[NL2-NL10] NL50 FR - KK, allin PF

    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Titan No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50BB (Titan HH Converter by Kreatief)

      Button ($55.55)
      SB ($56.45)
      BB ($8.75)
      UTG+1 ($46.40)
      UTG+2 ($18.80)
      MP1 ($49.25)
      MP2 ($60.43) (Hero)
      MP3 ($11.40)
      CO ($19.85)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K:diamond: , K:heart:
      UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 folds, MP1 raises to $5.00, Hero raises to $15.00, 6 folds, MP1 raises to $40.00, Hero raises All-In $60.43, MP1 raises All-In $49.25,

      I know I should hardly ever fold KK PF, but could this be one of those times?
      Villain Stats:
      VPIP: 11.22
      PFR: 5.1
      WTSD: 40
      Hands: 98

      Although I didn't post the results, you certainly know what he had. :(
  • 14 replies
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      I'd have folded.
      a) A raise 10 BB large usually means strength
      b) 3-betting small after you showed great strength means he's really sure about his hand, as his small bet says "I know you gonna call me"

      Perhaps I'd have called, but I suppose not. Here he's practically screaming "I got aces"

      The small reraise pretty much eliminates the possibility of it being a bluff or middle pair (often played like that on TV, where fish think they learn their stuff). Even QQ won't show that strength in fish.
      So it's AA or KK, 20 % equity or 50 % equity.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Can´t understand why he makes 10xBB raise pre-flop. If this would be normal raise, I would consider fold after his 4-bet. but here, don´t know. Seems too strange to me.
    • timukasr
      timukasr
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.05.2007 Posts: 1,820
      Originally posted by SonicXT
      I'd have folded.
      a) A raise 10 BB large usually means strength
      b) 3-betting small after you showed great strength means he's really sure about his hand, as his small bet says "I know you gonna call me"

      Perhaps I'd have called, but I suppose not. Here he's practically screaming "I got aces"

      The small reraise pretty much eliminates the possibility of it being a bluff or middle pair (often played like that on TV, where fish think they learn their stuff). Even QQ won't show that strength in fish.
      So it's AA or KK, 20 % equity or 50 % equity.
      Villain could easily play KK same way, Puschkin once said that never fold KK preflop :D .
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      Sure he can, but what's the odds of him having KK when you got KK.
    • kexix
      kexix
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.12.2006 Posts: 83
      i never fold this

      a) A raise 10 BB large usually means strength - no, it just means he's stupid
    • helemaalnicks
      helemaalnicks
      Silver
      Joined: 21.09.2007 Posts: 7,195
      i encountered a player once, who raised as strong as his hand was strong. So AA was 22bb, KK 18, etc.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by kexix
      i never fold this
      You never fold KK? Or you never fold KK in this spot? If that's the case why don't you fold in this spot?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      It's just how some people play, using the "never fold KK preflop" as one of the few certainties in poker, because you could often be up against an underpair, AK or suck out on someone else's AA. Thank Harrington for some people thinking that way, I just disagree with that and take my time before making that decision (especially in a deepstacked cashgame)

      While it's a good guideline for beginner, just like the "don't get stacked with TPTK", it's just not always valid in my opinion and after a while you feel when it's the right time to diverge from these kind of guideline.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I also don't like the "never fold KK pf" thing. I hardly ever do it, but it's difficult to fold this hand, there are some crazy players who go all the way in PF with worse hands.

      I'd like to know why, in this case, against a player with these stats, I should fold KK (or not fold).

      He's a tight player, so he's certainly not holding trash, that inclines me towarding folding.
      But on the other hand, he overplays his hands (WTSD:40), so that inclines me towards pushing.
      Because if he can 3-bet here with QQ+, I have enough equity to go all-in.

      But I'm in doubt if he would 3-bet QQ. With these stats, what you guys think?
    • SonicXT
      SonicXT
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2007 Posts: 4,736
      In 98 hands, he raised twice preflop. It's not a lot to anything on, but let's assume that 5% PFR is how he always plays.
      You get this range then : TT+, AQs+, AQo+
      A reraise range for a tight play like him is usually 2-3 times as narrow, which narrows it down to (QQ), (AKs), AA, KK

      WTS is irrelevant though, that's only important for postflop play. He only saw 10 flops anyway, in which he went to the end 4 times which very good starting hands. He put money in 11 times preflop and folded once preflop after calling or raising before (derived from the stats).

      If you want to go for it, fine.
      If you don't want to risk a stack over it, it's also fine given these stats.

      I've just not seen a lot of players do this with QQ, some do, but most don't if they're thís tight.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      I think WTSD is relevant, if he goes to a lot of showdowns, that increases the chances of him overplaying his QQ PF.
      But you're right, it's a very small sample. I should probably fold it here.
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      I'm all-in. If he has aces, make a player note that he raises aces larger than other hands so that you can exploit his mistake in later hands.
    • Faye6891
      Faye6891
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.11.2007 Posts: 1,234
      Originally posted by Thorsten77
      I'm all-in.
      Can you explain a little a bit why you go all-in here? Don't tell me you never fold KK PF. :P
    • Thorsten77
      Thorsten77
      Black
      Joined: 28.05.2006 Posts: 12,896
      There is only one hand (AA) that beats you. You are getting good odds as theres already 65$ in the pot and you only have to pay ~35$ more. If there is the slightest chance, that your opponent has any other hand than AA, you are making a huge mistake by laying down KK - and no one can tell me that you can put him on aces for sure without any really good read (which you typically don't have at the micros as there are so many players).