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[NL20-NL50] [SH] 4B pot Checked down

    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      iPoker - €0.50 NL - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: €50.00
      BTN: €82.28 From LP: VP:33/PR:21/WTSD:27/3B:10/4B+:2/AggF (F,T,R):43,46,36
      SB: €16.94
      BB: €78.80
      Hero (UTG): €76.08
      MP: €50.75

      SB posts SB €0.25, BB posts BB €0.50

      Pre Flop: (€0.75) Hero has A:club: Q:diamond:

      Hero raises to €1.75, fold, fold, BTN raises to €4.00, fold, fold, Hero raises to €12.00, BTN calls €8.00

      Flop: (€24.75, 2 players) 6:club: T:spade: 9:club:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      Turn: (€24.75, 2 players) 7:heart:
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      River: (€24.75, 2 players) 4:diamond:
      Hero checks, BTN bets €14.50, fold

      I 4B bluff here because from LP he is 3B 10% and only 4B+ 0.42% (should be AA).
      I am not sure about his calling range.

      He folds to CBet 74% but here we are in 4B pot so i am not sure I can really use this stat.
      If I CBet I am probably making AK fold but not JJ-KK (at least not on the flop). So I think that I will have to barrel on the turn as well to make JJ,QQ fold.

      Once he Checks behind should I fire at anytime?
      Because I think he would bet with JJ+ since I would more than likely CBet with my overpairs. So when He Check Behind his hand looks like AJ+.
      The only problem is that if I fire on Turn or River I don't represent that much.

      So maybe a CBet to make AK fold and then give up if he Calls?
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      well he can have there also AQ/AJ/KQs and some other hands than just TT+/AK, so I´d prefer flop c-bet to 12$ and shove turn if it is club, K, Q and likely b/c with A
      If you check you´re going to c/f most of the times, so I don´t really like that line too much consider you 4-bet and have initiative
    • Dublimax
      Dublimax
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2008 Posts: 2,233
      I think that at NL 50 people would call 4B with AK or QQ+.

      So when he calls I think we are behind and the CBet would make AK fold but not QQ+. Ok let's try to have a mathematical approach here

      Let's assume he shove 50% of his AA. That leaves us with:

      6 combos of AA
      6 combos of KK
      3 combos of QQ (since I have a Q)
      12 combos of AK (since I have a A)

      So 15 combos that wouldn't fold to CBet and 12 Combos that would Fold.
      he would fold 44% of the time and we invest 12 to win 24.75 which is 32%.

      So a CBet would be profitable (and then give up).

      Is it a correct way to answer my question?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Dublimax
      I think that at NL 50 people would call 4B with AK or QQ+.

      So when he calls I think we are behind and the CBet would make AK fold but not QQ+. Ok let's try to have a mathematical approach here

      Let's assume he shove 50% of his AA. That leaves us with:

      6 combos of AA
      6 combos of KK
      3 combos of QQ (since I have a Q)
      12 combos of AK (since I have a A)

      So 15 combos that wouldn't fold to CBet and 12 Combos that would Fold.
      he would fold 44% of the time and we invest 12 to win 24.75 which is 32%.

      So a CBet would be profitable (and then give up).

      Is it a correct way to answer my question?
      well your assumption that nl 50 people would slowplay pf QQ+ and call AK, can´t be really true a lot of times, since players would 5-bet imo a lot of times KK/AA and likely also AK.
      But on your calculations, since you also have A, then he should have 3 combos of AA and if you think he would fold to your c-bet AK and would not call pf wider range than QQ+/AK, then c-bet is profitable, since he would fold half the times