You might not realize that you are not so risk-averse against the short stacks, even if it is the bubble and losing against them would be uncomfortable. Uncomfortable is very different from bubbling out.

      If your red line is flat for 400 tournaments, this is moderate evidence that you are beating the table average of losing the rake, but also moderate evidence that you are not a solid winner. The red line of a solid winner can be flat or negative for a while, but it does approach your true win rate faster than the green line does.
    • monkee1980
      monkee1980
      Silver
      Joined: 01.04.2008 Posts: 352
      hey,

      >Your suggestion makes sense if you can handle > 4 tables and still play excellent game with all the notes taking, etc. For me, 3 tables is the most I can handle for quality poker.<

      -I normally play 4 tables, though I would say 3 is perfect for quality too...(no..1 would be perfect for an A-game performance of course)whatever..
      if I bust at one tourney I open another one..if then I am actually ITM at 2 or 3 tables I dont open any new ones and play the remaining games as good and as far as I can until they`re finished..
      then I usually take a break and play some more..(or play mtt or cashgame)

      >With turbos I can have no problems playing 6-8 tables at my noob level and turbos are probably twice as fast as regular sng's, so quantity's gonna beat variance Plus, my 20% ROI for 4 tourneys might be the same as my 4% for 14<

      -I can really understand what you mean here, but for me it makes more sence to go for the quality poker as it boosts the learning progress a little more

      >I think that if you really like reading players, you'll be better off playing stud cause you get no stats there and reads really matter<
      -yea lol..I have been playing stud for a while..made some good profit in the beginning, moved up in limits lost some stacks, moved down and quit right in time to break even..anyway I prefer NLH

      -but what I meant was the actual focus on implication of reads in addition to using player-stats (which in turn I urgently have to do to increase my winnings I guess) ((can´t use the elephant at the moment for different reasons, but that`ll probably change soon (working on it :) ) ))

      I think it is OF COURSE good to stick with the ICM (and all the mathematical bachground)..but for me it`s just always a good feeling experiencing that I have improved my game (is that a correct sentence??whatever `scuse my english) - and the most fun too- as I`am not going only for the money but for the development of actual skill(s), which is the key to beeing a winning player on upcoming limits...

      so thats it for now...funny how I talked myself into this thread as it initially started because of my disaffection for turbos :)

      good luck ...good hands ...keep on grinding!