[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL20 Playing 99 hard - reasonable line or a spew?

    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      I've been raising rather loosely and here I get a 3bet from a player with 3bet range of 11%. I call and plan to play it hard when the flop comes low (or when I hit a set of course). The flop is low and he makes a cbet. He's cbet is 75% so it doesn't mean he has me beat. Considering his wide 3bet range I should be ahead most of the time, right? Somehow I still feel like a fish. Was my line reasonable?



      MicroGaming - €0.20 NL - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: €25.53
      BTN: €20.00
      SB: €21.98
      BB: €20.00
      UTG: €22.31
      Hero (MP): €20.62

      SB posts SB €0.10, BB posts BB €0.20

      Pre Flop: (€0.30) Hero has 9:club: 9:heart:

      UTG calls €0.20, Hero raises to €1.00, fold, fold, SB raises to €3.40, fold, fold, Hero calls €2.40

      Flop: (€7.20, 2 players) 6:club: 5:club: 5:diamond:
      SB bets €4.80, Hero raises to €17.22 and is all-in, SB calls €12.42

      Turn: (€41.64, 2 players) Q:diamond:

      River: (€41.64, 2 players) 5:heart:

      Hero shows 9:club: 9:heart: (Full House, Fives full of Nines) (PreFlop 19%, Flop 10%, Turn 0%)
      SB shows Q:club: Q:spade: (Full House, Queens full of Fives) (PreFlop 81%, Flop 90%, Turn 100%)
      SB wins €39.56
  • 11 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello fuzzyfish,

      Preflop: Depends a lot, how many hands on him? What were the table dynamics before your play? Has he 3betting you on early hands? I might even just give it up right preflop, since often times such a 3bet vs MP is often times stronger than vs a BU or something similar.

      As played
      Postflop: The problem with shoving here is that, what worse will Call you? Do you think that he will Call your shove with AK? Or do you think he has smaller PPs in his range here? I guess I'd just Call it and reevaluate on turn and likely even giving it up when he ships it.

      Best regards.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      I had 200 hands on him, not very much but still something. As I said I was raising loose, about 24% of the hands, and I don't think he put me on a monster. Often aggressive opponents 3bet early open raises to get people off their small pairs, imo... So idk.

      On the flop I figure his range consists mainly of overcards, so my shove is for protection. I don't know about calling. After a call I have third of my stack in, and folding to a second barrel from an aggressive opponent seems kinda lame. But thats only my opinion of course.

      Any further thoughts welcome.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      On the flop I figure his range consists mainly of overcards, so my shove is for protection. I don't know about calling. After a call I have third of my stack in, and folding to a second barrel from an aggressive opponent seems kinda lame. But thats only my opinion of course.

      Then say as well his CBet flop and CBet turn.

      He ain't going to call us anyways with overcards, that's the point, we wont get value from worse hands anymore while he still could shove it on turn, like with hands AK or whatsoever.
    • N0pr3s3n7
      N0pr3s3n7
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,275
      Originally posted by fuzzyfish
      I had 200 hands on him, not very much but still something. As I said I was raising loose, about 24% of the hands, and I don't think he put me on a monster. Often aggressive opponents 3bet early open raises to get people off their small pairs, imo... So idk.

      On the flop I figure his range consists mainly of overcards, so my shove is for protection. I don't know about calling. After a call I have third of my stack in, and folding to a second barrel from an aggressive opponent seems kinda lame. But thats only my opinion of course.

      Any further thoughts welcome.
      3beting iso raise = monster vs unknown easy snap fold pre.rest is history
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      His flop cbet is 75 and turn cbetis 80. If I call here, his likely to fire second barrel with overcards, or an overcard might come on board - in which case I'll have to fold and give third of my stack to him without a fight.

      I'm currently reading Ed Millers "Small Stakes Holdem" where he says that putting third of your stack in and then folding to aggression when your not obviously beat is a disaster. Thats what I'm considering here.

      Plus I've seen plenty of LAGs call with AK here, because the have 6 outs and they think there's a good chance you shove with air.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      His flop cbet is 75 and turn cbetis 80. If I call here, his likely to fire second barrel with overcards, or an overcard might come on board - in which case I'll have to fold and give third of my stack to him without a fight.

      While he has such CBets then I usually let him just continue his bluffs with overcards and even a overcard comes like J, Q or whatsoever we still can Call. With shove you just making him fold AK.

      I'm currently reading Ed Millers "Small Stakes Holdem" where he says that putting third of your stack in and then folding to aggression when your not obviously beat is a disaster. Thats what I'm considering here.

