[NL2-NL10] NL2 - AKs

    • cruizer
      cruizer
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2009 Posts: 17
      Villain is 13.51/5.41 after 37 hands - so quite tight even if it's from a very small sample.

      As he raises from MP3 I put him on 88+,ATs+,KQs,AKo. Seems reasonable to re-raise and find out a bit more. He calls, making me put him on a decent made hand (99+) rather than KQ, AT or anything like that.

      When he shoves on flop I have to put him on a set or an overpair, but I think he would've shoved/re-raised me pre-flop if he had AA or KK, so 99, TT, JJ or QQ basically leaving him with 99 or QQ from shoving with that flop.

      The question creeping up in my mind when reviewing this hand post-play is - with my nut flush draw on the flop potentially beating a set, but knowing that he potentially has 6 outs to make a full house, what pot odds do I need to make a call here?

      I have 9 outs for my nut flush and he 6 for a full house and 1 for quads. I get the odds (3.3:1 vs needed 2:1) to call if I ignore the fact that he may make a full house (which I didn't think of then), but taking that into account, I probably don't, right? So nut flush draw vs set on flop = -EV in most cases?

      As said before, I'm trying to figure out the math here, so someone help me please. :)

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      CO:
      $0.43
      BU (Hero):
      $0.77
      SB:
      $0.74
      BB:
      $1.77
      UTG2:
      $0.47
      MP1:
      $2.11
      MP2:
      $0.31
      MP3:
      $0.61


      Preflop: Hero is BU with A, K.
      3 folds, MP3 raises to $0.04, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.12, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.08.

      Flop: ($0.27) 9, 8, Q (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $0.20, MP3 raises to $0.49, Hero calls $0.29.

      Turn: ($1.25) 8 (2 players)


      River: ($1.25) J (2 players)


      Final Pot: $1.25.
  • 5 replies
    • Tampaloeres81
      Tampaloeres81
      Bronze
      Joined: 08.03.2009 Posts: 1,416
      Originally posted by cruizer
      1. Villain is 13.51/5.41 after 37 hands - so quite tight even if it's from a very small sample.

      2. As said before, I'm trying to figure out the math here, so someone help me please. :)

      Hi,

      1. The sample is way of. So you cant really do something with it.

      2. For the math, use the equilator (which can be downloaded via this site). Dial in the range you assigned to him, the flop and your cards and see the result in %EQ you have against that range. Evaluate that against the pot odds and you know whether to call or not ;) So 1. calculate your EQ vs his range; 2. calculate your pot odds.

      T.
    • cruizer
      cruizer
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2009 Posts: 17
      I know the sample's small, but still an indication. And setting his initial range to around 5% seemed reasonable. He could be looser, but I doubt he could be much tighter at least.

      Using Equilab against the updated hand range of 99, QQ that I had when he shoved, I'm behind with 74,48/25,52.

      I need to pay $0,29 to potentially win $0,96 giving:
      EV(total) = EV(0,2552 * $0,96) - EV(0,7448 * $0,29) = $0,176 - $0,216 = -$0,04

      2BB negative EV to call using Equilab's equity.

      Well, that helps me identify a leak at least. I have a tendency to overvalue my flushdraws!

      Good then that I tend to spend 1/4 time playing poker, 1/4 time reviewing played hands, 1/4 reading strategy articles and posting hands in the forum and 1/4 time practicing with Equilab's trainer function. Less time to make -EV calls at the tables! :)
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by cruizer
      I know the sample's small, but still an indication. And setting his initial range to around 5% seemed reasonable. He could be looser, but I doubt he could be much tighter at least.

      Using Equilab against the updated hand range of 99, QQ that I had when he shoved, I'm behind with 74,48/25,52.

      I need to pay $0,29 to potentially win $0,96 giving:
      EV(total) = EV(0,2552 * $0,96) - EV(0,7448 * $0,29) = $0,176 - $0,216 = -$0,04

      2BB negative EV to call using Equilab's equity.

      Well, that helps me identify a leak at least. I have a tendency to overvalue my flushdraws!

      Good then that I tend to spend 1/4 time playing poker, 1/4 time reviewing played hands, 1/4 reading strategy articles and posting hands in the forum and 1/4 time practicing with Equilab's trainer function. Less time to make -EV calls at the tables! :)



      You get 3:1 and that's 25% at worst case scenario, How can you ever bet/fold here especially on your limit where AQ/KQ is even more the rule than exception in terms of showing up here?

      Did you do that EV calculation based on equilab or did you made it up yourself?

      - Gerv
    • cruizer
      cruizer
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2009 Posts: 17
      Originally posted by Gerv
      Did you do that EV calculation based on equilab or did you made it up yourself?
      It's based on Equilab. 75/25 dog with my AcKc vs his range of 99, QQ after that flop and shove.

      See my reasoning in the original post for why I didn't put him on AQ, KQ.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Yes but I kinda overruled that because
      1) 2NL is a random limit
      2) You have no sample
      3) He minraises (=wide range) hence I would believe more that he can even see TPNK as nuts


      And yes if this player is only c/Raising Sets in a 3bet pot, don't bother cbetting but really he is doing it with worser FDs, Toppair and stuff.