[NL2-NL10] KK vs a nit of a wet flop

    • bobtheslob
      bobtheslob
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2010 Posts: 24
      Villain is 16/14 over 146 hands and hasn't done anything out of line during the session.

      I think this flop hits too much of his calling range !

      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      CO ($3.36)
      Button ($4.50)
      SB ($10.40)
      BB ($10.36)
      Hero (UTG) ($13.32)
      MP ($10)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with K, K
      Hero bets $0.35, MP calls $0.35, 4 folds

      Flop: ($0.85) 4, 5, 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.85, MP raises $2, Hero folds

      Total pot: $2.55

      Would you fold here ?
  • 7 replies
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      Hey,
      I think your play is too weak. If he calls pre-flop TT-AKs and gets it in on this flop with overpair or nut flush+overcards, he is not out of line. + if u even fold your KK in this spot then he could make it as bluff also with really wide range. I think i would just ship the flop to get more money against TT+QQ cause he will be scared when overcards fall.
    • bobtheslob
      bobtheslob
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2010 Posts: 24
      I suppose his range looks like this PF - 22-QQ, AXs

      From the play post flop we can discount 22 / 33 as this play is unlikely from him

      Obv 55 / 44 / 88 have us crushed that leaves 66 / 77 / 99 / TT / JJ / QQ

      Hmm I agree with your comments I should have shipped it in OR 3 bet then fold to a shove ?
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      We have a lot of equity against him if we but this range(without bluffs).


      Board: 4h 5d 8d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 30.158% 29.54% 00.62% 9650 202.50 { QQ-88, 55-44, AdKd, Ad8d }
      Hand 1: 69.842% 69.22% 00.62% 22615 202.50 { KcKd }

      But this range should be most likely one :

      Board: 4h 5d 8d
      Dead:

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 42.167% 41.41% 00.76% 8609 157.50 { QQ-JJ, 88, 55-44, AdKd }
      Hand 1: 57.833% 57.08% 00.76% 11866 157.50 { KcKd }

      We are still ahead. I hope now u understand how wrong is to raise fold or even just fold without redas tha he makes it with just nuts.
    • bobtheslob
      bobtheslob
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.12.2010 Posts: 24
      Thanks :)
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello bobtheslob,

      Often times such 16/14 guys are as well very passive postflop being that nitty preflop which is actually pretty nitty for SH game. Therefore one thing what I would do on flop is like bet ~$0,70 and at the best just Call it. Getting there directly in doesn't make really sense unless we can really consider him raising a lot of CBets and as well playing very aggressively his draws. Although I wouldn't really expect that from such opponents. Therefore I guess I'd Bet/Call and reevaluate on further streets or sometimes even Bet/Fold if the opponent rather has a small AF and as well raise cbet value.

      And to the range, he can't have AdKd since we have the Kd and as well we can't even be sure that he is playing his overpairs this way, those kind of opponents usually play overpairs rather passively than aggressively. And as well you didn't add 67 into the list which makes a straight.

      Best regards.
    • kevvu
      kevvu
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.05.2008 Posts: 1,527
      Hey,
      Yep i added accidently Adkd, but if we have that Kd then it doesnt change equity anyway, so it is even better for us. Do u really think that nit will play 67 there? I think he will even fold all this kind hands pre-flop. I agree that we could call as well to bluff induce +we have BDFD, but how u will continue non diamond and diamond cards on turn + when ace hits and he continues?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by kevvu
      Hey,
      Yep i added accidently Adkd, but if we have that Kd then it doesnt change equity anyway, so it is even better for us. Do u really think that nit will play 67 there? I think he will even fold all this kind hands pre-flop. I agree that we could call as well to bluff induce +we have BDFD, but how u will continue non diamond and diamond cards on turn + when ace hits and he continues?
      The problem with those kind of guys is as well that we can't just put them on a flushdraw either, the 67 was just an assumption. And often time the problem is that those kind of guys just don't play aggressively their overpairs. They rather just play is passively even if the board is so dangerous and as well he mentioned that he hasn't done anything like that during the session, rather has played passively. That's also a sign where we could assume that he rather has a big and strong made hand, that could easily be even sets and sets only.

      And if we just Call it on flop and he still continues like betting pretty strong then we can imagine being behind and as well vs a stronger hand. If an Ace comes we still can pretty easily fold and as well any diamond. Although I somewhat imagine that if a diamond comes he will rather calm down.