      I don't think that putting 1/3 of your stack into the pot, while you still have left like 60-70% of your stack is bad? If we facing such an opponent who doesn't bluff-2nd barrel anyways with air then we have a easy decision. And if he has like CBet turn 40% or even less, and still 2nd barrels there then we can put him on a strong hand. And why is it bad to make the fold and save the 70% of your stack? Doesn't make sense.

      Plus I've seen plenty of LAGs call with AK here, because the have 6 outs and they think there's a good chance you shove with air.

      You didn't mention that he was loose or anything. :) If no stats then I'd put him on unknown and against unknown I wouldn't hope that he is Calling there with worse like AK hands, while he has still 70% of his stack left. Would you Call here with AK if someone shoves like this?

      Therefore unless I know the opponent better I am not shipping the flop. Next time write as well the stats and table dynamics. :)
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Well about dynamics I wrote that I had been open raising very loosely and he was 3betting 11% of his hands so he cant be a nit :)

      I'd consider calling with AK when I'd have a strong feeling that an aggressive player is trying to play back at me. I'd had six outs plus maybe a backdoor flush draw (don't laugh, that's an additional 1 out :D )

      Last but not least, only hands that beat me here is TT+, and thats what... like 2% of the overall hand range, right? Thats the number I took as a reference.

      Of course it could very well be that I'm playing too loose and should tighten up a bit. Thank you for your thoughts.
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Well about dynamics I wrote that I had been open raising very loosely and he was 3betting 11% of his hands so he cant be a nit

      Why do people think that high 3bet does always mean that they are like maniacs? If you will move up the limits you will even face nits like 16/14 who are as well 3betting a lot in good spots, and especially good MSS players and so on.

      I'd consider calling with AK when I'd have a strong feeling that an aggressive player is trying to play back at me. I'd had six outs plus maybe a backdoor flush draw (don't laugh, that's an additional 1 out )

      I would like never Call here vs such a Call preflop and shove on flop, it's like always a PP which tries just to protect from overcards as you do. And most likely only Call with higher PPs.

      Last but not least, only hands that beat me here is TT+, and thats what... like 2% of the overall hand range, right? Thats the number I took as a reference.

      You didn't take into factors that he as well is 3betting vs MP, which usually a stronger range from his side than vs BU. So therefore I don't really see what I can do here with the 2% of knowing him what beats us. Unless of course you proof some other calculations what you made with the 2%.

      Of course it could very well be that I'm playing too loose and should tighten up a bit. Thank you for your thoughts.

      You are welcome! Yes, I have been facing such 3bets and aggressors a lot on higher limits and there you have to adjust a lot more than just on those smaller limits where the people usually do 3bet only for value not as bluff or anything like that. Sometimes skipping and folding the hand is way better than taking risky spots.
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Ok, here's a calculation:

      Let's assume he's 3betting tighter against MP. Let's say he's only 3betting 6% of his hands in that case. Logical range for that would be:

      AJo+, ATs+, KQs, TT+

      That range breaks down into:

      Pairs (TT+) - 2%
      Overs - 4%

      Therefore I assume he has overcards roughly 66.7% of the time. Am I wrong?
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Originally posted by fuzzyfish
      Ok, here's a calculation:

      Let's assume he's 3betting tighter against MP. Let's say he's only 3betting 6% of his hands in that case. Logical range for that would be:

      AJo+, ATs+, KQs, TT+

      That range breaks down into:

      Pairs (TT+) - 2%
      Overs - 4%

      Therefore I assume he has overcards roughly 66.7% of the time. Am I wrong?
      And what can you do with the number that you know he has 66,7% of the time overcards? And only that we know the mostly he is going to fold his overcards in this case unless he is a station. What do you think what should be better now? And how often does he hit his 6outers even if we Call and induce him to ship it with overcards on turn when he might fold them on flop?

      If he even has overcards here like:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 26,948% 26,948% 0,000% 73,052% ATs+, KQs, AJo+
      Player 2: 73,052% 73,052% 0,000% 26,948% 99

      Then we are far ahead of him and shouldn't really be that scared. But anyways, that's not the case, more often I am just folding it preflop being in this situation. :) While being on BU or something similar I might change my mind or you would give some more reads/stats from him, not that only 11% of 3bet, which doesn't proof much. :(
    • fuzzyfish
      fuzzyfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.01.2010 Posts: 862
      Ok, I believe you now :)